美元迈入走强新时代

    长达十年的美元汇率下跌之势可能已经接近尾声。

    相对于全球其他主要货币，美元汇率开始走高，原因是有迹象表明美国经济增长正在改善，这是近几年不曾出现过的情况。谁知道未来几个月会发生些什么，但一些分析师和交易员已将最近的反弹视为美元颓势终结的开始信号。

    周一，衡量美元对其他六大贸易伙伴国货币汇率的美元指数升至82.7742。而此前一周这个指数已经上涨了2.2%——是19个月以来最大的周涨幅。美元兑日元走势特别强劲，上周大涨3.8%至97.90日元，为2009年12月最后一周以来的最大周涨幅。

    野村（Normura）全球外汇主管金斯•诺德威格说：“如果美元在未来三、四年走高，我不会感到意外。”他在5月29日写给客户的研究报告中预测，美元将持久走强。

    这将是美元最显著的结构性变化。从2003年起，美元汇率总体下滑，虽然其中也有过几次短期上涨。但与我们最近几周看到的上涨不同，美元上涨是因为好消息，而不是坏消息。

    2009年以来，只要美元一涨，惊慌的投资者就担心美国经济崩盘。由于银行惜贷，美元在金融危机后走强。随着信贷紧缩和利率上调，美元上涨，而美股下跌。欧元区危机最混乱的岁月里，交易员和投资者纷纷逃离欧元，转向相对安全的美元。

    所有这些都导致像诺德威格这样的外汇专家认为，这一次情况有所不同；最近的反弹可能将延续较长的时间，就算没有几年的时间，至少也要延续到2014年年中。

    如果发生这种情况，美国将在全球货币战争中败北。3年前，巴西财政部长吉多•曼特加警告称，全球陷入困境的经济体正在采取措施推动本币贬值。这样做除了提高出口竞争力，可能也为全球市场金融混乱埋下了伏笔。吉多预计，随着全球经济放缓，这场战争今年将升级，但或许，他会想重新考虑一下美国的情况。

    上周，美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）主席本•伯南克表示，如果美国经济继续好转，美联储将在今年晚些时候放缓债券回购。如果失业率从当前的7.5%下降到7%，它可能会在2014年年中完全停止此项操作。美国国债收益率受美联储前景预测刺激而大涨，投资者预计利率可能进一步上涨促使他们撤出债券投资。周一，卖盘猛增，10年期美国国债收益率增至2.64%——为2011年8月以来的最高水平。

    随着利率上涨，借贷成本也在上升。因此，美国经济中流通美元数量减少的预期也推高了美元汇率。正当美国经济前景好转之时，日本和欧洲的低迷经济仍促使日元、欧元走弱，也对推高美元汇率起到了作用。

    如果这种状况继续，美国可能会因为美元走强而在这场货币大战中落败。(财富中文网)

    The U.S. dollar's decade-long decline could be approaching an end.

    Against the world's major currencies, the value of the greenback has been strengthening on signs that the U.S. economy is improving -- a development that hasn't happened in recent years. Who knows what might transpire months from today, but some analysts and traders have taken the recent rally as a sign of the beginning of the end of the dollar's slump.

    On Monday, The Dollar Index, a measure of the U.S. currency against its six major trading partners, rose to 82.7742. This follows gains built on last week's 2.2% rally -- its biggest weekly rise in 19 months. The dollar has been particularly strong against the Japanese yen, rising 3.8% to 97.90 yen last week -- the most since the last week of December 2009.

    "I would not be surprised if the dollar trended higher over the new three or four years," says Jens Nordvig, global head of currency at Normura. In a May 29 note to clients, he forecasted a prolonged strengthening of the dollar.

    This would be a significant structural shift for the currency. Since 2003, it has generally declined in value, with a few short-term spikes. Unlike the gains we've seen in recent weeks, however, the dollar has risen on good rather than bad news.

    Since 2009, whenever the currency gained, panicky investors worried the economy was in meltdown. The dollar strengthened in the wake of the financial crisis as banks were reluctant to lend. With a credit crunch and interest rates rising, the dollar rose as U.S. stocks sank. And during the most tumultuous months of Eurozone crisis, traders and investors fled the euro for relatively safer U.S. dollars.

    All this has led currency experts like Nordvig and others to believe that this time is different; that the recent rally could last longer, at least well into 2014, if not a few more years.

    If that happens, the U.S. would lose the global currency war. Three years ago, Brazilian Prime Minister Guido Mantega warned troubled economies around the world were taking measures to weaken their currencies. While this makes exports more competitive, it potentially spells financial turmoil for global markets. Guido predicted the war would intensify this year as the world economy slows, but perhaps he might want to take another look at the U.S.

    Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said if the economy continues to do better the central bank could slow down its bond purchases later this year, and possibly stop the program altogether by mid-2014 if the unemployment rate falls to 7% from the current 7.5%. U.S. Treasuries have spiked on the Fed's outlook as investors anticipating that interest rates could rise further fled their investments in bonds. On Monday, the sell-off picked up steam, as the 10-year note spiked to 2.64% -- the highest level since August 2011.

    With interest rates rising, the cost of borrowing goes up. So expectations for fewer U.S. dollars circulating in the economy have pushed up the value of the greenback. It also helps that while the U.S. is seeing better economic times, troubled economies in Japan and Europe have weakened the yen and the euro.

    If this continues, America would lose the currency war by winning with a stronger greenback.