欧元分家要趁早

    罗杰•布托常常自诩为16世纪的大预言家诺查丹马斯，不过也确有几分道理。1999年，这位英国经济学家成功地预测了互联网泡沫的破裂，后来在2003年出版的《金钱无用》（Money for Nothing）一书中又预言，全球范围内的房地产崩盘将对金融系统造成灾难性的打击。现年60岁的布托是位不折不扣的市场论学者，曾在牛津大学（Oxford）任教，担任过汇丰银行（HSBC）的首席经济学家，如今是伦敦咨询公司凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的董事总经理。凯投宏观的伦敦办公室位于白金汉宫附近一座19世纪的维多利亚风格联排住所中，从这里，已经谢顶、戴着眼镜的布托胸有成竹地向从纽约到北京的大银行和对冲基金做出建议。但走出办公室，这位公务员的儿子不太爱冒险。他喜欢在英国著名的Ascot Racecourse赛马场放松心情，押注不过是“5英镑或10英镑，只是为了能够欢呼加油”。

    如今，布托将自己的职业声誉押在了又一项大胆的反主流预测上，一项可能对全球经济和股票市场产生深远影响的预测：他坚信，至少欧元区的部分解体是不可避免的，目前有17个国家共同采用的欧元将迎来巨变。这17个国家的GDP占到了全球总量的八分之一。

    7月份，布托和他的团队荣获了著名的沃尔夫森经济学奖（Wolfson Economics Prize），围绕“如果成员国退出经济与货币联盟（Economic and Monetary Union）, 管理这一经济过程的最佳方式”交出了一份最佳答卷。布托在题为《退出欧元：实用指南》（Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide）的这份114页报告中为成员国退出这一共同货币联盟时应当采取的步骤绘出了蓝图。同时，他还更进一步，抛出了一个有力的观点，相信弱国退出欧元区是解决欧洲经济沉疴的唯一途径。

    布托积极宣扬这些不受欢迎的观点。“欧元就是一个制造衰退的机器，”他告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune）。“政客们不断撒钱，帮助弱国应对债务问题。他们从来不谈恢复增长。欧元解体绝不会成为灾难，这是欧洲重现增长、脱离当前困境的唯一途径。越快越好。”

    决策层继续采取截然不同的方式。欧洲的政治首脑和监管机构几乎无一例外地坚定支持欧元，口口声声是欧元解体将带来经济世界末日（Armageddon）。对欧元区将延续的乐观情绪于9月6日升温，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）行长马里奥•德拉吉宣布了一项收购欧元区弱国主权债务的庞大计划，并宣称“欧元是不可逆转的”。随后，9月12日，德国一家法院批准了该国参与拥有6,450亿美元借贷能力的救助基金——欧洲稳定机制（European Stability Mechanism）。由于前景可能缓和，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）在5个交易日中涨了2.4% 。

    但这些持续的救助只是换取了一些时间。即便是最害怕欧元解体的经济学家们也承认，解体可能最终不可避免，除非德国和其他状况好的国家向弱国提供远比现在多得多的帮助。“欧洲需要创建由欧元区所有成员国共同参与的联邦式债务分担机制。”希腊经济学家亚尼斯•瓦鲁法克斯称。“如果不这样，欧元区可能就会散伙了。”

    言下之意是赌布托预测对了，也就是说欧元区将在未来几年内瓦解。结果将是随即而来的极度震荡，退出国遭遇重重困境——大批企业破产、巨额的主权债务违约，全球股市一时陷入恐慌。但如果弱国继续留在欧元区，这样的痛苦终究也会到来，欧元解体只不过是把这些痛苦浓缩进了一次重击。然而，长痛不如短痛。正如布托所说，欧洲必须选择增长，相信欧元解体后经济增长将以出人意料的速度早日重现。让我们参照他的报告，看看成功的解体将如何展开。

    Roger Bootle prides himself on being something of a modern-day Nostradamus -- with good reason. In 1999 the British economist predicted a bursting of the dotcom bubble, and in his 2003 book, Money for Nothing, he forecast a worldwide crash in housing that would prove dire for the financial system. A rigorous student of markets, Bootle, 60, is a onetime Oxford don and chief economist for HSBC (HBC) who now runs Capital Economics, a London consulting firm. Operating out of a 19th-century Victorian townhouse near Buckingham Palace, the bald, bespectacled son of a civil servant confidently advises major banks and hedge funds from New York to Beijing. But away from the office he isn't much of a risk-taker. Bootle likes to unwind at England's famous Ascot Racecourse, where he wagers no more than "five or 10 quid just so I have a horse to cheer home."

    Today Bootle is betting his professional reputation on another bold contrarian call, one with long-term ramifications for the world economy and global stock markets: He strongly believes that at least a partial breakup of the eurozone is inevitable and that massive changes are coming for the euro, the currency now shared by 17 nations accounting for one-eighth of world GDP.

    In July, Bootle and his team won the prestigious Wolfson Economics Prize for providing the best answer to the following question: "If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union, what is the best way for the economic process to be managed?" In a 114-page report, "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide," Bootle delivered a blueprint for the steps a nation should take in exiting the common currency. He also went further, summoning a powerful argument for why an exodus of weak countries is the only solution for Europe's deep malaise.

    Bootle is not shy about championing his highly unpopular view. "The euro is a depression-making machine," he tells Fortune. "The politicians keep throwing money to support the weaker nations' debt problem. They never talk about restoring growth. Far from a disaster, a breakup of the euro is the only way to bring back growth and get Europe out of this mess. It can't happen soon enough."

    Policymakers continue to take a diametrically opposite approach. Almost without exception, Europe's political leaders and regulators strongly back the euro's survival and generally claim that a breakup would bring economic Armageddon. Optimism that the eurozone will hold rose on Sept. 6, when Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, announced a giant program for purchasing the sovereign debt of weak eurozone nations. Draghi further stated that "the euro is irreversible." Then, on Sept. 12, a German court approved the country's participation in the European Stability Mechanism, a rescue fund with a lending capacity of $645 billion. Over five trading sessions, the S&P 500 jumped 2.4% in a potent relief rally.

    But the continued bailouts are just buying time. Even economists who dread a euro breakup admit that it will probably happen eventually unless Germany and other healthy nations provide far greater support to their weak neighbors. "Europe needs to create federal-style debt shared by all the eurozone members," says Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis. "If that doesn't happen, the eurozone will probably dissolve."

    The bet here is that Bootle is right and that the euro will fracture in the next few years. The result will be extremely messy in the immediate aftermath, bringing severe hardship to the exiting countries -- a rash of bankruptcies, giant defaults on sovereign debt, and temporary panic in world stock markets. But the pain that a breakup compresses into a one-time shock will happen anyway if weak nations remain in the euro. It will simply stretch over a number of years and turn out far worse. As Bootle argues, Europe must choose growth, and a split in the euro will bring it back with surprising speed. Let's use his report as a guide for how a successful breakup could play out.