华尔街看好下半年

    几十年来，每年8月我都会在周五组织一系列的“基准”午餐会，邀请夏日在纽约长岛东部度周末的专业投资者们出席。每年三次午餐会，约有75人出席，包括对冲基金、私募股权、房地产和风险投资界的领袖人物。其中不乏亿万富翁，其他人的资产净值即便还未达到这样高的水平，但他们的观点在投资界也普遍受到尊重。

    过去两年出席者的判断绝对悲观，回顾来看，我不得不怀疑，午餐会前几周股市的表现情况对嘉宾们的观点有多大影响。如果你还记得，2010年和2011年时盛行的一种说法：“5月份就卖出，离开市场”。但今年，美国股市于6月1日创下近期低点，7、8月份股市是反弹的。

    这一切的背后，基本面并没有显著的改善。美国的经济新闻最多也只是喜忧参半。欧洲央行（ECB）仍在提供必要的流动性，努力维系欧元在欧盟（European Union）地区的地位，但长远解决欧洲顽疾所必须进行的结构性改革仍然没有着落。中国经济显然是在放缓，虽然普遍观点依然是可能会“软着陆”。但如果要让中国经济保持不低于7%的增速，显然必须得采取强有力的财政和货币政策。美国大选结果依然不定，无论是哪个候选人当选，当选后的政策作为很大程度上都取决于美国国会的构成情况以及其妥协的意愿。投资者还面临其他一些问题，但总体来看，很难理解为什么美国股市的走势会这么好。

    面对这样的现实，虽然美国股市上涨，专业投资者的反应是继续规避风险。因此，很多投资经理的回报表现不如主要股指。现在，这群人聚在一起，讨论未来一年的情况。他们都在找理由，未来是继续保持谨慎，还是变得更激进一些。要知道，过去两年在此类讨论得出总体负面的结论后，第四季度美国股市表现强劲。或许，今年午餐会上投资者们总体乐观的观点意味着未来市场还会有更多麻烦。

    For several decades I have organized a series of "Benchmark" lunches on Fridays in August for serious investors who spend their summer weekends in eastern Long Island. About 75 attended the three sessions, including leaders in hedge funds, private equity, real estate and venture capital. There were many billionaires and many others whose net worth hasn't quite gotten there, but whose views are widely respected throughout the investment community.

    For the past two years the mood has been decidedly downbeat but, looking back on it, I have to wonder how much the performance of the equity market during the weeks leading up to the lunches had something to do with how the participants viewed the outlook. If you recall, the slogan "Sell in May and go away" worked pretty well in 2010 and 2011. This year, however, the United States market hit its recent low on June 1 and stocks traded higher during July and August.

    This has all taken place against background fundamentals that have not been particularly positive. Economic news in the U.S. has been mixed at best. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has been there to provide the liquidity necessary to keep the European Union together with the euro as its currency, the structural changes that would be necessary for any long-term solution to Europe's problems have not been implemented. China is clearly slowing, and while it is still the consensus that a "soft landing" is likely, it has become clear that strong policy measures on both the fiscal and monetary fronts will be necessary to keep the economy growing at 7% or more. The outcome of the U.S. election is uncertain, and much of what could be accomplished by either candidate will be dependent on the composition of Congress and its willingness to compromise. There are other problems facing investors, but looking at the full range of issues, it is hard to understand why the market is doing so well.

    Professional investors have responded to this reality by being risk averse throughout the year in spite of the market's rise. As a result, many money managers are underperforming the major indexes, and so, as the group assembled to discuss what might happen over the coming year, they were looking for reasons to maintain their caution or to become more aggressive, knowing that the generally negative conclusions of the discussions during the past two years were followed by strong equity performance in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the generally constructive view of investors at the sessions this year means more trouble for the markets lies ahead.