科技蓝筹股缘何集体疲软

    虽然企业的季度收益一贯难以预测，但是本月的科技板块还是让人吃了一惊。上个月科技巨头扎堆发布收益报告，我们发现其中大多数公司的收益都低于投资者和分析师的预期。

    微软（Microsoft）、谷歌（Google）、eBay、英特尔（Intel）和SAP的净收入都令人失望。IBM以及6月底公布了收益数据的甲骨文（Oracle）等公司虽然勉强达到或超过了预期收益，但却也没有达到预期的增长率。说科技界大多数公司正在混日子也不为过。

    导致科技界一蹶不振的原因并不是只有宏观经济不景气这一个因素。当然，美国经济和全球经济今年的增长率的确低于预期，但这并不能解释为什么科技行业比其它行业更低迷。比如说消费和金融企业的收益都远远高于预期，但为什么标普500的IT板块的收益面如此令人失望呢？

    事实上，华尔街给很多市值高、价值低的股票设定的门槛很低。但即使如此，很多科技企业还是难以迈过这个门槛。比如英特尔的股价比分析师的预期只低了差不多1美分，而微软的股价则相差每股9美分。华尔街给亚马逊公司（Amazon）定的标准是每股净收益5美分，而它却净亏损了2美分。

    许多长期作为行业领头羊的大公司都发布了低于预期的收益报告，它们所处的行业不是正在接近衰退，就是已经处于衰退之中了。值得注意的是，PC市场需求下降对微软和英特尔的收益造成了巨大的打击，因为这两家公司历来是PC软件和和处理器领域的霸主。

    当然也有一些值得注意的亮点。尽管对蓝筹股来说，这是一个非常惨淡的月份，但是我们也发现了一些值得投资者们庆幸的事，在失望中找到了一些希望。比如雅虎（Yahoo）的每股收益超出了预期5美分，苹果（Apple）的每股收益为15美分，超过了预期的7.47美分。最令人预料不到的是，Facebook的每股收益达到19美分，比业界的普遍预期超出了5美分。

    这三家公司现在都在经历某种转型。雅虎（Yahoo）已经出现了从多年的沉沦中翻身的迹象。不过虽然它的收益超出了预期，但喜事背后也不乏隐忧。雅虎的收益还是比去年同期下降了7%，而且本季度它的利润增加额大部分来自雅虎控股的阿里巴巴（Alibaba）和雅虎日本。

    对于苹果公司来说，与其说它正在转型，不如说它正在进行价值投资。几年前，苹果的市盈率大概在20以上的区间徘徊。而就在苹果本月公布当季收益的前一天，它的市盈率已经跌到了10以下。苹果本季度的收益表明，它仍然可以通过现有产品吸引利润，同时它可以利用这段时间开发未来的产品，以便在未来产生净增长。

    Facebook是本月真正的复活健将，它的表现一扫之前很多投资者的疑虑，证明自己有能力通过移动平台挣钱。Facebook的移动用户正在增长，同时它的移动收入也在日益增加。现在移动业务占Facebook总体广告收益的比重已经高达41%。光是移动广告收入一项就比上一季度增长了75%。

    Even by the typically unpredictable nature of quarterly earnings, the technology sector had more than its share of surprises this month. As tech giant after tech giant lined up to report their earnings this month, most of them fell short of investor and analyst expectations.

    Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), eBay (EBAY), Intel (INTC), and SAP (SAP): Each one disappointed in net income. Others, like IBM (IBM) and Oracle (ORCL) (which posted earnings in late June), met or beat earnings numbers but fell shy of expectations on revenue growth. At best, things are just muddling along for most of the tech world.

    It's not just the broader economy holding tech back. True, the economy is growing slower than expected this year in the U.S. and in the world at large, but that doesn't explain why big tech disappointed more than other industries. Why, for example, the S&P 500's info tech sector was such a disappointment on the earnings front, while consumer and financial companies saw much better-than-expected earnings.

    The unpleasant truth for tech investors is that a lot of big-cap, low-value stocks are having trouble jumping over the modest bar Wall Street has set for them. Some, like Intel, fell a mere penny short of analysts' estimates. Others, like Microsoft, fell a more startling 9 cents a share. Still others, like Amazon, posted a net loss of 2 cents a share when Wall Street had been looking for a net profit of 5 cents a share.

    Many of the less-then-spectacular earnings reports came from companies that are longtime leaders of industries that are approaching or already in decline. Notably, the slowdown in demand for PCs took a substantial toll on the earnings of both Microsoft and Intel, long the leading respective makers of software and processors for desktops and laptops.

    There were notable bright spots. Even thought it was a blue quarter for the blue chips, investors found a few exceptions to celebrate, positive surprises among the field of disappointments. Yahoo (YHOO) beat estimates by 5 cents a share. Apple (AAPL)'s earnings came in 15 cents ahead of estimates at $7.47 a share. Most unexpected, Facebook's (FB) 19 cents a share earnings were 5 cents ahead of the consensus.

    All three of those companies are in the midst of turnarounds of different kinds. Yahoo is showing signs of pulling out of a slump that has lasted for years. Despite the earnings beat, the news wasn't all positive. The company's revenue declined 7% from the same quarter a year earlier, while the bulk of the profit surprise came from Yahoo's holdings in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan.

    Apple isn't in so much of a turnaround project as it is a value play. A few years ago, Apple's price-earnings ratio hovered well above 20. On the day before Apple's earnings, it dipped briefly below 10. Apple's earnings this quarter showed it can still extract profits from older offerings while it develops future products that may generate new growth.

    Facebook is this quarter's true comeback kid, showing it can do what many investors have doubted it could ever since its IPO: make money from mobile. Facebook's mobile users are growing, but so are its mobile revenues: They now make up 41% of Facebook's total ad revenue. In fact, mobile ad revenue grew 75% from the previous quarter alone.