冰岛再次成为欧洲的定时炸弹

    冰岛存疑的经济复苏势必将大白天下，而这可能会给欧洲其他国家带来严重后果。自2008年以来，这个小岛国一直得以规避全局性的经济崩盘，这在很大程度上是因为冰岛政府实施的资本管制使得其本币免于崩溃。与此同时，这个国家的“僵尸”银行都设法避免了彻底倒闭，因为它们的拖延战术使它们与债权人清算擦肩而过。

    但是，冰岛政府和银行在本地人口与外部元素之间架设的隔离墙终于开始坍塌。不幸的是，目前冰岛在自救方面已经心有余而力不足，它最终将不得不面对残酷现实。但更令市场担忧的是，新一轮冰岛货币危机在未来几个月内可能会对整个欧洲产生什么样的影响？毕竟，2008年冰岛轰然崩盘正是让欧洲陷入债务危机的动因，因为它暴露了欧洲地区银行系统的弱点。冰岛再度崩盘可以轻易重新点燃投资者的担忧情绪，从而让欧洲大陆再度陷入恐慌。

    经济繁荣时期的冰岛看上去不像一个主权国家，而更像是一只对冲基金。冰岛的三家主要银行过去在全球各地收购资产，最高峰的时候持有资产规模约为其年度国内生产总值（GDP）的10倍。它们之所以能够吸引到如此巨额的资金，主要是因为它们向以英国人和荷兰人为主的储户承诺丰厚的投资回报率——往往是这些海外储户所在国投资回报率的数倍。这些银行曾一度能兑现这个诺言，因为它们可以低价借入以某一货币计价的资金，然后以其他更高利率货币计价的资金借出。这还使得它们能够向本国居民借出数十亿冰岛克朗，助长了肆无忌惮的房地产泡沫。

    当然，这一切最终都轰然倒塌。这些推动银行利润飙升的套利交易消失，而大量的房产贷款也变为不良贷款。冰岛的经济开始崩溃，陷入一个货币贬值与恶性通胀主导的破坏性螺旋，险些使冰岛克朗兑其他货币汇率堕入万劫不复的境地，居民储蓄也差点一夜间变成废纸。

    冰岛政府迅速做出反应，在国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，简称：IMF）的帮助下，推出了资本控制措施限制资金出入境。此举保住了冰岛克朗币值。与此同时，IMF借给冰岛近50亿美元的稳定基金用于纾困。这笔资金可能听上去并不多，但它实际上已经超过冰岛GDP的三分之一。

    现在冰岛经济似乎已经出现反弹，增长速度超过了大部分其他欧洲国家。失业率也从2009年的峰值8%大幅下降到如今的4%左右。与此同时，国内消费者信心也与日俱增，而旅游业也出现不断增长的势头。旅游业是冰岛两大产业之一，另一大产业是渔业。所有的一切似乎表明，冰岛已经复苏，至少大多数经济学家乃至IMF都这么认为。

    The inevitable unmasking of Iceland's dubious economic recovery could have severe consequences for the rest of Europe. Since 2008, the small island nation has been able to avoid an all-out economic meltdown thanks largely to government-imposed capital controls that have kept its currency from imploding. At the same time, the nation's zombie banks have managed to avoid total collapse thanks to delay tactics that have allowed them to avoid settling with their creditors.

    But the walls the government and its banks erected to shield its population from the outside elements have finally started to crumble. Unfortunately, there is not much Iceland can do to save itself at this point; it will need to face the music eventually. The bigger concern is what impact another Icelandic currency crisis could have on Europe in the months ahead. After all, Iceland's spectacular collapse in 2008 helped set the European debt crisis in motion as it exposed weaknesses in the region's banking system. Another Icelandic meltdown could easily reignite investor fears, leading to yet another panic on the continent.

    During the boom years Iceland was run more like a hedge fund than a sovereign nation. Its three main banks accumulated assets from around the globe that at its height equaled around 10 times the nation's total annual economic output, or GDP. They were able to attract this enormous amount of capital by promising depositors, mostly in the U.K. and the Netherlands, returns on their cash that were multiples of what they could receive back home. For a time, the banks were able to deliver on their promises as they borrowed cheaply in one currency and lent in others that carried higher interest rates. This allowed them to lend billions of Icelandic Krona to their own population, fueling a property bubble of unmitigated proportion.

    Eventually, of course, it all came crashing down. The carry trade that fueled bank profits disappeared, and a great deal of those property loans turned sour. Iceland's economy started to crash, falling into a destructive devaluation-inflation led spiral that threatened to obliterate the value of the Icelandic Krona relative to other currencies and wipe out the savings of its citizens overnight.

    The Icelandic government responded quickly, and with the help of the International Monetary Fund, introduced capital controls to restrict the flow of money in and out of the country. This preserved the value of its currency. At the same time, the IMF lent Iceland nearly $5 billion to stabilize itself. That may not seem like a lot of money, but it is actually equal to more than a third of Iceland's GDP.

    Iceland's economy appears as if it has rebounded, growing faster than most of its European cousins. Unemployment has fallen sharply from a peak of 8% in 2009 to around half that today. At the same time, consumer confidence in the country is growing, as is tourism, which is one of the two major industries in Iceland, the other being fishing. All in all it seems that Iceland has recovered, at least that is what most economists and even the IMF say.