全球局势动荡，美国金价逆势下跌之谜

    金价目前已从近期高点下跌了25％以上，从而促使一些观察人士宣称金价有望创自1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来的最大单季跌幅。

    这其中略微有些误导性：1971年黄金平均价格为每盎司40美元左右。次年为每盎司58美元。到了发生阿拉伯石油禁运的1974年，黄金平均价格为每盎司154美元。尼克松总统在1971年让美元脱离金本位制，开启了黄金市场这个历史上最具风险的市场之一。从此，每当真正有价值的东西（石油、食物）价格上涨时，投机者能够从间或无价值的（货币）逃向完全无价值的（黄金）。

    尼克松让美元脱离金本位制之后，美元大幅下跌。时任美国财政部长约翰•康纳利欢呼，称美国“取得了掌控地位，”加速了布雷顿森林体系汇率制度的解体。尼克松走上国家电视台表示，关闭黄金窗口将会让美元趋于稳定，乃至走强。翌日（周一），道琼斯指数出现至那时为止最大的单日涨幅（上涨33点 —— 多么美好的往昔啊！）。

    现如今，即便在全球局势持续动荡的同时，金价却持续下跌。下面是对金价下跌予以评估时值得考虑的四则新闻：

    埃及。虽然时事评论员不知道埃及局势动荡对全球市场可能会造成什么影响，但我们认为，它对美国造成的影响很可能是轻微的。美国每年给予埃及的对外援助资金不到20亿美元，这笔资金并没有被考虑到有关预算和赤字的争论之中。

    埃及局势动荡可能会引起我们注意的是大宗商品。埃及虽然不是一个石油生产国，但市场担忧这场骚乱可能会导致苏伊士运河遭到关闭，促使投机者关注油价。投资研究及资讯机构Hedgeye风险管理公司金融行业高级分析师乔纳森•卡斯特林表示，由于新建成的原油管道输送能力促使西德州轻质低硫原油（WTI，作为北美石油需求的一个基准指标）迅速流向炼油厂，布伦特原油（作为欧洲和亚洲石油需求的一个基准指标）与WTI之间的价差近期收窄。曾经20美元左右的溢价下滑至5美元左右，表明投机者现在已撤离这项价差交易。

    卡斯特林表示，石油投机者追逐价格。如果埃及紧张局势加剧的话，那么些微动荡就会促使布伦特/WTI价差回升。美国人会在加油站加油时感觉到这点，但如果真的发生这种情况的话，我们预计欧佩克成员国不会一致上调石油价格。

    巴西。以悠闲著称的这个国家目前享受着该国有史以来最低水平的失业率以及最高水平的普遍繁荣。但现在该国爆发了一系列大规模的示威游行活动，在全国各地的100多个城市里，一百多万巴西人走上街头游行示威，呼喊口号。巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫虽然拥有“民间信誉”——她曾是一名游击队员，而且自己曾在军事独裁统治下遭到囚禁和折磨，而且还前所未有地解除了六名涉嫌腐败的内阁部长的职务，并因此而赢得赞誉，但她还是没有能够笼络示威者。目前的局势动荡看来不太可能很快得到控制。那么，鉴于我们后院出现这种动荡局势，为什么金价没有上涨呢？

    土耳其。对于我们的投资资金而言，这是与埃及相比利害关系更大的一场游戏。土耳其总理埃尔多安已表示，他已忍无可忍了，这明显是在向示威者发出警告。土耳其军队数十年来一直以遏制宗教原教旨主义而著称，而该国目前正在经历严重的社会冲突，埃尔多安已经监禁了多名高级军官和新闻界人士。

    Gold is down more than 25% from its recent highs, leading some observers to declare it on track for its biggest one-quarter decline since the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971.

    This is a bit misleading: the average price of gold in 1971 was around $40 an ounce. The following year it was $58. By 1974, the year of the Arab oil embargo, gold averaged $154 an ounce. By taking the dollar off the gold standard in 1971, President Nixon kicked off one of the great risk markets in history, allowing speculators to flee from the occasionally useless (currency) to the utterly useless (gold) whenever the prices of really useful things (oil, food) went up.

    The dollar collapsed after Nixon took it off the gold standard. Treasury Secretary John Connally cheered, saying the U.S. "took charge," precipitating the dismembering of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system. Nixon went on national TV and said closing the gold window would stabilize and strengthen the dollar. The following day -- a Monday -- the Dow had its biggest one-day gain ever (33 points -- those were the days!).

    Fast-forward to today as the price of gold fades, even as global turmoil continues. Here are four news items to consider in evaluating gold's decline:

    Egypt. While media pundits wonder what effect the turmoil in Egypt may have on global markets, we think the impact on the U.S. is likely to be slight. At less than $2 billion, the amount of foreign aid the U.S. gives Egypt annually doesn't factor into arguments over budgets and deficits.

    Where this might grab our attention is in commodities. Egypt is not an oil producer, but fear that the unrest could close the Suez Canal has speculators looking at oil prices. Hedgeye financials senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn says the price spread of Brent oil (a proxy for European and Asian demand) over West Texas crude (WTI, a measure of North American demand) came down recently as new pipeline capacity expedited WTI flowing through to refining. What used to be around a $20 premium declined to about $5, indicating speculators are now out of this trade.

    Casteleyn says oil speculators run after price, and a bit of unrest could pop the Brent/WTI spread back up if the tension builds. Americans would feel that at the pump, but we don't foresee anything like a concerted OPEC price hike if that were to occur.

    Brazil. The famously laid-back nation, currently enjoying its lowest levels of unemployment and highest levels of general prosperity in history, has exploded in demonstrations with over a million people marching and chanting in more than 100 cities across the country. Despite her "street cred" as a former guerrilla who was herself imprisoned and tortured under the military dictatorship -- and despite her winning praise for her unprecedented sacking of half a dozen cabinet ministers for corruption -- Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff has not been able to co-opt the demonstrators. The current unrest doesn't look likely to be brought under control any time soon. So why isn't gold going up, with this unrest in our backyard?

    Turkey. For our money, this is a much higher-stakes game than the one being played in Egypt. Prime minister Erdogan has said he is at the end of his patience, an unsubtle warning to demonstrators. Turkey, where the army famously held religious fundamentalism in check for decades, is undergoing severe social friction as Erdogan has jailed senior military officers and members of the press.