塞浦路斯：最坏的时候还没有到来

    塞浦路斯的银行业危机还远未解决，很有可能在不久的将来演变成一场更为严重的主权债务危机，进而对全球的投资者构成威胁。上周末磋商推出的修订版救助协议仍然将使这个以银行业为中心的岛国经济体面临崩溃，从而制约该国政府未来的债务清偿能力。

    要避免再次出现希腊式的经济崩盘，欧元区官员们其实应明智地构建一份更为务实的救助方案——至少不应该是一个破坏塞浦路斯经济的方案。无法保证这一点就等于宣告塞浦路斯将面临连年苦难，同时还会推动欧元区向着痛苦的分崩离析更近一步。

    有关塞浦路斯救助方案协议达成的消息一经传出，各大市场立刻松了一口气。欧洲和美国股市周一开盘迅速走高，但随后投资者们开始真正明白协议的意义所在，市场旋即回吐了涨幅。考虑到这份协议对塞浦路斯意味着的残酷性，市场的表现就不足为奇了。

    根据这份仓促达成的救助方案，塞浦路斯仍然需拿出58亿欧元才具备资格获得100亿欧元的紧急贷款——承蒙欧盟（European Union）与国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）开恩。这个计划现在只要求对银行账户中存款额超过国家存款保险限额，即10万欧元的账户征税，而不是（如上周提议的那样可怕）通过向所有存款帐户征税的方式来筹集资金。同时，该计划也要求关闭大众银行（Popular Bank，即希腊语所称Laiki），并将该行大额存款账户资金转入一家所谓的“不良资产银行”，这些存款资产很可能最终化为乌有。大众银行是塞浦路斯最大的银行之一。

    尽管值得欣慰的是，大众银行存款额低于10万欧元的存款帐户将受到保护，但这份协议对塞浦路斯来说仍然相当可怕。由于金融业占该国GDP的比例高达45%，雇佣了该国70%的劳动力。塞浦路斯政府（在欧盟以及国际货币基金组织的施压下）从银行存款人身上攫取资金的做法无异于摧毁银行业赖以生存的诚信基石。如果你的账户存款超过10万欧元，你会存在一家塞浦路斯银行里吗？如果只有5欧元呢？两种账户恐怕都不会。

    难以置信的是，塞浦路斯政府居然接受了这个会对该国支柱产业信誉造成损害的 所谓“救助方案”。银行业不是稀缺资源，在类似的存款利息等条件下，客户可以将存款转移至其他地区的某家银行避税。塞浦路斯之所以成为银行业中心，就是因为它是一个能确保大笔资金安然存放又毫不声张的地方。现在政府接受了救助方案，等于是对客户承认，就算只有一分钱，存在这里也不安全。

    关于俄罗斯人存放在塞浦路斯银行系统中的资金数量，以及它是俄罗斯寡头们的洗钱中心等说法已议论得够多了。也许这在一定程度上都是事实。但仍然还有许多合法资金存放在塞浦路斯的各家银行里，即便是来自俄罗斯的资金，其中也有合法的。据穆迪（Moody’s）估计，俄罗斯人总计还有240亿欧元的资金存放在塞浦路斯各行，超过了该国银行存款总额（约690亿美元）的三分之一。

    The banking crisis in Cyprus is far from resolved and will almost certainly morph into a far more serious sovereign debt crisis in the near future, threatening investors around the globe. The revised bailout agreement hatched over the weekend will still leave the island nation's banking-centric economy in ruin, thus limiting the government's ability to meet its future debt payments.

    In order to avoid another Greek-style economic meltdown, Eurozone officials would be wise to construct a more practical bailout—one that at the very least avoids nuking the Cypriot economy. Failure to do so will not only condemn Cyprus to years of misery, but it would also put the Eurozone one step closer to a painful breakup.

    The markets breathed a sigh of relief on the news that a deal had been struck regarding the Cypriot bailout. European and US markets initially popped in Monday trading, but quickly gave up their gains as investors started to get their heads around the agreement. That is not surprising given how atrocious this deal is for Cyprus.

    The hastily put together bailout still forces the nation to come up with 5.8 billion euros to qualify for a badly needed 10 billion euro loan, which will come courtesy of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. But instead of raising the money by "taxing" bank accounts of all sizes (as what was terribly proposed last week), the plan now calls for taxing only those accounts that exceed the nation's deposit insurance limit of 100,000 euros. It also calls for the wind down of Popular Bank (Laiki, in Greek), one of the nation's largest banks, shoving all the big depositors' cash into a so-called "bad bank" where depositors could possibly lose everything.

    While it is good to see that the depositors with less than 100,000 euros in the bank will be protected, the deal is still pretty terrible for Cyprus. That's because the financial sector accounts for 45% of the nation's GDP and employs 70% of its workers. By basically stealing money from bank depositors, the government (under pressure from the EU, IMF and the European Central Bank), is basically destroying the credibility of an industry where credibility is a necessary condition to be successful. Would you trust your money in a Cypriot bank if you had over 100,000 euros in your account? Would you trust it if you had five euros? Probably not on both accounts.

    It is unbelievable that the Cypriot government would agree to any "bailout" that would hurt the credibility of its main industry. Banking is not some scarce natural resource; depositors can move their money to another bank in another tax haven at anytime with similar perks. Cyprus became a banking hub because it set itself up as a place to park large amounts of cash quietly and safely. Now it is basically saying to its clients that it isn't safe to deposit one cent.

    Much has been talked about the amount of Russian money in the Cypriot banking system and how the island is a money laundering hub for its oligarchs. That may be true to some extent, but there is still plenty of legitimate money, yes, even legitimate Russian money, in Cypriot banks. In total, Russians have an estimated 24 billion euros stashed in Cypriot banks, which is more than a third of the nation's total bank deposits of around 69 billion euros, according to Moody's.