欧洲或许该散伙了

    今夏的欧洲之行让我看清了一些：欧洲对于保住欧元并无太多热情。是的，解体会很痛。但看起来，欧洲南部一些弱国已经觉得自己不再需要“欧洲”了。

    至少在我这个近期到过马耳他、意大利、瑞士和比利时（甚至还有柏林机场）的人眼里，情况看起来就是这样。这些欧洲人以自己身为马耳他人和西西里岛人倍感自豪。为自己是大欧洲的公民而自豪？谈不上。

    欧元的确帮助了欧洲南部这些经济相对落后的国家。以西西里岛为例，当布鲁塞尔规定欧盟国家20%的电力须来自清洁能源，企业家和黑手党都抓住了这个机会。媒体报道将西西里黑手党称作“风能的主人”，黑手党大佬们也从布鲁塞尔发放的逾56亿欧元清洁能源补贴中分得了一杯羹（有些补贴可能在这场金融危机中化为乌有）。得益于这临时性的馈赠，西西里岛成了意大利风能发电最多的地区。不错，有补贴发，总会有领补贴的人。

    但是，我遇到的很多人似乎并没有把这些新的风电场、历史古迹的游客中心以及高速公路看成是可以提供稳定收入的“年金”投资。他们更多地把这看成是碰运气：能赢一次就好，但也就这样了。他们的态度总是：“好了，一切已经结束了。谁在意呢？我要回到自己的生活中去了，谢谢”。在受强风侵袭的希腊小镇安哥拉，一个人说：“我的家就是我的生命——就这么回事。”在巴勒莫，我问：“如果欧元垮了，情况会很糟糕吗？”一位30多岁男子的回答更直接：“没那回事。为什么会很糟糕？”他挑衅地反问，显然在他看来，我问这个问题就是出于偏见。

    与这些南欧人一样，我相信大“欧洲”的最大受益者是德国和法国。没有欧元，它们在全球最大经济体中的排名分列第四和第五。有欧元，它们是第一，欧元区的GDP规模是中国的3倍，比美国也高出几万亿美元。欧元让欧洲最强大的经济体具有了举足轻重的地位——汇成了一股巨大的力量。

    因此，它们需要四面楚歌的南欧国家，包括意大利（世界经济排名：第八）和西班牙（世界经济排名：第十二）。

    如果欧盟解体，南欧将面临太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）分析师托尼•克雷森兹所说的“德拉克马难题”，即以德拉克马、里尔或比萨塔偿还原先由欧元计价的债务将“极其”困难。

    但南欧经济的韧性或许超乎人们的想象。以西西里岛最大的鱼市所在地马扎洛德尔瓦洛为例。西西里岛的渔船数量是意大利最多的。西西里岛最大的出口市场是哪里？不是欧元区兄弟法国或德国，而是日本。就算意大利脱离欧元区，只要西西里岛的金枪鱼是最好的，日本人还是会买。而在本地市场，今天夏天我看到的是渔民们把鱼卖给他们认识的人，双方握握手就达成了交易。他们自豪于这样的本地经济，并不需要德国人参与其中。

    马耳他给我的感觉是更像耶路撒冷或突尼斯（不像柏林）。西西里岛地区呢？更像北非（不像米兰）。如果要保住欧元，就需要建立更紧密的欧盟，这必定会缓慢、但不可避免地抹去这诸多文化差异。但这不是华山一条道。毕竟，12年前这里就存在17种不同的货币。当时也挺好。解体带来的金融冲击必定会伴随着痛苦。但谈到日常生活，我相信欧洲人能应对好，翻过这一篇。

    译者：早稻米

    This summer trips to Europe opened my eyes to something: There's a lack of passion in Europe for keeping the euro. Yes, the pain of a breakup would be severe. But many of the poorer southerners of Europe don't seem to feel that they need "Europe" anymore.

    That, at least, is the way it appeared to me after spending time recently in Malta, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium -- and even the Berlin airport. These Europeans are proud of being Maltese and Sicilian. Proud of being citizens of greater Europe? Not so much.

    Sure, the euro has helped the poorer Southern European nations. Take Sicily: When Brussels mandated that European Union countries get 20% of their power from green sources, entrepreneurs -- and the Mafia -- jumped at the opportunity. Press reports refer to the Sicilian Mafia as "lords of the wind" after bosses took a piece of the more than $5.6 billion worth of green-related subsidies that Brussels doles out (some of those subsidies may fall victim to the financial crisis). As a result of the temporary largesse, Sicily is Italy's top producer of wind power. Hey, where there's a subsidy, there's a taker.

    Still, the people I crossed paths with didn't seem to think their new wind farms, visitor centers at historic sites, and motorways are annuities. They saw them more as a lottery: something nice to win once, but that's about it. The attitude was consistent: "Okay, this is over. Who cares? I'll go back to my life now, thanks." In the windswept hill town of Agira, Greece, one man said, "My family is my life -- that's it." In Palermo, the answer to my question "Would it be bad if the euro died?" from one thirtysomething man was even more direct: "No. Why would it be bad for us?" He asked it in a challenging way, making it clear, politely, that in his view I was biased even to ask the question.

    I believe, as do the southerners, that the biggest beneficiaries of "Europe" as a statelike concept remain Germany and France. Without the euro, they're No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, on the list of the world's biggest economies. With it, they're No. 1 -- triple the size of China and a couple trillion dollars in GDP ahead of the U.S. The euro keeps Europe's most powerful economies relevant -- in league with the juggernauts.

    So they need the much-maligned South -- including Italy (world economy rank: No. 8) and Spain(world economy rank: No. 12).

    If the European Union broke up, the South would suffer from "Drachmageddon": That's how Pimco's Tony Crescenzi describes the "exceedingly" difficult process of paying back debts that used to be in euros in drachmas, liras, or pesetas.

    But Europe's South is more economically resilient than you might think. Take Mazara del Vallo, home to Sicily's biggest fish market. Sicily's fishing fleet is Italy's biggest. The biggest export destination for Sicily? Not Euro-pals France or Germany, but Japan. If Italy left the euro, Japan would still buy Sicilian tuna if Sicilian tuna was the best. And closer to home, fishermen this summer were selling to men they knew, sealing the deal with a handshake. It's an economy that prides itself on being locally driven. They don't need the Germans for that.

    Right now, Malta to me still feels more like Jerusalem or Tunis than Berlin. Parts of Sicily? More like North Africa than Milan. A tighter European Union, which is needed for the euro to survive, would slowly but inevitably erase many of those cultural differences. But there is another way. After all, 12 years ago there were 17 separate currencies. That worked fine. The financial pain of breaking up this European marriage would hurt. But when it comes to daily life, I'm betting that Europe can handle it and move on.