在德国，行动胜千言

    就在全球股市担心本周召开的欧元区峰会可能传来噩耗之时，德国国内的最新发展情况或许能为人们提供一些信心，让人不再对这场旷日持久的欧债危机过于悲观。德国总理安格拉•默克尔的态度本周出人意料地来了个180度大转弯，同意救助全德16个负债累累的联邦州，发行共同债券——联邦州债券（Deutschland Bond）。为此，地方州同意将一些财政权力上交柏林。这样的模式似乎为德国与欧元区成员国建立更紧密的财政联盟铺平了道路。

    德国官员试图撇清联邦州协议与欧债危机有何关联，但这一事件无论从时机，还是框架上看，都绝非巧合。默克尔似乎是在向欧洲邻国发出信号，她并不排斥在整个欧元区实施类似的债务共担安排。可以将德国的联邦州协议为模板，创立一个财政联盟和一个共同的欧洲债务工具（即欧元债券）。如能达成这样的协议，对于稳定危机而言无疑是迈出了一大步，欧洲终于可以重整旗鼓，再次出发了。

    不同于欧洲其他所有权力都归首都的中央集权制国家，德国是一个联邦制国家，权力分布于柏林和16个联邦州之间，类似于美国一样的分权制。德国的各个联邦州有很强的预算权力，可以无需获得柏林的批准，随意征税和支出。

    而和欧元区很多邻国一样，德国一些联邦州发现自己已难以获得足够低的融资利率来填补不断扩大的债务窟窿。更糟的是，一旦执行新的欧盟财政契约（明年即将生效），这些联邦州将更难获得融资。

    根据今年1月在欧盟几乎全盘通过的新财政契约，欧盟成员国需要将总的结构性赤字占GDP的比例降至0.5%以下。这意味着德国的联邦政府和地方州政府都必须遵守。分拆开来，每个德国联邦州政府的结构性赤字/GDP比例将不能超过0.15%。对于德国很多联邦州来说，特别是那些位于德国西北部的一些联邦州，要执行这样的上限是不可能完成的任务。比如，德国人口最多的联邦州北莱茵-威斯特法伦（North Rhine-Westphalia），2014年最多只能新承担9亿欧元债务，但事实上该州至少需要借33亿欧元才能维持各项正常开支。

    因此，可以想见德国各联邦州对必须要执行新财政契约有多不乐意。即便他们同意债务上限规定，如果没有像希腊那样的紧缩政策，事实上他们也做不了什么来达到这一目标。因此，上周末，德国联邦政府和所有16个联邦州坐下来试图想出贯彻财政契约的办法。各个州对此意见并不统一，预算赤字低的联邦州反对任何形式的债务共担。但令人意外的是他们居然最终达成了一致，正好赶在本周关键的欧元区峰会之前。

    While the markets fear the worst from this week's upcoming eurozone summit, recent developments inside Germany could provide some much needed optimism in the long-running European debt crisis. In a surprising reversal from her former position, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, agreed this week to effectively bail out Germany's 16 debt-ridden states and issue a common debt instrument, the Deutschland Bond. In exchange, the states agreed to give up certain fiscal powers to the federal government in Berlin, paving the way for Germany to form a stronger fiscal union with its eurozone counterparts.

    German officials have tried to downplay the significance of the state deal as it relates to the eurozone debt crisis, but its timing and structure doesn't seem like a coincidence. Merkel seems to be sending a message to her European counterparts that she is open to the idea of a similar debt-sharing arrangement across the eurozone. The state deal could be used as a template for creating a fiscal union and a common European debt instrument, known as a eurobond. Such an agreement would go a long way to stabilizing the crisis, allowing Europe to finally pick up the pieces and move on.

    Unlike other European nations that have a unitary governmental structure, where nearly all power is centralized in the capital, Germany is a federation, where power is distributed between the capital and its 16 states, similar to how power is divided in the United States. The German states have very strong budgeting powers, giving them the ability to tax and spend as they please, without the need for approval from the federal government in Berlin.

    Like many of the members of the eurozone, some German states have found it difficult to borrow money at low enough interest rates to continue funding their widening debt hole. To make matters worse, complying with the new EU fiscal pact, which is set to go into effect next year, will make it even more difficult for the states to fund themselves.

    Under the fiscal pact, which was agreed to by nearly all EU member states in January, countries are required to limit their total structural deficit to less than 0.5% of GDP. That means both Germany's federal and state governments must comply. When all split up, the state and local governments in Germany will only be able to run a structural deficit of 0.15%. For many of the states, most notably those in the northwest part of the country, adhering to those rules would be impossible. For example, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, would be limited to taking on just 900 million euros in new debt in 2014, despite needing nearly 3.3 billion euros to stay afloat.

    The states were understandably upset about having to comply with a dictum coming from Brussels. Even if they were on board with the debt limits, there was really nothing they could do to comply, short of implementing the kind of austerity measures that crashed the Greek economy. So over the weekend the federal government sat down with all 16 German states to try and hash out a way to comply with the fiscal pact. There was dissention among the states, as those with smaller budget deficits opposed any form of debt sharing. But they surprisingly came up with a solution, just in time for the critical eurozone conference this week.