企业利润下滑不全是坏事

    美国企业利润在一年的头三个月出现下降，为大萧条以来首次。虽然降幅有限，但下降64亿美元（降幅0.3%）仍不容忽视，因为这可能预示着美国企业的盈利趋势正在发生改变。此前，尽管美国失业问题依旧，但美国企业的利润却保持了增长。

    不过出人意料的是，利润下降也有好处：因为企业高管们或许会意识到需要增加投资。诚然，利润下降会让公司对扩张更为谨慎，但鉴于导致利润减少是海外市场销售滑坡所致，可能会让公司有压力在国内寻找新的增长途径。

    经济学家们担心，糟糕的企业利润可能会将经济推入全面衰退。目前，尚不清楚最近的企业利润下降想过去的两次衰退一样，是新趋势的开始，还是1998年景象的重演。当时，即便企业利润大幅下降，经济增长依旧。这次利润下降来得很不是时候，因为当前劳动力成本上升，同时海外的激烈竞争也导致制造企业无法上调产品售价。

    当然，盈利和经济增长之间的关系并不总是泾渭分明。利润下降，经济并不一定会下滑。2007年的金融危机中，企业利润与就业同步下降。但在经济衰退结束后的几年里，随着很多公司削减成本，扩张进入新兴市场寻找新的增长点，利润随之快速回升。

    盈利糟糕也可能导致股市螺旋向下。当人们期待增加派息时，盈利糟糕对股市而言无疑是个坏消息。但正如Money Magazine的保罗•林姆最近所指，盈利下降或许不会像有些人担心地那样大幅拉低股价。

    盈利影响股市表现，但主要是长期影响。从过去来看，林姆称，盈利增长和股价波动之间并没有直接关联。1938年以来，股市最好的16年中有8年赶上了企业利润下降。而且，在股市最差的16年中有13年企业利润是增长的——这说明利润并非股价表现的晴雨表，事实上可能正好相反。利润放缓或许有好处。

    过去两年企业利润回升并大幅增长，但企业依然不愿扩大招聘或投资。高管们手握创纪录的现金，声称经济看来非常不确定，在美国增加招聘和投资的理由不够充分。事实上，很多公司都依赖海外销售，特别是在中国、巴西和印度等新兴市场。但最近的盈利下滑说明这一策略的作用有限。

    For the first time since the Great Recession, corporate profits fell during the first three months of this year. While the dip may be small, the $6.4 billion (or 0.3%) decline is significant as it just might inspire a shift in tone within corporate America, which saw profits soar even as joblessness has persisted.

    Ironically enough, there's an upside to down profits: Executives may realize they need to invest more. Admittedly, weaker profits could make companies even more fearful about expanding, but given that the decline reflects slumping sales from overseas markets, it could also put new pressures on companies to find new ways to grow at home.

    Economists worry that lousy corporate profits could send the economy into a full-fledged recession. It's still unclear if the latest decline in earnings will be the first of many, similar to the past two recessions, or if we will see a repeat of 1998, when the economy continued to grow even as corporate profits fell sharply. The pinch came amid rising labor costs and the inability of manufacturing companies to raise prices on its products in the face of stiff competition from abroad.

    To be sure, the relationship between profits and GDP growth is not always clear cut and just because earnings fall doesn't mean the economy will follow suit. During the 2007 financial crisis, corporate profits fell in tandem with employment. But in the years following the end of the recession, profits quickly rebounded as many companies cut costs and expanded into emerging markets for growth.

    Weak earnings could also send the stock market spiraling downward. This would spell bad news to shareholders in a year when some expect stronger dividend payouts. But as Paul Lim ofMoney Magazine pointed out recently, the fall in earnings might not drive stocks down as much as some think.

    Profits influence the stock market's performance, but primarily in the long-term. Using the past as a guide, Lim argues that there's no direct correlation between earnings growth and stock price movements. Since 1938, eight of the 16 best years for stocks have coincided with declines in corporate earnings. What's more, profits rose in 13 of the 16 worst years for stocks -- further illustrating that earnings aren't a predictor of stock performance and, in fact, it just might be the other way around. There may actually be an upside to slower profits.

    As corporate earnings rebounded, and then soared, over the past two years, companies remained reluctant to hire or invest more. Executives continued building record levels of cash reserves, claiming the economy looked too uncertain to justify the costs of more hiring and investing at home. Instead, many banked on sales overseas, particularly in emerging markets including those in China, Brazil and India. However, the latest earnings decline suggest that this strategy can only take companies so far.