巴菲特股东大会见闻：苹果重新受到追捧

    谨慎对待美国股市，尤其是美国债市。欧洲市场颇具投资价值。伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）的股票不再是一笔划算的买卖，但是苹果公司（Apple）的股票也许可以买进了。这是今年在奥马哈举行的伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司年度股东大会上投资者的普遍看法。

    投资者对资本市场的感觉与当地天气如出一辙，阴雨绵绵且寒冷异常。但是这并没有阻止包括许多专业人士在内的万千投资者在这个周末涌入奥马哈，聆听沃伦•巴菲特对伯克希尔、经济形势和资本市场的总体看法。

    巴菲特往往会传递出一个乐观的信号，尤其是在经济以及美国市场方面。周六早上6:30，当Centurylink中心的大门一打开，在黑暗和寒冷中等候了几个小时的人们纷纷冲向了尽可能接近讲台的座位，希望能够近距离聆听巴菲特传经布道。

    经过了几年的动荡经济形势后，巴菲特的乐观看法似乎更有据可依。上周五公布的非农就业数据显示，美国4月份新增就业人数多于预期。与此同时，美国股市五年来首次出现了资金净流入。近期美国股市也接连刷新了历史记录高位。

    不过，巴菲特的信徒似乎再次与其他市场人士格格不入。

    在美国知名基金经理马里奥•盖伯里为哥伦比亚大学（Columbia University）赫尔布伦投资中心（Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing）举办的筹款宴会上，投资者们表示，美国股市的这轮上涨行情似乎走过头了。伯克希尔公司的股票也是如此，看上去不再是一个非常值得投资的标的。这和一年前面临的情况发生了近乎一百八十度的大逆转，当时在座的还是这些投资者，但他们大多看好大型公司的股票，尤其是伯克希尔。这次宴会仍然是在奥马哈市中心的希尔顿酒店举行。从伯克希尔年度股东大会会址——CenturyLink中心穿过街道即可到达。许多专业投资者通常会在周末举行的巴菲特年会的第一天晚上在此云集。巴菲特曾在哥伦比亚大学攻读研究生。

    另一位知名投资者利昂•库珀曼称，他认为企业盈利会让投资者失望。“但是在美联储（Federal Reserve）营造的环境下，没有什么资产能胜过股票，”库珀曼说。但若美联储撤销货币刺激措施，市场届时可能遭受重创。欧洲仍然是个问题，因为欧洲领导人在应对当地问题方面的行动一直相当迟缓。此前受益于政府支出的公司和部分经济领域很可能会在华盛顿削减开支和应对债务问题之际遭受重创。“我会远离任何一家从政府赤字中受益的公司，”库珀曼说。“他们的钱袋子要漏了。”曾就职于高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）的库珀曼如今掌管着资产管理规模达80亿美元的对冲基金——欧米茄顾问（Omega Advisors）公司。

    哥伦比亚大学著名投资学教授、第一雄鹰基金（FirstEagle Funds）研究总监布鲁斯•格林沃德指出，美国经济将陷入一个非常缓慢的增长环境。住房市场的复苏力度不足以推动经济增长，他说，美国家庭将不得不多存少花。中国和日本都将压低利率，美国的出口增长将因此受挫。

    Be cautious about U.S. stocks and, especially, bonds. Europe is a good value. Berkshire Hathaway's stock is no longer a buy, but Apple may be. That was the general feeling of investors gathered here in Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting.

    The mood about the market matched the weather, rainy and unseasonably cold. That didn't keep away the tens of thousands of investors, many professional, who pour into in this city each year for a weekend to hear Warren Buffett opine on his company's stock, the economy and the market in general.

    Buffett typically delivers an upbeat take on the economy and America especially. When the doors at the Centurylink Center opened at 6:30am Saturday, people who had been waiting outside in the dark and cold for hours dashed between rows of seats on the floor of the arena to get as close to the stage where Buffett will be speaking as possible.

    After a few years of trouble, Buffett seems to have more backing for his bullish view. Friday's jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than expected. For the first time in five years, investors are putting more money into the market then they are pulling out. Stocks have hit new all-time highs recently.

    Once again, though, Buffett's faithful seem out of step with the rest of the market.

    Investors speaking at a dinner sponsored by Mario Gabelli to benefit the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing at Columbia University, where Buffett went to graduate school, said the stock market rally seems to be getting ahead of itself. Berkshire, too, no longer seems like a great bet. That was a near 100% about-face from a year ago, when the same group was mostly bullish on the shares of large companies and Berkshire (BRKA) in particular. The dinner, once again, was held at the downtown Omaha Hilton, which is across the street from the Centurylink Center, where the Berkshire annual meeting is held, and where lots of professional investors typically congregate on the first night of Buffett's annual weekend.

    Leon Cooperman, a Goldman Sachs (GS) alumni who runs the $8 billion Omega Advisors hedge fund, said he thought corporate profits would disappoint investors. "The Federal Reserve has created an environment where there is no better asset than equities," Cooperman said. But when the Fed removes its stimulus, the market could suffer. Europe is a problem, because leaders there have been slow to address their problems. And the companies and parts of the economy that have benefited for a while from government spending are likely to be hit as Washington curtails spending and deals with the national debt. "I would stay away from any company that has benefited from the deficit," says Cooperman. "Their pockets are about to get unlined."

    Bruce Greenwald, Columbia's renowned investing professor and the Director of Research at FirstEagle Funds, said the economy was going to be stuck in a very slow growth environment. The housing recovery isn't going to be strong enough to drive the economy up, he said. U.S. households will have to save more and spend less. China and Japan are both going to hold down their currencies, thwarting growth of U.S. exports.