慈善赌局十年之约，巴菲特第一次反超

    一场十年股市赌局如今已经时间过半。在这场“百万美元赌局”中，沃伦•巴菲特看好标普指数基金的表现，而一家纽约投资管理公司Protégé Partners则看好5只对冲基金母基金。现在，有两个消息。

    消息一：自从5年前约下这场十年之赌，巴菲特终于取得领先地位，而且领先幅度尚可。消息二：这也是五年来双方首次扭亏为盈(母基金勉强持平)。

    谈到几年来糟糕的表现，不得不提的是，这场赌局始于惨淡的2008年，让双方都亏了很多钱。但巴菲特无疑亏得更多：巴菲特支持的标普指数基金、先锋集团（Vanguard）的Admiral基金 2008年跌幅37%，大于Protégé 公司5只母基金24%的平均跌幅。

    《财富》杂志（Fortune）对这场赌局第一年形势的报道曾援引过巴菲特的话，他希望自己能像龟兔赛跑故事里的那只乌龟，最终能超过兔子。

    如今，这只乌龟经过四年的缓慢爬行，终于取得了领先地位。进入赌局的第五年，巴菲特支持的先锋指数基金累计上涨8.69%。Protégé为这场赌局选择的五只母基金也转跌为升，平均涨幅0.13%，用Protégé合伙人泰德•塞德斯的话说，终于“长喘了口气”。

    按赌局约定，这五只基金的名称从未透露。但外界一直认为，其中有一只基金是Protégé自己管理的一只母基金。

    2012年股市表现强劲，对于双方扭亏为盈自然功不可没。指数基金的表现便极好地体现了股市的强劲，去年指数基金上涨15.96%。相比之下，五只母基金2012年平均仅实现涨幅6.46%。

    从Protégé当前暂时落后的表现，或许已听到过太多乌龟说法的塞德斯对于这场赌局设想的是另一种结果，就像电影《城市乡巴佬》（City Slickers）里一样。塞德斯称，这部电影里“比利•克里斯托饰演的角色问杰克•帕伦斯饰演的角色，今天他有没有杀人？后者的回答是，‘今天还没到头呢’。”

    我们会保留这个悬念，继续跟进报道这场十年赌局。此处要谈的是双方从赌局之初就购入和提交的抵押品10年期零息美国国债。当时双方各自拿出了约32万美元，因此债券总金额约为64万美元。原本的设计是，到2017年12月31日赌局终结时，抵押品总价值将逐步增至100万美元——“百万赌局”的说法即由此而来。

    It's halfway time in the 10-year stock market wager sometimes called The Million-Dollar Bet—that's Warren Buffett backing the performance of an S&P index fund vs. a New York money manager backing five funds of hedge funds—and there's double-barreled news.

    Item One: For the first time since the bet started five years ago, Buffett has moved ahead—by an okay margin to boot. Item Two: For the first time ever as well, both sides have crawled out of the ditch (though the funds of funds barely made it) and are showing positive results.

    About that history of bad results, of course, you need to keep in mind that this bet started in the gut-wrenching year of 2008, which left both contenders deep in the red. Buffett, though, was definitely a deeper shade of red: Vanguard's Admiral shares—the S&P index fund he'd backed—lost 37% in 2008 vs. a 24% drop, on the average, for Protégé's five funds of funds.

    Reporting on that first year of the bet, Fortune quoted Buffett as just hoping he could be like the fabled tortoise that ultimately passes the hare.

    So now the tortoise, after crawling four more years, indeed leads. At the five-year mark, the Vanguard index fund backed by Buffett is up by 8.69%. The five funds of funds picked by Protégé Partners to carry its flag in the race are up, on the average, only—"gulp," says Protégé partner Ted Seides—0.13%.

    By the terms of the bet, the identity of those five funds has never been made public. It has always been assumed, however, that one of them is a fund of funds run by Protégé itself.

    The strength of 2012's stock market is naturally what carried the contestants into the black. The market's vigor is displayed in the performance of the index fund, which rose by 15.96% last year. In contrast, the five funds of funds managed a 2012 gain, on the average, of only 6.46%.

    From his trailing position, and probably having heard enough about the tortoise, Protégé's Seides imagines an alternative future for the bet by recalling the movie, City Slickers. In it, says Seides, "Billy Crystal's character asks Jack Palance's character, Curly, if he has killed anyone today—and Curly answers, 'Day ain't over yet.'"

    We'll let that suspense hang and report still one more piece of news about this bet. This bulletin concerns the 10-year zero-coupon bond that the two bettors, Buffett and Protégé, bought with the collateral they put up as the bet began. Each contributed about $320,000, so a total of roughly $640,000 went into the bond. Its value was set to rise gradually to $1 million—thus the nickname for the bet—by its conclusion on December 31, 2017.