我为什么打赌市场将回归常态？

    这里没有什么黑天鹅。

    这是对冲基金经理克里夫•阿斯内斯的观点，他管理着业内最大的对冲基金之一、资产管理总额达800亿美元的AQR。利率的迅速上升以及道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数最近两日内大跌800点让不少投资者担心我们可能将进入新一轮经济危机的初期阶段。

    让人更加忧心忡忡的是，所有这一切似乎都源于本•伯南克建议美联储（Fed）或许可以很快缩减其债券购买计划。有些人一直警告称，这种做法将带来灾难性的后果。

    阿斯内斯的建议：冷静。这位投资者称，美联储对市场的影响被夸大了。他预计，最近股市债市的双双暴跌已暂时结束。“这种跌法根本没有理由持续下去，”阿斯内斯说。“市场中没有出现流动性危机，也没有大规模解约。这与2008年的状况不同。”

    有些人认为，过度杠杆化以及华尔街交易商因为限于新规、不再愿意支持债券市场，这些因素都导致市场承受着压力。阿斯内斯表示，他没有看到任何这样的证据。他说，有些债券市场的流动性低于通常水平，但他并没有看到任何类似于2008年的市场大震荡正在酝酿之中。阿斯内斯说：“市场运转良好。”

    据阿斯内斯称，让市场猝不及防的是，此次利率上升出现在通胀持平、企业现金流预期尚未显著改观、大宗商品价格下跌之时。这种情况不太寻常。而且，与此同时，中国经济也在放缓。阿斯内斯说：“听起来就像是一场完美风暴。”

    不过，这种情况是不可持续的。按照阿斯内斯的看法，要么利率必须回落，要么经济增长必须加速。无论哪种方式，投资者应该都会受益。“当前绝大多数的证据都表明，市场环境将恢复到更加正常的水平，”阿斯内斯表示。“我愿意为此打赌，用我自己的钱。”

    阿斯内斯或许希望市场尽快恢复常态。虽然我们很难知道AQR最近的总体表现（对冲基金不必向非投资者披露投资业绩，阿斯内斯也没有说），但他管理的很多公开上市交易的共同基金在最近的市场暴跌中受到了冲击。最值得注意的是，AQR旗下热门的风险平价(Risk Parity)基金（资产管理规模12亿美元）在过去一个月里就跌去了10%；2013年迄今跌幅已经达到了5.7%。

    确实，最近市场的大跌已经让风险平价基金总体的吸引力有所下降，新闻聚合网站Buzzfeed最近将这类基金捧为投资策略界的史蒂夫•卡瑞尔（著名喜剧明星），我认为这话是恭维。

    我们大多数人通常认为，多元化就是将一些高风险资产和一些低风险资产组合起来。风险平价基金背后的理念可没这么简单。投资者真正要做的是选一些高风险资产和一些无风险资产，然后基于这些无风险资产运用杠杆，使得所有资产都具备相同的风险，也就是平价。这种策略有一段时间表现相当不错，但最近不怎么样。另一家大型对冲基金公司布里奇沃特投资公司（Bridgewater Associates）旗下的风险平价基金All Weather基金（资产管理规模700亿美元），今年也下跌了8%。

    阿斯内斯称，他不像有些人那样对于美联储（Fed）终止量化宽松政策那么担心。这个刺激措施对于美国经济究竟是有益、还是有害，他认为“很难说”。“货币政策就像是狗在追车，”阿斯内斯称。“央行总是落在后边，等到追上了，也不知道到底该做些什么。它其实就是撒纸屑追逐游戏。”（财富中文网）

    No black swans here.

    That's the opinion of hedge fund manager Cliff Asness, who runs AQR Capital, which is one of the industry's biggest firms with $80 billion under management. The rapid move up in interest rates and the recent 800-point two-day drop in the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) has more than a few investors worried we might be seeing the beginning stages of a new economic crisis.

    Adding to the anxiety is the fact that all this seems to be triggered by Ben Bernanke's suggestion that the Fed may soon curtail its bond buying stimulus program, which some have been warning would spell doom.

    Asness's advice: Chill out. The investor says the effect of the Fed on the market has been exaggerated. He expects the recent combined rout of stocks and bonds to be over for now. "There is absolutely no reason for this to continue," says Asness. "There is no liquidity crisis or big unwind. This is not 2008."

    Some have said that the market is suffering from excess leverage or the fact that Wall Street dealers, because of new rules, are no longer willing to support the bond market. Asness says he sees no evidence of that. He says some bond market are less liquid than usual, but he sees no signs of the type of market turmoil we saw brewing back in 2008. "Markets are functioning well," says Asness.

    What has caught the market off guard, according to Asness, is that interest rates are rising at a time when inflation is flat, expectations for corporate cash flows haven't dramatically improved, and commodity prices are falling. That's not what normally happens. What's more, this is all coming at a time when China is slowing as well. "Sounds like a perfect storm," says Asness.

    That's not sustainable. In Asness's opinion, either interest rates have to head back down, or growth has to pick up. Either way, investors should benefit. "The preponderance of evidence right now suggests a return to more a normal market environment," says Asness. "I would bet on that, and I am with my own money."

    Asness would probably like to get back to a normal as quickly as possible. Although it's hard to know how AQR has performed recently overall -- hedge funds don't have to disclose their performance to anyone other than their investors, and Asness isn't saying -- a number of his publicly trading mutual funds have suffered in the recent market rout. The most notable is AQR's popular Risk Parity fund (AQRIX), which has $1.2 billion in assets and tumbled 10% in the past month. It's now down 5.7% in 2013.

    Indeed, the recent market downturn has taken some of the allure off of risk parity funds in general, which Buzzfeed recent touted as the the Steve Carell of investment strategies, which I think was a compliment.

    Most of us usually think of diversification as combining some risky assets and some less risky assets. The idea behind risk parity funds is that's silly. What you really need to do is take some risky assets and some non-risky assets, and then leverage up those non-risky assets so everything is just the same amount of risk, i.e. parity. That worked pretty well for a while, until recently, when it hasn't. The All Weather fund, which is the $70 billion risk parity fund of Bridgewater Associates, another large hedge fund firm, is also down 8% this year.

    Asness says he is not as worried as some about the end of the Fed's quantitative easing. He says he is "shockingly agnostic" about whether the stimulus effort was good or bad for the economy. "Monetary policy is like a dog chasing a car," says Asness. "Central bankers are always behind, and then not quite sure what to do when they catch up. It's just paper chasing paper."