股市抛售潮刚刚开始

    上周那48小时真是惊心动魄，一切都乱套了。

    我们正式从瀑布上方掉了下来。我们的船现在还在半空。人们挂在树上。每个人都手忙脚乱，想搞清楚自己他们漏掉了什么。希望弄明白到底是怎么回事。表面看是伯南克引发了这场大震荡，掌握中央计划集权的美联储各大佬也是重要的帮凶。

    真实情况呢？其实，一切的一切都是在沿着理所应当的轨迹在发展。

    如果您依赖数据进行判断，如果您依托于严谨的量化分析进行研究（但愿不是这样），这是一个非常直截了当的结论。我们一直说，美国经济增长在加速（远远领先于普遍的预期）。

    下面就是事实依据：从2012年12月至2013年3月，美国经济数据企稳。从4月到6月，经济增速加快。6月18日，罗素2000指数（Russell 2000）创下历史高点。上周三，美联储基本上重复了这些事实，同时阐明了收紧量化宽松政策的理由。这是市场大震荡的导火索。

    在这次恐慌性抛盘之前很长一段时间，所有这些市场的大震荡早已潜藏在平静的表面之下。当市场对什么东西不怎么信任时，隐含波动率的远期曲线就会开始上升。当他们真的不信任什么时，波动率上升得更快。这就是凸性。

    对于早已大跌的投资品种（比如黄金、美国国债、新兴市场等等），隐含波动率凸性概念6个月来已显而易见。但对于美国股市，这个概念还比较新。

    随着过去3个月消费、就业和住房增长加速，股市预期下降虽然看起来有些奇怪，但却讲得通。我们的美联储 A) 在预测方面非常糟糕；B) 在“沟通”的时机选择方面妥协而矛盾。伯南克留下了这个烂摊子——现在我们都不得不面对它。

    我们在黄金、美国国债和新兴市场都可以看到巨量的抛售，我们所处的可能是一个长期大趋势的早期阶段。

    What an epic 48 hours it has been. Just. Total. Chaos.

    We are officially going over the waterfall now. Boats are in midair. People are hanging on trees. Everybody is scrambling, trying to explain what they missed. Trying to make sense out of it all. Hat tip to Bernanke-sponsored bedlam with a big assist from our Central-Planning Fed Overlords.

    The reality? Everything is playing out precisely how it should have played out.

    If you're data-dependent, if you have a rigorous quantitative process backing the research (God forbid), this was a fairly straightforward call to make. U.S. growth has been accelerating as we have been saying all along (well ahead of consensus).

    Here are the facts: U.S. economic data stabilized from December 2012 through March 2013. From April to June, growth accelerated. On June 18th the Russell 2000 hit an all-time high. On Wednesday, the Fed basically repeated all of this and outlined its view on tapering. Cue market mayhem.

    All of these market dislocations were percolating underneath the surface of consensus well before this frenzy. When markets don't trust something, the forward curve of implied volatility starts to rise. When they really don't trust something, that volatility rises at a faster rate. It's called convexity.

    In terms of implied volatility in everything that was already crashing (gold, Treasuries, emerging markets, etc), that concept has been pretty straightforward for going on for six months now. For U.S. equities, it's relatively new.

    As consumption, employment, and housing growth accelerated in the last three months, stock market expectations went right squirrel. While it may seem strange, it does make sense. We have a Federal Reserve that is A) horrendous in terms of forecasting and B) compromised and conflicted in terms of timing its "communications." Bernanke made his legacy bed -- now we all have to sleep in it.

    This huge selloff we're witnessing in gold, Treasuries, and emerging markets -- we are in the early innings of what could be a long-term macro trend.