斯洛文尼亚才是欧元区下一张倒下的多米诺

    斯洛文尼亚可能会成为似乎无休无止的欧洲主权债务危机中即将倒下的下一张多米诺骨牌。由于过去几年里受到腐败猖獗、银行业危机及不良财政政策等三方面的影响，这个地处阿尔卑斯山的小国国内经济一片惨淡。虽然主权债务违约并未到迫在眉睫的地步，不过可能已经不远了，届时必定会在其他欧洲国家的投资者中掀起一股不满的浪潮。

    对于欧元区来说，上周应该是令人欣喜的一周。权威人士几乎个个以为欧元区到现在会缩小规模，但是由十七大成员国组成的这个货币联盟已经接纳了拉脱维亚这位新成员国。在布鲁塞尔，欧洲官僚个个喜形于色，趁机对欧盟的怀疑派发起反击。“拉脱维亚渴望使用欧元，表明对我们通用货币满怀信心，”欧盟货币事务专员奥利•雷恩上周三在布鲁塞尔对记者说。“这也进一步说明，那些认为欧元区会瓦解的人，其实是后知后觉，大错特错。”

    不过，拉脱维亚进入欧元区不应该当作是对欧元这株病秧子投上信任的一票。这个前苏联共和国总是信誓旦旦的说要加入欧元区，至今已有多年之久，因为拉脱维亚政府希望从政治上和经济上进一步疏远自己和俄罗斯前巨头的关系。事实上，拉脱维亚别无他法。根据2003年加入欧盟时的约定，拉脱维亚达的一些经济指标达到一定水平后就必须加入欧元区。拉脱维亚本币自2005年以来就与欧元挂钩，因此无论从哪一方面来讲，拉脱维亚早就成为欧元区名副其实的成员国了。

    欧元区或许越来越“壮大”，不过还谈不上更加“健康”。实际上，整个欧洲经济问题犹存：西班牙银行系统摇摇欲坠；意大利新政府时下正在撤销财政紧缩措施；荷兰政府支出失去控制；而法国却仍然患有妄想症。由于许多欧元区大国财政存在不稳定因素，因此人们很容易忽略周边小国正在滋生的一些问题。不过从希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙及最近的例子塞浦路斯来看，我们可以发现，一些小国家出现的大问题会很快失控，从而导致整个欧元区出现重大金融震荡。

    斯洛文尼亚就是此时此刻似乎正深陷重大困境的小国中的一员。考虑到它是东欧前共产主义国家中“最西方化”以及经济稳定的一员，人们可能会感到惊讶，不过斯洛文尼亚的确存在一些重大问题，最终会迫使它向欧洲央行（European Central Bank）寻求救助。

    乍一看，斯洛文尼亚政府似乎并不存在希腊或意大利那样的支出问题。斯洛文尼亚的债务率为53%，远低于欧盟约90%的平均水平。不过该国国内经济眼下正处于自由落体状态，没有任何迹象显示短时间内会出现复苏。2008年以来，斯洛文尼亚的国内生产总值下降了10.6%，按高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）报告的说法，这可谓“所有欧元区经济体中下滑最严重的一次”。斯洛文尼亚内需下滑更严重，自2007年以来降幅度达20%。最后，由于许多主要贸易伙伴均陷入衰退泥潭，斯洛文尼亚的出口在去年出现零增长。由此一来，面对税收下滑局面的斯洛文尼亚政府也因此被迫按5%至8%左右的（较）高利率筹措更多资金来维持运转。由于国债日益增加，而国内生产总值却日益下滑，斯洛文尼亚目前低于均值的负债比率将会出现迅速上升的势头。

    Slovenia may be the next domino to fall in the seemingly endless European sovereign debt crisis. The tiny alpine nation's economy has been ripped apart over the last few years thanks to rampant corruption, a banking crisis, and unsound fiscal policies. While a sovereign default isn't exactly imminent, it may be just around the corner, setting off a wave of discontent among investors in other European nations.

    This week was supposed to be a happy one for the euro. Instead of getting smaller, as pretty much every pundit thought would happen by now, the 17-member currency club welcomed in a new member, Latvia. In Brussels, European bureaucrats were all smiles, taking the opportunity to bash eurosceptics. "Latvia's desire to adopt the Euro is a sign of confidence in our common currency," Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for monetary affairs, told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. "It is further evidence that those who predicted a disintegration of the Euro were indeed behind the curve and simply wrong."

    But Latvia's accession into the euro club shouldn't be seen as a vote of confidence in the sickly common currency. The former Soviet republic has been banging to get into the currency club for years now, mostly in an attempt by the Latvian government to further distance itself both politically and economically from its former Russian overlords. In fact, Latvia really had no choice but to join the club given the terms of its entrance into the European Union in 2003, which states that it must join the Euro after hitting certain economic markers. Its currency has been pegged to the Euro since 2005, so for all intents and purposes it has been a de facto member of the club for years.

    The eurozone may be getting bigger, but that doesn't mean it is getting any healthier. Indeed, there remain pockets of economic trouble all around the continent: Spain's banks remain shaky; Italy's new government is reversing austerity measures; the Netherlands can't control its spending; and France remains delusional. With so many of the big eurozone countries in fiscal turmoil, it can be easy to overlook the issues bubbling up in the smaller countries on the periphery. But as we have seen with Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and most recently, Cyprus, big problems in small countries can quickly spin out of control, causing major financial disruptions across the eurozone.

    One of those small countries that seems to be in some big trouble at the moment is Slovenia. That may be surprising given its reputation for being the "most Western" and economically stable of the former communist Eastern bloc, but Slovenia has some major issues that could eventually force it to seek a bailout from the European Central Bank.

    At first blush, it doesn't appear as if the government has a spending problem, a la that of the likes of Greece or Italy. Its debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 53%, which is well below the EU average of around 90%. But the nation's economy is in free fall and shows no sign of recovering anytime soon. Its GDP has fallen by 10.6% from 2008, which is "one of the most severe falls in any Euro area economy," according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Domestic demand in the country has fallen even harder, down 20% from 2007. Lastly, export growth stalled last year as many of Slovenia's lead trading partners fell into recession. All this has resulted in a drop in tax receipts, which has forced the government to borrow more money at (relatively) high interest rates of around 5% to 8% to stay afloat. With the country's debt increasing and GDP falling, that below average debt-to-GDP ratio Slovenia is currently sporting will start to move up pretty fast.