巴西如何重获投资者青睐

    巴西的大规模抗议活动或许已有所缓和，但动荡局势远未终结。上周早些时候，在里约热内卢足球赛场（巴西-西班牙比赛）外动用催泪瓦斯便是明证。这样的动荡局面可能会让早已脆弱不堪的巴西金融市场形势更为严峻。这场由于上个月巴士票价上调引发的抗议潮让巴西政府为缓解国际投资者轮番撤离新兴市场的过程中可能出现的灾难性资本外逃而做的努力大打折扣。

    如果巴西政府不迅速采取行动化解躁动的民愤情绪，同时向投资界证明该国将恪守负责任的政府支出，巴西可能会因此陷入严重的经济滑坡。

    巴西人大多安于现状。他们经历过独裁统治、腐败政府和剧烈的经济震荡，并没有多少普遍的怨言。是的，这个国家也是最晚取缔奴隶制的西方国家，而且取缔奴隶制并不是因为大范围的民众起义，而是因为时间使然。

    但巴西在过去几年已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。如今近2亿的巴西人比在巴西短暂的历史上任何时期的巴西人都更加富有，受教育情况也更好。过去10年，巴西有约4,000万人口脱离贫困，占总人口比例高达20%。与此同时，高等教育入学人数已经增加了一倍，年轻人口的非文盲比例也已经超过97%。

    这些都是投资者乐于听到的消息。一个国家人口的富裕程度和受教育程度提高往往会带动该国各项服务和资产的消费良性增长。它造就了经济增长螺旋式上升，投资者能够在各种不同的市场都收获良好的回报。

    因此，拥有丰富可开采自然资源以及快速增长服务行业的巴西当时是很多投资者热衷的新兴市场，特别是那些专注固定收益的投资者。投资者可以安心地把现金放在这里，收获远超他们在欧洲、甚至美国能获得的回报。

    而且，巴西还是一个拥有相对完善法律体系的民主国家，当时为投资者提供了远离政治风险的保障，这一点在新兴市场经济体中非常罕见。巴西受到投资者的热烈欢迎，即使巴西经济增长在2011-2012年间陷入了停滞，它获得的外国直接投资额仍然稳定地保持在650亿美元左右。人们满怀希望，相信巴西经济会反弹。

    但巴西的经济状况非但没有好转，看起来似乎恶化了。上个月在巴西政府宣布预计经济增速将进一步下滑后，信用评级机构穆迪（Moody's）和标普（S&P）双双调低了巴西的债务评级。巴西国债交易员告诉《财富》杂志（Fortune） 称，这个消息造成了巴西固定收益市场资本大批外流。彭博社（Bloomberg）的一项分析显示，今年二季度，美元计价的巴西债券下跌近8%，创下自2002年以来的单季最大跌幅。

    The massive protests in Brazil may have subsided, but the unrest is far from over, as evidenced by the tear gas earlier this week outside the Brazil-Spain soccer game in Rio. The turmoil threatens to exacerbate an already tense situation for the nation's shaky financial markets. The protests, which erupted last month in response to a hike in bus fares, is undermining the Brazilian government's attempt to alleviate a potentially disastrous flight of foreign capital as investors cycle out of emerging markets.

    If the government doesn't move to address the grievances of its restless and frustrated population quickly and prove to the investment community that it is still committed to responsible government spending, then the country could be setting itself up for a severe economic downturn.

    Brazilians rarely like to rock the boat. They have lived through dictatorships, corrupt governments and wild economic swings without much popular dissent. Indeed, this was, after all, the last western nation to ban slavery -- and it didn't come about because of a mass popular uprising, it just happened because it was time.

    But Brazil has changed dramatically in the last few years. Brazilians, now numbering nearly 200 million, are richer and more educated than at any time in the nation's short history. An amazing 20% of the population, around 40 million people, have been lifted out of poverty in the past decade. At the same time, enrollment in higher education has doubled and the nation's literacy rates among youths now tops 97%.

    These are all good things for investors to hear. A richer and more educated population usually leads to a healthy uptick in spending within the country on a variety of services and assets. This creates an upward spiral in economic growth where investors are able to reap healthy returns across a variety of markets.

    As such, with an abundance of exploitable natural resources and a growing service sector, Brazil was the favorite emerging market for many investors, especially those concentrated in fixed income. Investors were able to park their cash with ease and reap returns that well exceeded whatever they could get back in Europe or even in the United States.

    Furthermore, as a legitimate democracy with a somewhat competent legal system, Brazil also offered investors security from political risk, a rarity among emerging market economies. Brazil was so popular that foreign direct investment had held steady at around $65 billion from 2011 to 2012 even though economic growth in the country had stalled. The hope was that Brazil would bounce back.

    But instead of things picking up, Brazil's economy just seems to be getting worse. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P both downgraded Brazilian debt last month after the government said it was expecting a further slowdown in economic growth. Traders in Brazilian government debt tell Fortune that this is causing a major outflow of capital from Brazil's fixed income markets. As such, dollar-denominated Brazilian bonds are down nearly 8% in the second quarter of this year, the largest such decrease for a single quarter since 2002, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.