美联储寄望以时间换空间

    金融市场经历了5、6月份令人不安的动荡之后，美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）周三选择维持市场稳定。因此，两个（如果不是三个）间接需要作出的决策被推迟到了9月份。它带来了一个问题，那就是，当前追求的市场稳定能否延续，将来会不会带来更大的不稳定？

    周三下午，美联储在结束了两天的政策会议后，主要告诉了我们三件事：美国经济持续回暖，但失业率仍处于高位，经济增长不温不火；鉴于现实依然需要“高度融通的货币政策立场”，央行政策制定者们预计将长期保持政策利率低位；经济前景仍然不确定，包括通胀和通缩的平衡问题。

    更重要的是央行决策者们决定这次会议决定暂不处理的问题。其中两点很突出：关于"缩减"美联储购买市场证券的规模和未来政策走向，他们没有提供更多信息。

    可以理解，美联储为什么决定暂不讨论这些问题。

    5、6月份提出美联储拟缩减债券购买规模后出现的极度市场错配说明，投资者对未来能否实现从“协力”增长向“真正的”增长有序转换没什么信心。因此，美联储对经济的支持力度缩减被视为操之过急，具有破坏性。

    美联储官员很可能会在下一次政策会议上讨论这两个问题。而且，他们希望如果这样观望到9月份，投资者的担心会被更多印证美国经济正在接近“逃离速度”的积极数据所抵消。

    如果这个的愿望成为现实，它也会推动未来政策走向的演进(这是美联储高度实验性政策立场的另一项复杂构成因素)。因此，美联储希望能提升循序渐进地退出实验性政策的概率。

    等到9月份时，我们或许还能更清楚地知道，谁将接替本•伯南克掌管这个全球实力最强大的央行。投资者不应过度关注关于下届美联储主席人选（萨默斯-耶伦）的报道，而要看重这个经济部门的政策延续性，因为它承担着美国经济的决策重任。

    所有这些使得下届美联储政策会议尤其重要和棘手。而且，似乎从9月份起，不确定性将开始慢慢消除。

    大家记得欧洲吗？欧洲各项重要的经济和金融决定——不管是国家层面，还是地区层面的——事实上都已暂缓，静待9月份德国大选的结果。

    和美国一样，大西洋对岸的执行焦点是避免任何可能导致触礁的事情。结果，各国和欧元区层面都推迟了行动。

    因此，让我们暂且享受这段时期的平静吧。让我们期待随后的事态发展将会降低(而不是放大)倒退的风险。（财富中文网）

    穆罕默德•艾尔-俄莱恩是太平洋投资管理公司的首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。   

    After the discomforting volatility of May and June, the Federal Reserve opted today for market tranquility. As a result, two (if not three) consequential decisions are now pushed to September -- raising the question of whether the current pursuit of market calm will develop deeper roots in the interim or, instead, come at the cost of greater instability down the road.

    Here are the three main things that the Fed told us this afternoon at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting: The U.S. economy continues to improve, though at a moderate pace with unemployment still too high; given the continued need for a "highly accommodative stance of monetary policy," central bankers expect to keep policy interest rates low for a long time; and the economic outlook remains uncertain, including the balance between inflation and disinflation.

    More significant is what central bankers decided not to address this time around. Two elements stand out here: They refrained from providing additional information on their inclination to "taper" Fed purchases of market securities; and they abstained from significantly evolving their forward policy guidance.

    It is understandable that the Fed decided to hold back on these issues.

    The intense market dislocations that followed the May/June mentions of Fed tapering suggest that investors were yet to be sufficiently convinced on the prospects for an orderly handoff from "assisted" growth to "genuine" growth. As such, a lessening of Fed support for the economy was viewed as both premature and disruptive.

    It is highly probable that the two issues will be addressed by Fed officials at their next policy meeting. And, by waiting until September, they hope that investor apprehension will be countered by additional data releases confirming that the U.S. economy is approaching "escape velocity."

    Such an outcome, were it to materialize, would also facilitate the next evolution of the forward guidance strategy (the other particularly complex component of the institution's highly experimental policy stance). As such, the Fed hopes to enhance the probability of an orderly and gradual reduction in the institution's experimental policies.

    In September we may also have greater clarity on who will succeed Ben Bernanke at the helm of the world's most powerful central bank. Accordingly, rather than be mesmerized by the Summers-Yellen media circus, investors could have a better handle on policy continuity at the one economic institution that has stepped up to its policymaking responsibilities in the U.S.

    All this makes the next Fed policy meeting a particularly important and tricky one. And it is not as if September was uncertainty-light to begin with.

    Remember Europe? Virtually every key economic and financial decision there -- whether national or regional -- has been put on hold awaiting the outcome of German elections in September.

    As with the U.S., the operational focus on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is on avoiding anything that could rock the boat. And, again, the result is to postpone important national and eurozone-wide initiatives.

    So, let's enjoy this period of tranquility. And let's hope that subsequent developments end up minimizing, rather than amplifying, the risk of a backdraft.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.