创始人导演戴尔公司的私有化大戏？

    私募股权投资公司银湖资本（Silver Lake Partners）在以250多亿美元的价格对戴尔公司（Dell Inc.）实施私有化收购之后，未来会如何出售戴尔公司呢？

    是的，这个想法可能有点超前。因为目前银湖还没有提出正式收购要约，更不用说戴尔公司或其股东是否会接受其收购要约。而我对此仍持怀疑态度。但是，在还没有设计出一个可行的退出计划之前，私募股权投资公司不会进入到交易谈判进程中如此深度的阶段，即便其交易细节通常会随着时间的推移而有所改变。

    通常情况下，私募股权投资公司会通过未来出售所收购的公司或者让该公司上市来收回他们的投资。然而，戴尔公司未来很难以溢价出售（当然，如果戴尔公司倒闭的话，那么这种估算总体上也就无关紧要了）。不仅是由于此项收购交易的规模，而且也是因为可能出现的战略收购者为数很少。它或许是联想（Lenovo）。或许是甲骨文（Oracle）。也或许是思科（Cisco）。又或者，或许IBM现在后悔当初卖出旗下个人电脑业务。值得一提的是，据传言，上述公司没有一家准备提出与银湖相竞争的收购要约。

    银湖对戴尔公司实施私有化收购之后，未来也可能会把自己持有的戴尔股票出售给另一家私募股权投资公司，从而让戴尔公司保持独立及非上市状态——虽然这种控股变更通常会引发债务重组（值得一提的是，对于戴尔公司现有的大部分债务而言，这样的触发因素似乎并不存在）。

    未来更有可能发生的情况是，银湖对戴尔公司进行首次公开募股（IPO）上市，因为私募股权投资公司在进行150亿美元以上规模的私有化收购交易之后，几乎都会采取这种退出方式【值得注意的一个例外是移动运营公司Alltel，该公司最后出售给了威瑞森通信公司（Verizon）】。但是，问题是，这整个私有化收购交易背后的驱动因素是迈克尔•戴尔对运营一家上市公司的厌恶情绪。

    请记住，是戴尔主动联系私募股权投资公司，而不是私募股权投资公司主动联系戴尔。迈克尔•戴尔不仅会继续持有其现有的16％股份，而且很可能还会从其个人财富中拿出大量资金来增持股份。换句话说，此项收购交易不会是为了让公司创始人抛股套现。相反，这位创始人将加倍增持股份，并且希望保住自己对公司的控制权。银湖究竟会如何说服他在2017年或2018年重新启动IPO路演呢？难道银湖真的指望戴尔在远离银行分析师之后（也就是私有化之后）就会增强上市的信心吗？

    那么，如果在私有化之后戴尔和公司在未来既不出售也不上市的话，还有哪些退出方式呢？对此，一位匿名者通过电子邮件提出了下面这个建议：

    “实施私有化的5至7年之后，等到戴尔公司偿付了因私有化收购而背负的大部分债务之后，迈克尔•戴尔可以从参与私营化收购的私募股权投资公司那里买回公司股份。届时，迈克尔•戴尔可以对公司进行资本重组，并且利用所得资金来偿还银湖的投资——让银湖获得超过一倍的投资收益。”

    这个推测很有吸引力，因为各方都能够得到各自所想要的东西。银湖得到了一个有盈利的退出途径，贷款人得到了贷款偿付，而迈克尔•戴尔则可以继续运营戴尔公司，只是届时戴尔公司已成为一家独立的非上市实体。

    显然，这种假设情形取决于戴尔公司是否能够成功地把其核心焦点从硬件业务转移到服务业务，以及各种其他商业因素。此外，戴尔公司不能通过大规模收购来达到上述目标—— 因为最近采取的收购策略正是戴尔公司大量经营现金流持续遭到吞噬的原因（从而限制了该公司偿还债务的能力）。

    但是，银湖显然有兴趣押注于这个有利的前景（即戴尔公司能够成功地把核心业务转移到服务领域），这意味着银湖可能会使迈克尔•戴尔能够重新获得最初在25年前将戴尔公司推上市之后失去的自主权。难怪他一直如此渴望找到一家私募股权投资公司作为自己此项“宏伟计划”的合作伙伴。（财富中文网）

    译者: iDo98

    How would Silver Lake Partners sell Dell Inc. after taking it private for upwards of $25 billion?

    Yes, this is getting ahead of ourselves a bit. Silver Lake hasn't even made a formal offer yet, let alone one that Dell (DELL) or its shareholders have accepted. And I remain skeptical. But private equity firms don't get this far into deal talks without having mapped out a viable exit plan, even if the specifics usually change over time.

    Typically, private equity firms exit their investments either by selling the company or taking it public. Dell, however, would be a very difficult company to sell at a premium (if it were to collapse, of course, then this exercise is largely irrelevant). Not only because of its size, but also because the universe of possible strategic acquirers could probably fit on a chip. Maybe Lenovo (LNVGY). Maybe Oracle (ORCL). Maybe Cisco (CSCO). Or maybe IBM (IBM) is having PC seller's remorse. Worth noting that none of these companies are rumored to be prepping a rival bid to Silver Lake.

    It's also possible that Silver Lake could simply sell its equity position to another private equity firm-- thus keeping Dell private and independent -- although such changes in control typically trigger debt restructuring (worth noting that such triggers don't seem to exist on most of Dell's existing debt).

    A more likely scenario would an IPO, since that is what ultimately happens to almost all $15 billion+ companies that get acquired by private equity (a notable exception being Alltel, which was sold to Verizon). The problem here, however, is that this entire deal is being driven by Michael Dell's abhorrence of running a publicly-traded company.

    Remember, it was Dell that reached out to private equity firms -- not the other way around. And Michael Dell not only would be expected to roll over his existing 16% stake, but chances are he'd also invest significantly more capital from his personal fortune. In other words, this buyout wouldn't be about founder liquidity. Instead, the founder would be doubling down and expecting to retain control. How exactly would Silver Lake convince him to go back out on an IPO road show in 2017 or 2018? Is it really betting that time away from bank analysts makes the heart grow fonder?

    So if not a sale and not an IPO, what's left? Well, an anonymous emailer suggests the following:

    "Michael Dell could take out the PE sponsor in 5-7 years, once the company has paid down a good portion of the acquisition debt. At that point, Michael Dell would recap the company and use the proceeds to repay Silver Lake at more than two times its original investment."

    This is an appealing theory, because everyone gets what they want. Silver Lake has a profitable exit path, lenders get paid and Michael Dell gets to keep running his company as a private, independent entity.

    Obviously such a scenario is dependent on Dell successfully transitioning its core focus from hardware to services, and a variety of other business factors. Moreover, it must do so without relying on large acquisitions -- since that recent strategy is the reason Dell's massive operating cash flows keep getting gobbled up (thus hampering its ability to service and repay debt).

    But Silver Lake is clearly has interest in betting on that upside, which means it might enable Michael Dell to regain the autonomy he first lost upon taking his company public 25 years ago. No wonder he's been so eager to find a private equity partner.