欧洲已经错失良机了吗？

    最新的拯救欧元计划还是和原来一样，治标不治本。虽然市场对于欧洲央行（European Central Bank）这一最新的债券购买计划“直接货币交易”（Outright Monetary Transactions）反响积极，但随着该计划在整个欧元区实施开来，未来一段时间市场的热情肯定会逐渐消退。另外，该计划甚至可能都撑不到本周末，因为周三德国法院将就德国参与欧元区各种救助计划是否违宪做出判决。如果法院认定德国的参与危及国家主权，欧元区救助将丧失最大的出资人。这不仅会危及欧洲央行最新的计划，还可能导致欧元的终结。

    8月份欧洲人陆续度假，欧元区危机似乎也暂时歇火，然而进入9月后，情况已经再度升级。7月底时，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉曾安慰市场，称欧洲央行“愿意采取任何必要的行动来保住欧元区”。市场普遍预计德拉吉不久就会提议一个新的债券收购计划，据此欧洲央行将在二级市场买入欧元区成员国债券以降低融资成本。这一做法最初见于2010年，用于稳定希腊市场，后来也在西班牙和意大利用过。虽然德拉吉没有提供细节，但这一有力的声明足以在8月份大部分时间让市场安心。

    上周，德拉吉摊牌了。不出所料，所谓“任何必要的行动”就是一项新的债券购买计划——直接货币交易。通过这项计划，欧洲央行基本上是将干预欧元区成员国债券市场的这一流程正式化了。

    直接货币交易演示不足500字，细节严重不明。不过，它与欧洲央行上两次债券干预计划的区别还是很明显的。首先，根据直接货币交易，寻求资助的成员国必须正式提出申请。其次，它要求成员国必须达到某些财政目标，才可能获得国际货币基金组织（IMF）的帮助。第三，欧洲央行将只购买短期债券或三年内到期债券。第四，如果出现违约，欧洲央行将拥有与普通投资者相同的地位，消除了过去投资者担心的欧洲央行可能优先获偿的问题。最后，该计划将无限期执行，为成员国提供“无限度的”帮助。

    直接货币交易计划宣布后，市场反应积极。高危欧元区成员国的债券利率立即降至可管理水平，市场和欧元都呈现反弹。随后，西班牙3年期债券以3.63%的利率售出，显著低于先前的5.09%。

    那么，这是不是意味着危机已经过去？不可能。如果说欧洲央行的新计划有什么作用的话，也不过是在鲜血喷涌的欧元区伤口再贴了一块创可贴而已。新计划有好的一面，但光凭这一个计划还不管用。最终，这场危机还是需要在政治和财政层面（而不是货币层面）解决。从这个意义上讲，欧洲央行的计划能帮助政客们赢得一些时间，最终劲往一处使，共同解决这个危机。

    但这条路我们已经走过很多次。当欧洲央行干预并稳定债券市场时，政客们似乎变得惰于行动。欧元区领导人需要拿枪顶着，才能真正动起来。直接货币交易并不是在赢得时间，只是在增加货币供应的同时，推迟不可避免之结局最终到来的时间。

    另外，虽然直接货币交易不同于欧洲央行此前的干预，但它的一些方法并不新鲜。事实上，它们几乎就是从欧洲救助基金获取现金所必须满足的条件，基本上就是将希腊经济打入长期衰退的同一方法。很怀疑西班牙和意大利会愿意将账簿交给IMF，然后被告知它们需要实施紧缩措施，同时还要解雇数千政府雇员？西班牙和意大利经济固然需要进行动真格的改革，需要解雇数千政府雇员，但在这两个经济体都如此脆弱不堪之际，强制实施这样的计划只会把它们推入更深层次的衰退，引发下行螺旋，收入下降，然后导致更多的裁员。

    The latest plan to save the euro is just more of the same – delay. While the markets have responded favorably to the European Central Bank's newly polished bond buying program, the enthusiasm is bound to wear off in the coming weeks as it is implemented across the eurozone. And there is a chance that the plan may not even survive by the end of this week, as a German court rules this Wednesday on the constitutionality of that nation's participation in the various eurozone bailout programs. If the court finds that Germany's participation violates national sovereignty, the bailout would lose its biggest donor. That would not only threaten the ECB's latest program, it could also spell the end of the euro all together.

    The eurozone crisis seems to have picked up right where it left off before Europe took to vacation in August. Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, assured the markets at the end of July that the central bank was "prepared to do whatever it takes to preserve the eurozone." It was largely believed that Draghi would soon initiate another bond buying program, where the ECB would buy up eurozone member debts in the secondary market to bring down borrowing costs. The technique was first used to stabilize the Greek markets in 2010 and later used in Spain and Italy. While he didn't go into specifics, the strong statement was enough to calm the markets throughout much of August.

    Last week Draghi showed his cards. As expected, "whatever it takes," was simply another bond buying program. Known as the Outright Monetary Transactions, the ECB essentially formalized the process by which it would intervene in the debt market of a eurozone member.

    At a little under 500-words, the plan's presentation was noticeably light on details. Nevertheless, it was easy to make out some key differences from the ECB's last two bond interventions. First, under the OMT, member states requiring assistance must formally apply for help. Second, it forces member states to meet certain fiscal goals, with possible help from the IMF. Next, the ECB would only be buying short term paper, or bonds that would come due in the next three years. Additionally, it was decided that the ECB would have the same status as regular investors in the event of a default, eliminating past investor concern as to seniority. And lastly, the program would go on indefinitely and it would extend "unlimited" help to member states.

    The markets responded favorably to the plan after it was announced. Bond rates in troubled eurozone countries immediately fell to manageable levels, while the markets and the euro rallied. Spain was later able to sell three-year bonds at 3.63%, down from 5.09%.

    So does this mean the crisis is over? Hardly. If anything, the ECB plan is just yet another Band-Aid applied to a now gushing eurozone wound. While there are some good parts to the plan, it just won't work by itself. Ultimately, this crisis needs to be solved at the political and fiscal level, not the monetary one. The ECB plan can help aid politicians in this regard by essentially buying them time to finally get their act together and solve the crisis.

    But we have been down this road before. When the ECB intervenes and calms the bond markets, politicians seem to get lazy. Eurozone leaders need to be staring down the barrel of a gun that is being cocked back in order to do anything. Instead of buying time, the OMT, will simply be delaying the inevitable while increasing the money supply.

    Furthermore, while the OMT differs from the last ECB intervention, its methods are not new to this crisis. Indeed, they are pretty much the same conditions that are required for obtaining cash from the EU bailout fund. They are basically the same methods crushing the Greek economy into a permanent depression. It is doubtful that Spain and Italy would want to turn over their books to the IMF so they can be told to institute harsh austerity measures and to fire thousands of government workers. While the economies of Spain and Italy are in need of serious reform, and thousands of government workers should be let go, forcing such a plan now while their economies are weak will drive them deeper into depression, setting off a downward spiral where revenues fall, forcing more cuts.