雅芳缘何不再是买家眼里的香饽饽

    今年四月，雅芳（Avon）曾是炙手可热的收购对象。

    当时，德国Joh. A. Benckiser股份有限公司主要持有的香水集团科蒂（Coty）曾经主动开价100亿美元，希望收购这家化妆品公司。《财富》杂志（Fortune）还报道，Richmont Holdings投资公司也加入了收购该公司的行列。【请参见新闻《雅芳：一个美容帝国的兴衰》。（Avon: The rise and fall of a beauty icon）】当时，《财富》杂志曾经撰文分析了雅芳为何一开始就成为抢手的收购对象：长期担任雅芳首席执行官的钟彬娴管理不善、决策失误，同时，核心客户也在逐渐流失。雅芳的股价在钟彬娴的任期内曾于2004年最高达到46美元，而在科蒂出价收购前，股价已经跌至19美元左右。

    如今，大约七个月过去了，雅芳的股价依旧一路下跌，如今徘徊在14美元上下。11月1日公司发表的财报显示，今年第三季度的利润同比下降了81%。

    除去财报惨淡之外，公司与所有新买家的洽谈也至少暂时搁浅。表面上看，雅芳可能甚至会接到一些不受欢迎的报价，不过此时进行私人股本交易的可能性不大。

    雅芳的情况发生了很大的改变，其中最大的变化是钟彬娴不再负责管理公司。一年前，公司发布财务和运营审查时，她依然担任首席执行官。在她的管理之下，雅芳经历了两次失败的高层改组。分析人士曾猜测，在公众视线之外进行一次彻底洗牌，也许能让公司的运营更加顺利。

    不过分析师们现在表示，公众的关注无碍四月新上任的执行官谢莉·麦科伊做出艰难的决策。

    晨星公司（Morning Star）的分析师艾林·拉什说：“他们给人的感觉像是所有的选择都已经摆在了桌面上，其中甚至包括退出一部分市场，进行新一轮裁员，或者削减股息。”

    麦科伊在公司最近的收益电话会议上承认，公司还有很长的路要走。她告诉分析师：“我理解，你们想知道我带来了什么灵丹妙药，或者说有什么快速解决问题的方案，不过我们的业务很复杂。”她还说：“雅芳面临的挑战不是一夜之间出现的，而是日积月累形成的，所以我们也需要一些时间来解决它们。”

    Back in April, Avon was a hot target.

    Fragrance maker Coty, majority-owned by German holding company Joh. A. Benckiser GmbH, made an unsolicited $10 billion offer for the direct seller of beauty products. Fortune also reported that Richmont Holdings was putting together a bid for the company. (See Avon: The rise and fall of a beauty icon)

    At the time, Fortune detailed what had made Avon so vulnerable in the first place: plagued by mismanagement and poor execution during the tenure of longtime CEO Andrea Jung, the company had lost sight of its core customer. The stock hit $46 in 2004, a high for Jung's reign, but had dropped to around $19 just prior to the Coty bid.

    Seven or so months later, the stock's slide has continued, with the share price hovering around $14. Profits in the third quarter, reported Nov. 1, declined 81% over the same period in 2011.

    Despite the deteriorating numbers, talk of any new buyers -- at least for the time being -- has cooled. Avon might look even more exposed to an unwanted bid on the surface, but a private equity deal seems unlikely at this point.

    A lot has changed at Avon, but the biggest change is that Jung is no longer in charge. A year ago, when the company announced its latest financial and operational review, Jung was still CEO. Avon had already undergone two unsuccessful restructurings during her time as at the top, and analysts posited whether a turnaround would be easier to execute beyond the public eye.

    But analysts say that the spotlight hasn't stopped current chief executive Sheri McCoy, who took over in April, from making hard decisions.

    "The impression they convey is all options are on the table," says Morningstar analyst Erin Lash, "even if that means exiting some markets, going through another round of head count reductions, or whether that means slashing dividend."

    On the company's most recent earnings call, McCoy acknowledged that the company had a long road ahead, telling analysts, "I recognize you would like to hear me present a magic bullet or a quick fix, but our business is complex," and that "the challenges Avon is facing developed over time, not overnight, and the solutions will take time as well."