市场波动性可能进一步加剧

    大量关注细分市场上周的交易的投资者肯定注意到了一种细微的变化：波动性正在增大，而某些地方的市场流动性正变得越来越难，相关性正在变化，而焦虑情绪也在日益加重。此外，这些混乱似乎并没有同时影响所有细分市场，而是从流动性最差的市场逐渐向流动性较好的市场蔓延。

    这可能只是一种暂时的现象。毕竟，过去两年也出现过类似的情况。但它也可能意味着更深层次的变化；如果同我所怀疑的那样，这种相关联的潜在变化可能在长期来看是有利的，但也有可能代表着波动性更大的时期即将来临。

    这些问题的答案意义重大。它们要么意味着投资者应该期待风险资产将重新开始强劲反弹，要么意味着市场将面临调整的可能性；而且，这些答案将对增长和就业前景产生重要影响。

    那么，我们先来看其中的一些基本问题，首先来看日本：

    对于日本战后最大胆的经济政策试验，投资者们的反应是，这些政策是过去几个月来风险资本反弹的重要因素。日本央行（Bank of Japan ）大规模购买证券的举动以及扩张性的财政政策，再加上进行有效结构改革的可能性，这些措施吸引了全球投资者增持日本的股票和高风险的企业债券，致使两者的价格越来越高。

    但过去几天，日本已经难以持续发出建设性的信号。自5月22日以来，日经指数（Nikkei）下跌了12%，日跌幅曾达到7%、5%和3%。日本政府债券的行为非常不稳定，变得越来越反复无常。而且，日元的单向波动也在减弱。

    日本政府对此似乎非常担忧，而且也有理由担忧。

    日本政府此次进行了一次大规模的政策试验。如果这次的尝试不能带领日本走出它长达25年的增长停滞泥潭，之后出现金融震荡的风险将进一步加剧。

    实施了最初的政策措施后，日本政府现在只能“倾其所有”。除了继续进行更深入的试验，影响市场定价和投资者行为外，它已别无选择。目前有未经确认的消息称，“日本1万亿美元的公共养老基金正在考虑增持日本股票。”而日本央行面临巨大压力，必须更加明确和强势。

    日本的不确定性所带来的破坏性市场影响也引起了人们对于另外一个重要的市场政策支柱，也就是美联储（Federal Reserve Bank）大规模证券购买计划的担忧。

    华盛顿最近释放的信号导致许多市场参与者相信，美联储将“退出”证券购买计划，而金融市场将因此失去美联储提供的巨大支持，它所造成的影响在其他发达国家和新兴市场的政府债券市场将非常明显。

    Those trading in many market segments would have noticed a subtle change last week: Volatility is on the rise, liquidity is getting tougher in certain places, correlations are morphing, and anxiety has increased. Moreover, rather than impact all market segments simultaneously, such dislocations seem to be cascading gradually from the least liquid to the more liquid ones.

    This could well be just a blip. After all, we have had similar episodes in the last two years. Alternatively, it could be indicative of a deeper change; and, if it is (as I suspect), the related underlying shifts could be secularly beneficial or could well signal more volatile times ahead.

    The answers to these questions are consequential. They speak to whether investors should expect the strong rally in risk assets to resume or whether markets face the possibility of a correction; and they have an important influence on the prospects for growth and jobs.

    So let us take a look at some of the key issues, starting with Japan:

    Investor reaction to Japan's boldest post-war policy experiment has been an important contributor to the rally in risk assets over the last few months. The combination of large purchases of securities by the Bank of Japan and more expansionary fiscal policy, along with the possibility of meaningful structural reforms, has pushed investors around the world to augment their holdings of equities and risky corporate bonds at increasingly elevated prices.

    In the last few days, however, Japan is no longer emitting a consistently constructive signal. The Nikkei has fallen 12% since May 22, with some notable daily drops of 7%, 5% and 3%. The behavior of Japanese government bonds has been quite volatile and increasingly inconsistent. And the Yen is now less unidirectional.

    Japan's government seems worried about this, and it should be.

    The policy experiment is a huge one. If it fails to dislodge the country out of its 25-year growth malaise, the risk of subsequent financial disruptions would rise significantly.

    Having taken its initial policy measures, the Japanese government is now essentially "all in." It has no choice but to venture even deeper into experimental territory as it attempts to influence market pricing and investor behavior. Already there is an unconfirmed news report stating that "the nation's $1 trillion public pension fund is considering increasing its holdings in equities." For its part, the Bank of Japan is under pressure to be even more explicit and forceful.

    The disruptive market impact of uncertainties in Japan has been accompanied by concerns about another important policy prop for markets -- the large security purchases by America's Federal Reserve Bank.

    Recent signals out of Washington have led many market participants to believe that the Fed will be "tapering" its buying program, and thus reduce the enormous support it provides to financial markets. The result has been a sharp move upward in yields on U.S. government debt, the impact of which is visible in other government bond markets in both advanced and emerging countries.