“金砖先生”继续看好中国股市

    如果问问投资者2013年担心些什么，大多数人的回答必然会包括中国。吉姆•奥尼尔是个例外，而且可以毫不夸张地说，他已经将自己的职业前途押在了中国的经济成功上。早在2001年，我们大多数人仍然震惊于网络泡沫的破裂时，奥尼尔却用巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国这四个国家的英文首字母炮制出了“BRIC（金砖四国）”一词，并宣称这四个新兴经济体，特别是中国，未来十年将推动市场发展。后来虽然爆发了金融危机，但他的预言大致是正确的。现在，有些人开始担心中国这个世界第二大经济体可能崩溃。现年55岁、掌管超过8000亿美元资产的高盛资产管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事长奥尼尔依然乐观。他预测中国经济从制造向消费的转型有望实现软着陆。他相信，2013年中国股市将和日本、欧洲那些此前表现低迷的股市一起领先于全球股市。下面是经过编辑的采访节选：

    最近，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略师鲁吉•夏尔马等人纷纷唱衰金砖四国，认为投资者们不应指望这些国家。

    事实上这取决于人们原来的预期是什么。我不知道有多少正常人真的会预测中国经济增速将保持10%。

    他不光是说中国没有实现预计的10%增速。他说的是中国的经济增速将来可能连5%都达不到。

    2010年和2011年中国经济增速出现下降是因为政策制定者们非常担心通胀，通胀曾在很短的一段时间内大大高于目标水平。当然通胀的上涨与中国城镇房价的急速上涨也不无关系。因此，他们特意放缓了增速。但是，要说中国经济增速将降至5%或以下，那就拿出依据来，我是想象不出。

    中国大量农村人口已经进城，总体人口结构趋于老龄化。因此，人口结构将不再是中国的优势因素。

    首先，中国的城市化进程可能还只是进行了一半。第二，现在人们突然开始说：“哦，中国遇到了人口结构挑战。”我的感觉是，“过去十年你们都睡着了吗?”对于那些长期以来关注中国的人们来说，这些都不是什么新鲜事，特别是对于中国的决策机构而言。他们已经开始重视经济增长的质量，注重提高生产率，而不只是依赖庞大的农村人口进城。我认为印度和巴西有些东西值得担忧，但就中国而言，我要说的就是，它的表现好于我的预期。

    Ask most investors for their list of concerns for 2013, and China is on it. Jim O'Neill is an exception -- and it's not much of an exaggeration to say he has staked his career on that country's success. Back in 2001, when most of us were still dazed by the dotcom bust, O'Neill created the acronym BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He proclaimed that those emerging economies, China's in particular, would drive markets for the next decade. The financial crisis notwithstanding, he has been broadly correct. Now some fear a bust in the world's second-largest economy. O'Neill, the 55-year-old chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GS), which oversees more than $800 billion, remains optimistic. He predicts a transition from manufacturing to consumption that will create a rare soft landing. And he thinks that Chinese stocks, along with battered markets in Japan and Europe, will lead the pack in 2013. Edited excerpts:

    Lately people such as Morgan Stanley strategist Ruchir Sharma have been critical of the BRICs, arguing that investors shouldn't count on them.

    It really depends on what people expected. How anyone in their right mind could seriously have expected China to continue to grow at 10% I'm not really sure.

    His claim is not just that China hasn't lived up to its expected 10%. He's saying China isn't even going to grow 5%.

    China slowed in 2010 and 2011 because policymakers were very worried about inflation, which was way above target for a brief period and of course linked to a very dramatic rise in urban house prices. And they deliberately slowed it. To argue that China is in the process of slowing to 5% or less -- anyone is entitled to a view, but I don't see what premise it's based on.

    Well, the Chinese have moved to cities, and they're aging. So the demographic wind won't be at China's back anymore.

    First of all, they're probably only about halfway through urbanization. Second, the fact that people are suddenly saying, "Oh, China's got a demographic challenge." I'm like, "Where have you all been sleeping for the past decade?" It's been known by those who follow it closely and, most importantly, by Chinese policymakers. That's why they've been focusing on better quality of growth and boosting their productivity rather than rely on sheer numbers of people urbanizing. I see things to worry about in India and Brazil, but if anything, China is doing better than I expected.