科技股投资者面临残酷盛夏

    对于许多人来说，夏季可能意味着惬意的生活，但对今年的科技股投资者来说就不是那么回事了。由于许多公司即将公布第二季度收益报告，最后一刻的不安情绪在许多投资者和分析师心里油然而生。

    自从7月4日独立日假日归来后，投资者见证了纳斯达克综合指数累计4%的跌幅，与此同时，科技类股中的许多大牌跌幅更大。微软公司（Microsoft）下跌6%，IBM和思科（Cisco）均下跌7%，而英特尔（Intel）跌幅则达到了8%。在大多数情况下，科技类股的下跌都伴随着分析师发布的相关公司第二季度业绩可能弱于此前预期的预警。

    今年余下的时间，形势似乎也不会明显好转。周四早盘，IT外包巨头印孚瑟斯（Infosys）的股价下跌12%。此前该公司称，其业务会在2012年下半年放缓，因来自银行和其他企业的大订单流失。印孚瑟斯首席执行官史布莱说：“目前公司面临的运营环境比4月份时更为严峻。”

    最近这一波围绕科技股的担忧情绪并不是由某个单一主要因素造成的，而是几个因素共同导致的：第二季度拖累欧洲经济的金融动荡以及中国经济放缓；颠覆性技术的崛起打击了适应迟缓的大型科技公司；以及分析师们在不确定时期的偏乐观倾向。

    规模居前的科技类公司长期以来一直依赖全球市场，但在第二季度，主要市场都无一例外地面临挑战。美国经济增长出现停滞的迹象，而中国经济也继续降温。但最令人担忧的还是欧盟。欧盟的失业率已经升至11%，部分成员国更是已经再次陷入经济衰退。

    欧盟领导人在解决债务危机方面一直行动拖沓，导致企业界的不确定性情绪挥之不去，并促使许多消费者纷纷暂停购买新产品。根据研究机构Computer Economics进行的一项调查结果，31%的受访公司计划在未来一年削减IT运营支出，而只有16%的受访公司计划提高相关支出。为了保障利润，企业纷纷削减包括新技术开支在内的各项成本。

    另外，全球IT研究和咨询公司盖特纳（Gartner）的一份报告显示，全球IT支出可能会由去年的3.5万亿美元逐步增至2012年的3.6万亿美元。盖特纳指出，特定科技领域的支出增长将会领先其他领域。例如，今年云计算领域的IT支出将达到1,090亿美元，高于2011年的910亿美元。

    虽然这对于云计算企业是个利好消息，但对于其他科技巨头来说并不一定是好苗头。企业在云计算技术上投入资金是因为其较安装和维护传统软件系统更加高效、经济。但将资金投在更低成本的云系统上则意味着：投入在往往更加昂贵的自有软件上的相关资金将会减少。包括甲骨文公司（Oracle）和IBM在内的企业都在投资云计算，即使这样做可能意味着牺牲在传统程序上的投资。

    在企业和消费者支出显著的个人电脑行业，类似的颠覆也在发生。如今，人们在购买个人电脑时往往选择购买平板电脑或亚洲企业生产的低成本个人电脑。盖特纳提供的数据显示，总体上，第二季度个人电脑发货量较上年同期下滑了0.1%，已经减少到8,750万台。对于美国制造商来说，下滑幅度要严重得多：惠普电脑（HP）和戴尔电脑（Dell）第二季度的个人电脑发货量均同比下跌了12%。

    面对这样的发货量数据，投资者很难相信科技类股会公布强劲的收益报告。事实上，有些公司已经发出预警，告诫投资者不要过于乐观。上周，高级微设备公司（Advanced Micro Devices）、美国应用材料公司（Applied Materials）和Informatica都发布了盈利可能不及预期的预警。金融数据和软件提供商Factset称，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）成分股公司中，已经有24家公司发布了负面的第二季度收益预期（即预计收益低于当前分析师的一致预期），较5年平均值高50%。

    如果这些还不足以让人担忧的话，再看看下面这组数据。Factset预计，标准普尔500指数成分股中的科技类公司第二季度收益增幅将达到3.6%。虽然这比标准普尔500指数所有成分股公司3%的收益增幅要高，但完全要归功于苹果公司（Apple）。若不计入苹果公司的预期收益增幅，其他科技公司的平均收益将下跌2%。

    甚至有人担心苹果公司的盈利。BMO Capital的一位分析师称，平板电脑销量对笔记本电脑销量的侵蚀可能正在负面影响高价MacBook笔记本的销量。其他分析师则担心，由于兼容LTE网络的iPhone在今年秋季上市已经几乎板上钉钉，许多苹果拥趸都在等待购买这款新iPhone，可能会放缓iPhone在未来几个月的销量。

    Summertime may be when the living is easy for many people, but not for tech investors this year. As the time draws near for many companies to report their second-quarter earnings, a last-minute sense of unease is setting in among investors and analysts.

    Since investors returned from their 4th of July holidays, the Nasdaq Composite has lost 4%, while many of the bigger names in tech have lost even more. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 6%, while IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) are off 7% and Intel (INTC) has fallen 8%. In most cases, the declines have been accompanied by analysts warning of a weaker second-quarter than they had previously expected.

    And things aren't looking much better for the rest of the year. Thursday morning, IT-outsourcing giant Infosys (INFY) fell 12% after the company warned that business would slow down in the second half of 2012, citing the loss of big contracts among banks and other companies. "The environment today for us is more challenging than what it was in April," said Infosys CEO S. D. Shitulal.

    There isn't one overriding reason for the recent round of tech jitters, but several. The financial turmoil that plagued Europe in the quarter, along with the cooling of China's economy; the rise of disruptive technologies that are hurting big tech companies that have been slow to adapt; and the tendency of analysts to be optimistic in times of uncertainty.

    The largest tech companies have long been dependent on global markets, but in the second quarter, every major market faced challenges. Economic growth showed signs of stalling in the U.S., while China's economy cooled. But the biggest concern was in the European Union, whereunemployment rose to 11% and some countries slipped back into recession.

    EU leaders have dragged their feet in solving the debt crisis, prolonging a sense of uncertainty among companies and prompting consumers to hold back on buying new gadgets. A survey by Computer Economics found that 31% of companies surveyed are planning to cut operational IT spending in the coming year, against 16% that plan to spend more. To shore up profits, companies are cutting costs, and that includes money for new technology.

    A separate report from Gartner said that global IT spending would rise incrementally to $3.6 trillion in 2012 from $3.5 trillion last year. Gartner noted that spending on some areas of tech will see more growth than others: Cloud computing, for example will receive $109 billion in IT spending this year, up from $91 billion in 2011.

    While that's good news for cloud companies, it's not necessarily good for other tech giants. Companies are spending on cloud technologies because it can be more efficient and cheaper than installing and maintaining older software systems. But money spent on lower-cost cloud systems means money not spent on proprietary software, which is often more expensive. Companies like Oracle (ORCL) and IBM are investing in cloud computing, even if it risks cannibalizing their older programs.

    A similar kind of disruption is happening in the PC industry, an area where companies and consumers spend heavily. When people are buying PCs they are buying tablets or low-cost PCs from Asian companies. Overall, PC shipments fell 0.1% in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2011, to 87.5 million, according to Gartner. For U.S. makers, the fall was much worse: HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) both shipped 12% fewer PCs in the second quarter.

    These are not the kind of numbers to encourage investors into believing tech stocks will post strong earnings. Already some of them have been signaling that investors shouldn't get too excited. In the past week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Informatica (INFA) warned of disappointing earnings. According to Factset, 24 companies in the S&P 500 issued negative guidance for the second quarter, 50% more than the five-year average.

    And if that's not worrying, consider this. Factset estimates that tech stocks in the S&P 500 will post earnings growth of 3.6% for the quarter. While that's higher than the 3% rate for all of the S&P 500, it's all Apple (AAPL). Exclude Apple's expected earnings growth and average tech earnings will fall 2%.

    There's even concern over Apple's earnings. The cannibalization of laptops by tablets may be eating into sales of big-ticket Macbooks, an analyst at BMO Capital said. Other analysts are concerned that, with the release of a LTE-friendly iPhone all but assured this fall, many Apple loyalists are waiting to buy iPhones, slowing sales for the next several months.