安倍晋三新政出台，日本经济重振有望

    日本一直在尽量维持自己的全球第三大经济体地位。15年来，日本的物价水平不断下滑，让它成为大萧条以来唯一的一个长期处于通缩状态的主要经济体。多年来，日本政府一直在设法让本国经济回到曾经的发展轨道上，但这样的努力一再让投资者和公众失望。

    这次，日本的情况有所不同，原因是有了“安倍经济学（Abenomics）”，也就是日本新首相安倍晋三所采取的政策。上周，日本央行推出了一项大胆的方案，每个月将购买7,500亿美元（4.6425万亿元人民币）的债券。日本央行希望此举能降低利率，进而促进个人和企业更多地贷款和消费。这样做的另一个目的是降低日元汇率，以便陷入困境的日本公司能以较低的价格向其他地区出口产品和服务。

    当然，这样做也面临着一些重大的风险：日本政府现在的负债水平就已经极高。如果这项政策未能奏效，日本将进一步陷入债务困境。另一个风险因素是，它可能在全球范围内引发资产泡沫。和日本已经较低的工资水平相比，如果物价上涨过快，民众的生活质量就会普遍下降。

    此前日本曾数次放宽货币政策，但这次的措施史无前例，原因有三：

投资者相信局势将出现反转

    日本曾经多次试图调整经济，但相关举措一直未能收到实效。银行曾通过购买政府债券来压低利率，但批评人士指出，这些措施过于畏首畏尾，而且让人困惑，在其鼓舞之下提高借贷和支出水平的个人和企业并不多。

    这次，日本政府的计划更为清晰——它说明了政府将怎样提高通胀率以及将在什么时候让通胀率达到2%。今后两年，日本央行将使国内货币供应量增加一倍，途径是购买债券和交易所交易基金（ETF）等较不寻常的证券。此外，日本央行还取消了购买长期证券的限制，意在向投资者表明它着眼于长期发展。

    美利坚大学（American University）教授、布鲁克林研究所（Brookings Institution）高级研究员米雷娅•索利斯指出：“日本新一届政府正在改变人们的预期。”所利斯是日本对外经济政策专家，她认为这一点是和以往的根本区别。

    日本政府的目标确实很高。就连安倍也承认，在最终期限之前，也就是两年时间内让通胀率达到2%的目标很困难。不过，日本政府的透明度让投资者知道今后会出现怎样的情况，这有助于他们就借贷的时机和规模制定计划。

他们不光是砸钱来解决问题

    安倍重振日本经济的计划并不只是购买债券。许多人都说日本经济受到了过多的监管，大量法规限制了企业的经营活动，导致日本无法改善自身状况。

    了解到这一点后，安倍开始实施结构性改革，其中就包括放松管制，也就是旨在推动经济复苏的“安倍经济学”中所谓的“第三条”。虽然还在商讨之中，但中心议题已经集中在几个方面，包括放宽就业法规，从而降低裁员难度，彻底调整电力行业格局，放松对医疗和儿童保育记录的管制以及普及互联网。

    Japan has struggled to keep its standing as the world's third-largest economy. For the past 15 years, it has been plagued by falling prices, making it the only major economy to undergo prolonged deflation since the Great Depression. Over the years, the government has tried to reboot the economy to what it once was, only to disappoint investors and the public repeatedly.

    This time, it's different under "Abenomics," the term coined to describe policy prescriptions launched by Japan's new prime minister Shinzo Abe. Last week, the central bank announced an aggressive plan to buy $75 billion of bonds a month. The hope is that this would send interest rates lower, giving people and businesses an incentive to borrow and spend more. It's also hoped the move would weaken the yen, which would allow struggling manufacturers to sell their goods and services cheaply to the rest of the world.

    There are, of course, some serious risks: Japan's government debt is extremely high. If the program doesn't work, Japan would fall deeper in the money hole. There's also the risk that it could create asset bubbles around the world. And if prices rise too rapidly ahead of Japan's already low wages, it would make everyone worse off.

    Japan has embarked on easing monetary policies several times before, but the move this time is unprecedented. Here are three reasons why:

Investors believe in a turnaround

    Japan has repeatedly tried to fix its economy, but efforts never really went anywhere. The banks bought up government bonds and helped drive down interest rates, but critics say those plans were too timid and confusing. They didn't encourage many people and businesses to borrow and spend more.

    This time, officials have set out a clearer plan -- complete with when and how it expects to raise inflation to 2%. Over the next two years, the Bank of Japan expects to double the country's money supply by buying debt and more exotic securities like ETFs. What's more, the bank lifted a restriction for buying longer-term securities, which signals to investors that it's in it for the long haul.

    "The new leadership is shaking up expectations," says Mireya Solis, a professor at American University and senior fellow at Brookings Institution. Solis, an expert on Japan's foreign economic policies, adds that this makes all the difference.

    The goals are indeed ambitious. Even Abe acknowledged that hitting the 2% target before the deadline in two years could be difficult. Nonetheless, the level of clarity he provided lets investors know what to expect, which in turn, helps them plan when and how much they can borrow.

They're not just throwing money at the problem

    Abe's plan to reboot Japan's economy doesn't stop with a bond-buying bonanza. Many say its economy is over-regulated, and the bounty of rules limiting the flow of business has kept the country from better times.

    Knowing this, Abe has made structural reform, such as deregulation, the so-called "third row" of his "Abenomics" plan to revive the economy. While talks are ongoing, discussions have centered around loosening employment rules to make it easier to shed workers, overhauling electric power utilities, deregulating medical and child care records, and promoting use of the Internet.