英国退出欧盟对伦敦金融城意味着什么？

    如果英国公投决定退出欧盟，伦敦金融城可能会猛然觉醒。上周，银行家和政治家们纷纷表态淡化英国退出欧盟的潜在负面影响，但事实上这仍然存在许多潜在的破坏性后果，可能确实会威胁到伦敦金融城作为欧洲金融中心的地位。现在英国政府和伦敦金融城的金融公司必须做好功课，准备应对英国可能退出欧盟的局面。不然的话，华尔街以及欧洲大陆和亚洲其他新兴金融中心可能会成功攫取伦敦金融城的部分光环。

    上周，英国首相戴维•卡梅伦就英国在欧洲的未来发表讲话。卡梅伦称，未来某个时候英国人民将公投表决是否继续留在欧盟。他的这个表态是对党内保守普通议员的一种妥协。他所在党派的许多成员觉得欧盟的法规和限制性规定变得难以接受。卡梅伦称，如果欧盟实施一些改革，让英国免于向布鲁塞尔和法兰克福进一步移交主权，在公投时他个人会号召民众支持英国留在欧盟。

    在他的讲话以及随后的评论中，卡梅伦及其政府一直回避直接讨论英国退出欧盟可能会对伦敦金融城产生的影响。英国的庞大金融业主要集中在伦敦金融城。在这方面，采取这种立场的不仅仅是英国政府。的确，人们会发现，很难找到深度评论英国退出欧盟对伦敦金融城潜在影响的新研究报告。在金融城从业的银行家和基金经理们对这个问题也没有考虑太多。他们指出，伦敦一直是国际金融中心，如果真的出现公投，那也是四年以后的事了，现在就去猜测英国退出欧盟的潜在影响未免为时过早。

    但要说英国退出欧盟对伦敦金融城没有直接或间接的影响，这就很难让人相信了。毕竟，英国金融行业规模庞大，占全国GDP的10%，占全国税收收入的11%。尽管人们可能更倾向于考虑英国继续留在欧盟的可能并将注意力聚焦于今天的问题，但是，英国退出欧盟是一种真真切切的可能性。

    的确，大多数英国人并不热衷于留在欧盟。2011年底，英国调查组织Yougov针对英国人所做的一项调查发现，在有关英国直接的去留问题上，50%的受访者表示，他们会投票支持脱离欧盟，而只有25%的人表示他们将投票支持留在欧盟。因此，最终的公投结果现在还不能妄下结论。除非到时候英国人的态度发生重大转变，否则到2017年，英国或许真的会退出欧盟。

    果真如此，相关人士现在就应该开展工作，研究英国如何快速地脱离欧盟，同时又能把伦敦金融城的许多欧洲业务尽量保留下来。成千上万的法律以及数十项条约将需要重新制定或商定。这一过程可能会耗时数年，如果没有做好的话，可能会因此付出数百亿欧元的代价。

    The City of London could be in for a rude awakening if the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union. While bankers and politicians have spent the week downplaying any possible negative externalities associated with "Brexit," the name given to the UK's potential withdrawal from the EU, there still exist a number of potentially damaging consequences, which could indeed threaten the City's position as Europe's financial hub. Work must be undertaken now by the British government, as well as by firms in the City, to prepare for a possible Brexit. If not, Wall Street, as well as other budding financial centers on the continent and in Asia, could successfully steal some of London's financial glamour.

    Last week, UK Prime Minister David Cameron gave his speech on Britain's future in Europe. Bending to conservative backbenchers in his party, Cameron announced that the British people would sometime in the future vote on whether or not to remain in the EU. The rules and restrictions of the common economic zone were getting too much for many in his party to bear. Cameron said that he would personally campaign for the UK to remain in the EU at the time of the referendum if the EU were to undertake a number of reforms – much of which involve the UK receiving a pass on a number political changes that would see more national sovereignty transferred to Brussels and Frankfurt.

    But throughout his speech and in the comments that followed, Cameron and his administration avoided speaking directly about the consequences that Brexit could have on the nation's golden goose -- the City of London, its massive financial industry. The UK government wasn't alone here; indeed, one would be hard pressed to find any new studies commenting in any real depth on Brexit's potential impact on the City of London. Bankers and fund managers who work in the City didn't give Brexit much thought, either, noting that London has always been a pivotal place for international finance and that any referendum, if it were to happen at all, was to take place in four-year's time, far too long of a time horizon to speculate on Brexit's potential impacts.

    But it is hard to believe that the City won't be either directly or at least indirectly impacted by a UK withdrawal from the EU. After all, the financial services industry is massive, accounting for 10% of the nation's GDP and 11% of its tax receipts. While it might be easy to look the other way and focus on today's problems, the fact is that Brexit is a real possibility.

    Indeed, most Britons aren't fans of the EU. A Yougov poll of British subjects conducted at the end of 2011 found that in a straight in-or-out referendum, 50% of people surveyed would vote to leave the EU with just 25% saying they would stay in. So this vote shouldn't be taken for granted. Unless there is a major shift in sentiment then the UK will be indeed withdrawing from the EU in 2017.

    If that's the case then work needs to be done now to figure out how the UK could quickly and easily extricate itself from the EU's tangled web while retaining as much of the City's European business as possible. Thousands of laws and dozens of treaties would need to be reworked or renegotiated, a process that could potentially take years and cost tens of billions of euros if not done right.