IPO双城记

    今年秋天，克莱斯勒（Chrysler）和Twitter这两家具有代表性的公司将同时登上华尔街舞台。虽然分属完全不同的时代和行业，但这两家公司的IPO都有可能大获成功，而这要归功于旺盛的需求和不那么持久的记忆力。

    过去约一年时间里，本行业其他公司的首发均表现强劲，整个IPO市场也状态良好，这将让克莱斯勒和Twitter受益。

    IPO投资顾问机构复兴资本（Renaissance Capital）负责人凯思琳•史密斯说：“不论欧洲或者美联储在压缩资产购买规模方面是否存在不确定性，起决定作用的都是IPO市场能否带来正回报——目前这个市场的回报率就高于零。首发带来的高回报是关键因素。”这家公司的数据表明，一些近期上市的股票上涨了50%，所有新股的平均涨幅也超过了25%。

    美国IPO市场可能正在向2007年的水平靠拢。等待上市的公司约有110家，分别来自生物、科技和消费品行业；这还不包括大约75家像Twitter一样借助《创业企业扶助法》（JOBS Act）实现首发的公司。

    密歇根大学（University of Michigan）商学院教授埃里克•戈登认为：“除非受到外部冲击，否则今年秋天的IPO市场很可能走势强劲。市场资金充足，Facebook和社交游戏公司Zynga首发后表现惨淡所带来的心理阴影正在消散。”

    IPO研究公司负责人约瑟夫•舒斯特指出，风险偏好增强让IPO市场受益。舒斯特的公司管理着指数型基金The First Trust U.S.IPO Fund ETF，它所追踪的指数囊括了100只最近上市的股票。今年初以来，这只基金上涨了33.4%，而投资研究公司晨星（Morningstar）跟踪的小型增长基金以及中型基金的涨幅分别为30.2%和24-25%。

    IPO市场的一部分动力来自规模较小的IPO，这些公司按照《2012年创业企业扶助法》的规定“秘密”进行了简化注册。这个法案规定，年收入低于10亿美元（61.5亿元人民币）的公司可以在保密状态下提交上市申请文件。Latham & Watkins律师事务所在美国证交会（SEC）网站上发表的分析报告显示，在符合这项标准的公司中，约有三分之二的公司采用了这样的方式。这项法案还为增长较快的小型公司提供了其他便利，比如只需要披露之前两年的审计后财务数据，而不是通常所要求的三年。这份分析报告还指出，这些小型企业中，科技公司占了一半左右，另外还有大量能源、医疗保健和房地产公司。其中，年收入不超过2.5亿美元（15.38亿元人民币）的公司约占85%。

    复兴资本指出，今年第二季度，IPO市场的活跃程度达到了金融危机以来的最高点。到今年8月中旬，美国公司的IPO规模已经超过了去年全年的水平。

    复兴资本的IPO数据显示，整体来看，科技公司、快餐连锁企业Noodles and Co.以及生鲜食品连锁店经营商Sprouts Farmers Market上市首日的回报率最高。

    凯思琳•史密斯指出，大多数投资者都不会把Twitter作为克莱斯勒的比较对象，他们会选择过去两年上市的同类汽车公司，比如2011年11月上市的汽车零部件供应商Delphi Automotive和通用汽车公司（GM）。今年初以来，这两家公司的股价分别上涨了50%和27%。

    人们会拿来和Twitter进行对比的将是上市以来上涨了17%的Facebook以及商务社交网站LinkedIn，后者2011年5月上市，目前股价涨幅为455%。LinkedIn上市当天上涨了109.4%，是所有IPO中首日涨幅最大的公司之一。

    Two iconic companies will share the Wall Street stage as they go public this fall, and despite coming from vastly different eras and industries, both could end up with strong showings in their IPOs, thanks to a healthy appetite and short memories.

    Chrysler and Twitter both will benefit from the strength of other initial stock offerings in their sectors over the last year or so and the overall IPO market's strength.

    "Whether there is uncertainty in Europe or Fed tapering, all that matters is whether returns are positive in the IPO market -- and they are now. Strong post-IPO returns are the key factor," says Kathleen R. Smith, a principal with IPO investment advisor Renaissance Capital. The firm's data shows some recent IPOs are up 50%, with the average above 25%.

    The U.S. IPO market may be bouncing back to levels last seen in 2007, with a stream of about 110 offerings lined up in biotech, technology, and consumer goods. That doesn't count the 75 or so deals like Twitter that will use the JOBS Act to get into the public market.

    "Barring an external shock, the IPO market is likely to be strong this fall. There's plenty of money around and the specter of the Facebook (FB) and Zynga (ZNGA) IPO debacles is fading," says Erik Gordon, a business professor at University of Michigan.

    The IPO market is benefiting from an increased appetite for risk, says Josef Schuster, who heads an IPO research firm that manages an index fund based on 100 recent IPOs. The First Trust U.S.IPO Fund ETF (FPX) is up 33.4% so far this year, vs. 30.2% for small growth funds tracked by Morningstar and 24% to 25% growth for mid-sized funds.

    Some of the market is fueled by the smaller IPOs coming out under streamlined and "secret" share registration allowed under the JOBS Act of 2012. Under the JOBS Act, companies with less than $1 billion in revenues are allowed to submit their going-public paperwork confidentially, an approach used by about two-thirds of eligible companies, according to a Latham & Watkins analysis posted on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission website. The law includes other accommodations for smaller faster growing companies, such as only disclosing two years of audited financial results, instead of three years that's generally required. About half of them are technology companies, with energy, health care, and real estate also plentiful, Latham reported. Some 85% of them had revenue of $250 million or less.

    The second quarter was the most active one for IPOs since the financial crisis, and by mid-August, the total U.S. IPOs had already exceeded the 2012 total, Renaissance Capital reported.

    Overall, tech firms -- along with Noodles and Co. (NDLS) and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), a natural grocery store chain -- have shown the biggest first-day returns this year, according to Renaissance Capital's IPO data.

    Most investors will compare Chrysler not to Twitter but to it its peers in the auto sector that went public in the last two years, says Renaissance's Smith. Those are supplier Delphi Automotive (DLPH), which went public in November 2011 and whose shares up up 50% year to date, and GM (GM), whose shares are up 27% year to date.

    Twitter will be measured against Facebook, whose stock is up 17% from its starting gate, and LinkedIn, which is up 455% since its debut in May 2011. LinkedIn (LNKD) had one of the biggest first-day bounces of all IPOs, a 109.4% gain..