中国为什么不会插手美国债务上限之争

    眼看最后期限迫近，美国国会却迟迟不能决定是提高政府借贷上限，还是去冒违约的风险。在这种情况下，本周中国政府敦促美方迅速采取行动，同时确保中国对美投资的安全。

    中国是世界第二大经济体，它向美国传递这样的信息并不让人感到意外。正如中国财政部副部长朱光耀周一所言，中国是美国最大的海外债权人。

    中国的外汇储备规模居全球首位，部分原因是中国政府通过控制人民币汇率来鼓励出口。虽然没有公布具体数字，但中国用了很大一部分外汇储备来购买美国政府债券。截至今年7月份，中国持有美国国债1.27万亿美元（7.80万亿元人民币），超过世界上其他任何国家。日本紧随其后，所持美国国债数量为1.135万亿美元（6.97万亿元人民币）。

    德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）认为，倘若有哪个国家应该担心美国政府可能违约，那就是中国。德银将中国列为美国第三大债券持有人，仅次于领取社保的美国民众和美联储（U.S. Federal Reserve）。

    朱光耀称：“关于债务上限问题，中方要求美方采取切实有效的措施来防止美国国债违约。”

    考虑到中国在美国国债中所占的比重，可以认为中国希望打破美国政府债务上限所引发的僵局。从理论上讲，中国政府可以用大量抛售美国国债，进而可能造成后者价格暴跌来威胁美国。但这是个疯狂的想法，没有人会真的支持这样做——至少不会认真地或公开地进行支持，尤其是中国。

    针对美国债务上限问题，各方都发出了如同末日预言般的警告。其中，中国的表态相对平和，而且类似于2011年7月，也就是上次美国因国会僵局而濒临违约险境时中国官方的论调。当时民主、共和两党争执不下，最终造成标普（Standard & Poor's）70年来首次下调美国政府的3A信用评级。

    据新华社（Xinhua）报道，朱光耀在周一的发言中回顾了2011年美国评级遭到下调时的情况。他表示，希望美方吸取历史教训，认识到作为全球第一大经济体和世界储备货币发行国所应承担的责任。

    即使有人盼望中国采取干预措施，中国政府也可能得不偿失。目前的局势很微妙，而中国则会避免过度插手美国政府自己的事务，原因如下：

    原因之一是中国讨厌美国对自己的内政指手画脚，而这也让中国更不愿意插手美国的政策。美国智囊机构布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）访问研究员孙云（音译）指出，随着民主、共和两党谈判的进行，选择支持哪一方会让中国处于困难境地。更有可能的是，中方可能将两党争执不休视为一个民主政府的特征——2011年，时任美国国务卿的希拉里•克林顿就曾向中国政府做出过这样的解释。

    As Congress drags its feet against a looming deadline to increase the nation's borrowing limit or risk default, China urged Washington this week to act quickly and ensure the safety of its U.S. investments.

    The message from the world's second-largest economy isn't surprising. As Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao noted on Monday, China is the largest foreign creditor to the U.S.

    The country has the world's largest stockpile of foreign-exchange reserves, partly due to its efforts to encourage exports by holding down the value of its currency, the yuan. China doesn't disclose its holdings, but a chunk of its foreign reserves is invested in U.S. government debt; as of July, the country held $1.27 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. That's more than any country, followed by Japan, which holds $1.135 trillion.

    If anyone should worry about a possible default, it's the Chinese, according to Deutsche Bank. It ranked China third as having the largest holdings of U.S. debt next to recipients of U.S. social security and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    "On the question of the debt ceiling, the Chinese side feels the U.S. needs to take realistic and resolute steps to ensure against default on the national debt," Zhu said.

    Given China's stake, it's reasonable to think the country is positioned to break the debt-ceiling impasse. Theoretically, China could threaten a large sell-off that could potentially send bond prices into free fall. But that's a crazy idea that nobody is actually supporting -- at least not seriously nor publicly, especially not China.

    Of all the apocalyptic debt ceiling warnings, China's has been relatively muted. It's similar to the tone officials set in July 2011, the last time a stalled Congress pushed the U.S. to the edge of default. The fight eventually led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U.S. government's AAA credit rating for the first time in 70 years.

    On Monday, Zhu recalled the 2011 downgrade, saying he hoped the U.S. would take a lesson from history and realize its responsibilities as both the world's largest economy and holder of the global reserve currency, according to Xinhua.

    Even if some expect China to intervene, officials likely have more to lose than gain. It's a tricky situation, and China will stay away from meddling too deeply in Washington's problems for a few reasons:

    For one, just as China hates when America criticizes its domestic policies, it makes China more reluctant to intervene in U.S. policies. More than that, choosing which party to side with could put China in a tough spot with negotiations down the road, says Yun Sun, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. If anything, the Chinese likely view the political wrangling in Washington as symptomatic of a Democratic government, as then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rationalized it to China in 2011.