不宜炒作欧洲复苏题材

    以欧洲经济强劲复苏为题材进行炒作的投资者可能需要重新考虑一下的策略。

    工业产值出人意料地大幅下跌，再加上失业率居高不下，表明欧洲经济尚未摆脱困境。各个国家和整个欧盟的政策都欠妥，政府也缺乏领导力，这些依然影响着欧洲大陆再度崛起的能力。从本质上讲，欧洲的问题事关生死，需要各级政府做出果断而彻底的改变，以确保经济实现有力而持久的反弹。除非欧洲领导人愿意通过必要、但艰难的调整来让局势恢复正常，否则欧洲经济将继续滑坡。

    华尔街和伦敦方面对欧洲的看法发生了巨大变化。今年第二季度欧洲经济稍有起色，此后，基金经理已将数十亿美元、英镑和欧元投入到了欧洲市场。他们盼望着欧洲经济能像有些人所相信的那样发生重大转折，从而让他们获利。

    情况确实如此。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的研究结果显示，以养老基金和共同基金为首的美国投资者今年上半年共向欧洲股市投入了约650亿美元（4004亿元人民币）资金，达到36年来的最高水平。

    当然，这些资金流入欧洲并不都是因为投资者对欧洲经济的增长前景充满期待。部分资金来自于那些慌忙从新兴市场撤资的基金经理。今年新兴市场的表现一直不那么火爆，这些基金经理又把资金转移到了更为成熟的市场。

    但不管怎样，大量主动进入欧洲的资金都相信欧洲市场将出现一波重大行情。五年前的9月份，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭，但美国股市在短短六个月后就急剧反弹，许多错失了这次良机的投资经理至今仍然在深深自责。在那段黑暗的日子里，有些基金冒险将大笔资金投入美国金融板块。随后两年中，美国政府向美国银行体系注入了巨额资金，这些基金因此而赚得盆满钵满。美国经济复苏的速度远远超过许多人的预期，也超过了传统经济指标所体现的水平。企业开始大量盈利后，这些经济指标在很长一段时间里还处于低迷状态。

    由于恐惧而错过重大行情很难让人接受。毕竟，就像人们常说的那样，“不入虎穴焉得虎子”。对吧？考虑到今年有这么多的资金流入欧洲，人们可能会认为这样做万无一失——但情况当然并非如此。有些人相信欧元区17国正在全面复苏，而实际上这种观点看上去越来越像一个伪命题。

    上周公布的欧元区7月份工业产值环比下跌了1.5%，让欧洲市场普遍倒吸了一口凉气。之前人们普遍预期7月份工业产值将和6月份持平，也就是说大家都错了，而且错的离谱。

    Investors betting on a strong economic recovery in Europe may need to rethink their strategy.

    Steep and surprising declines in industrial production, along with continued high unemployment, show that the continent's economy is still stuck in the mud. Bad policy and a lack of leadership on both the national and EU level, continues to harm the continent's ability to get back up on its feet. Europe's troubles are existential in nature and require bold and sweeping changes at all levels of government to ensure a strong and lasting economic recovery. Until Europe's leaders are willing to make the tough changes necessary to get things back up and running properly, the continent's economy will continue to degrade.

    There has been a sharp change of sentiment on Wall Street and in the City of London towards Europe. Ever since the continent showed a smidgen of positive economic growth in the second quarter of the year, money managers have been pouring billions of dollars, pounds and euros into European investments on the hopes of cashing in on what some believe could be a major economic turnaround.

    Indeed, investors in the U.S., led by major pension and mutual funds, have invested some $65 billion in European equities during the first half of the year, the highest such dollar amount in 36 years, according to research from Goldman Sachs.

    To be sure, not all that money has flowed into Europe because investors are keen on the continent's growth prospects. Some of it has come from managers who have been frantically pulling their cash out of emerging market investments, which haven't done so hot this year, and dumping it in more mature markets.

    Nevertheless, a great deal of that cash has moved into Europe intentionally on the belief that the markets there are set for a major rally. Many portfolio managers are still kicking themselves for missing the sharp recovery in U.S. equities that took place just six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers five years ago this month. Those funds that took the risk and bet big on U.S. financial stocks during those dark days reaped massive returns over the next two years as the U.S. government shoveled tons of cash into its banking system. The U.S. economy recovered far faster than many had anticipated and outpaced traditional economic indicators that remained sour well after companies started pumping out strong profits.

    It is tough missing out on a major rally because of fear. After all, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the bold," right? Given the amount of money that has flowed into the continent this year one would think that it was a sure bet -- but, of course, it isn't. Indeed, the economic recovery that some believe is taking place across the 17-member eurozone is looking more and more like a sham.

    Last week, European markets collectively gasped in horror when it was revealed that industrial production across the eurozone for July fell 1.5% compared to the previous month. The consensus was for a flat number, meaning that the consensus was off -- way off.