欧元危机：暑假结束，大考来临

    眼下看起来欧元危机似乎有所缓解，欧洲议员们都去享受夏日假期了。但随着9月份他们回到办公室，几乎肯定会发现家里的烈火仍在熊熊燃烧。

    下个月将做出的很多政策决定很多可能改变这场危机的走向：从确立欧洲央行（European Central Bank）作为“首席债券买家”的新职责，到想办法如何再次救助希腊。要想让市场相信欧洲央行已经掌控了这一混乱局面，欧洲央行将必须跨越重重阻碍。

    下个月至少有一天，所有的目光都将聚焦柏林：德国宪法法院将对该国参与欧洲新的救助基金一事是否违宪做出判决。如果法院判定违宪，等于是救助行动还未实施，核心部分就已夭折，届时几乎肯定会出现恐慌情绪席卷各个市场的情况。

    8月初，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉公开承诺将尽其所能来拯救欧元。此后，德国总理安吉拉•默克尔在柏林做出了类似的响应。这些掷地有声的声明意在注入信心，但两人都没有就如何兑现承诺给出明确说法。尽管如此，交易员和投资经理们还是姑且信其有，给了危机一段“暂停”时间。

    随后，所有各方都收拾行囊，分赴地中海、汉普顿或好望角等度假胜地，尽管欧元区危机的烈焰仍在熊熊燃烧。

    现在，是时候来想想欧元的下一步了。9月份，基金经理和政府官员们返回工作岗位时面对的将是毫无希望的局面。欧洲央行明里暗里地都在努力想让华尔街和其他投资者们相信，他们已经有了一项计划，将能让现金紧缺的欧元区成员国更容易借到足够多的资金来满足还债所需。

    欧洲央行具体将怎么做来平息投资者的担忧，将是进入9月份后最大的一个问号之一。从德拉吉迄今的讲话来看，似乎他想对此次危机中的两个坏小子，也就是意大利和西班牙，施以欧元区十二步计划。首先是让这两个坏小子最终承认它们有问题，向欧元区设立的两个救助基金寻求资金帮助——这两个基金是早已设立的欧洲金融稳定安排（EFSF）和即将设立的欧洲稳定机制（ESM）。一旦完成这一步，它们就可以向欧洲央行申请救助。

    救助的性质、时机和附加条件是其中最大的秘密。市场中将会流传各种版本的传言和猜测，直到9月6日欧洲央行开会讨论其策略。最可能的救助方式将是建立某种形式的永久性债券购买机制，让欧洲央行成为欧元区债券（说的更具体点，就是西班牙和意大利债券）的最后买家。

    如果各位还记得，这并不是欧洲央行第一次以这种方式干预市场。欧洲央行第一次开始购买西班牙和意大利债券是在去年，当时这两个国家的债券收益率都达到了危急水平。但今年早些时候，欧洲央行停止了购买债券，并称购买债券计划的本意是应急，而不是解决危机的长久之计。此后，两国的债券收益率现在已经重新回到了危急水平，投资者要求高溢价来持有这些债券。事实上，西班牙债券收益率自那以来已多次反弹至7%的危急水平附近，迫使该国取消了债券拍卖，同时真正开始着手缩减开支。

    但缩减开支并不能解决两国账上已有的债务问题。过去西班牙的状况看起来要比大多数国家都要好，但马德里中央政府已经不得不承担起陷入困境的地区政府和破产银行的债务。意大利在总理马里奥•蒙蒂的领导下，在改革过时、失灵的税收及支出政策上有了很大推进，但债务问题几乎毫无改观，这个国家依然在2万亿美元债务中挣扎。两国都需要一次经济大繁荣或类似的刺激推动，才能获得足够的财政收入来满足偿还债务所需要的资金。不幸的是，从它们两位数的高失业率来看，两个国家哪个都不会取得这样的大繁荣。

    It may seem like the euro crisis is on hold at the moment as European lawmakers take their summer vacations. But upon their return in September, they will almost certainly find that their house is still very much on fire.

    A number of policy decisions will be made in the next month that could alter the direction of the crisis, from establishing the European Central Bank's new role as "bond-buyer-in-chief" to figuring out how to bail out Greece yet again. There are a number of large hurdles the ECB will need to hop over before the markets accept that it is in control of the chaos.

    But all eyes will be on Berlin for at least one day next month as the German constitutional court rules on the constitutionality of the nation's participation in Europe's new bailout fund. If the court rules against German participation, panic will almost surely sweep through the markets as the core of the rescue operation fizzles before it is even able to get off the ground.

    Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, took to the stage at the beginning of August to reassure the markets that he would do everything in his power to save the euro. He was followed by German chancellor Angela Merkel who echoed similar sentiments from her perch in Berlin. The strongly worded statements were supposed to instill confidence, despite the fact that neither gave concrete answers as to how they would go about backing up their statements. Nevertheless, traders and money managers gave them the benefit of the doubt and agreed to what has amounted to a sort of "timeout" in the crisis.

    All parties then packed their bags for the Mediterranean, the Hamptons or the Cape as the eurozone remained alight.

    But it is now time to think about what's next for the euro. Fund managers and government officials will be returning in September to what appears to be a hopeless situation. The ECB has tried to reassure Wall Street and the City publicly and through backchannels that they have a plan in place that will make it easier for cash-strapped eurozone members to borrow enough money to meet their debt obligations.

    What exactly the ECB will do to calm investor fear is one of the biggest question marks going into September. From what Draghi has said so far, it seems he wants to put Italy and Spain, the current bad boys of the crisis, in what amounts to be a eurozone twelve-step program. The first thing would be for both of them to finally admit that they have a problem and to seek financial help from the two bailout funds set up by the eurozone – the already established EFSF and the coming ESM. Once they do that, then they can apply for help from the ECB.

    The nature, the timing and the conditions attached to that help is the main mystery here. Rumors and speculation will hang over the market until September 6th when the ECB gets together to talk about their strategy. The help will most likely come in the form of some sort of permanent bond-buying mechanism by which the ECB would become the buyer of last resort for eurozone debt, but more specifically, Spanish and Italian debt.

    As you may recall, this isn't the first time the ECB will be intervening in the markets in such a fashion. They first started buying up Spanish and Italian debt last year as yields reached critical levels for both countries. But the ECB stopped buying bonds earlier this year, noting that the program was supposed to be an emergency fix, not a permanent solution to the crisis. Since then bond yields in both countries have drifted back up to critical levels as investors demand a high premium to hold on to their debt. Indeed, Spanish debt bounced about the critical 7% level several times since then, forcing it to cancel debt auctions and really tighten its belt.

    But belt tightening won't work with the level of debt both nations have on their books. Spain looked like it was better off than most nations but the central government in Madrid has had to take on the liabilities of Spain's troubled regions and its insolvent banks. Italy has made great strides in reforming its antiquated and dysfunctional tax and spend policy under the leadership of Mario Monti, but it has hardly moved the needle as the nation drowns in $2 trillion in debt. Both nations would need the equivalent of a huge economic boom in order to raise enough revenue to cover their debts. Unfortunately, that isn't going to happen for either country given their double-digit unemployment numbers.