IMF总裁谈美国债务危机：权宜之计有后患

    对于近来已造成美国政府关闭15天的这场政治混战，如今看来最可能的结果是对美债上限进行短期调整。但国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德周二表示，即便美国国会能批准调高美债上限，也丝毫不能打消外界对美国经济领导地位的质疑。

    拉加德警告称，如果采取权益之计，将来美国国会终将“重头再来”。再过两天美国就将丧失偿还债务能力，美国国会看起来可能很快就会达成一致，暂时让美国政府重新开门，并将借款授权至少再延续几个月。拉加德表示，这将不可避免地“重新点燃(几周来困扰全球政策制定者的)不安、紧张与焦虑的情绪”。

    拉加德是周二晚间在华盛顿出席《财富》（Fortune）最具影响力女性峰会时发表上述讲话的。与此同时，华盛顿僵局毫无缓解迹象。她警告称，如果议员们找不到一种避免突破债务上限的方法，可能触发全球经济混乱。“这是可能发生的最严重事件，”拉加德说。“如果不处理，不解决这个问题，结果将非常非常严重——不只是对美国。”

    发表上述评论前，拉加德近期曾公开警告称，不能达成一致将“对整个世界造成巨大伤害”。其他全球领导人也应和了她的担忧。在上周末进行的IMF年度会议上，约300名财长和各大央行行长被召集在一起探讨如何增强经济复苏。但他们探讨的并不是全球经济脆弱的增长前景，“他们满脑子都是美国（债务上限之争）何时结束？”

    周二在谈到欧洲政治进程时，拉加德带来了一些令人振奋的消息。她说：“马里奥•德拉基（欧洲央行行长）的工作极其出色。”试图将18个国家用单一货币和单一的财政政策组合连结起来，难度可想而知。她大笑着说道：“这可不容易。”但她补充说：“他们不会因为缺乏勇气就放手不管。他们最终会鼓起勇气来应对这个挑战。这是一项巨大的挑战。”

    至于美国，拉加德支持双管齐下：“我简单概括为，一快一慢。”“一快”是指要迅速采取行动，控制必要的支出项目和通胀。“如果不采取任何行动，这些问题将会在2020年困扰美国经济，”拉加德表示。而“一慢”是指不要进行太大范围或太过激进的支出缩减，因为它可能会阻碍经济复苏。

    拉加德表示，失业将越来越成为一个关键性的问题。美国的状况自此次危机以来已有显著改善。失业率已经从10%下降到了7.3%。但增长仍旧脆弱，特别是对于一个快速转变的经济。“我认为，我们正在面临巨大转变，”她说，未来“（美国人）最能够充分就业。否则，我们将不仅仅面对临经济问题，还将面对社会问题。”

    拉加德是八国集团（G8）成员国中的首位女性财长，并于2011年成为IMF首位女性领导人。她曾经表示不希望在公司董事会中为女性设置配额，但后来她改变这个立场。她说：“你看，这种做法起到了效果。”但她同时也表示：“配额不应成为长期存在，因为我们可以做得比这更好。”

    在推动女性政策大步发展前，拉加德的经历也很多姿多彩。她曾经在美国恶魔岛（Alcatraz Island）监狱短暂地担任过一段时间的法国游客导游，曾经被法国一所精英学校两度拒绝(一次是因为她不够用心：“那年我恋爱了”,还有一次是因为她错过了截止日期)，她还是一位受过良好训练的花样游泳运动员。游泳那段日子给她带来的启示是：“咬紧牙关，面露微笑。”

    这个技巧在近年的政治环境中无疑非常管用。（财富中文网）   

    A short-term debt-ceiling fix now appears to be the most likely outcome of the prolonged political mud fight that has shut down the government for the last 15 days. But even if lawmakers do manage to pass an extension, it will do little to resolve the larger questions over U.S. economic leadership, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Tuesday.

    Lagarde warned that a stopgap measure would bring lawmakers "back to the drawing board once again." With only two more days to go before the nation loses the ability to manage its debts, Congress appears to be lurching toward a deal that would temporarily reopen the government and extend the country's borrowing authority for at least a few more months. That, Lagarde said, will inevitably "reactivate the same sort of trepidation and anxiety and worry" that has gripped world policy makers for weeks already.

    Lagarde spoke at Fortune's Most Powerful Women Summit in D.C. on Tuesday night against a backdrop of so-far unyielding partisan gridlock in Washington. She warned that if lawmakers cannot find a way to avoid a debt-ceiling breach, it could trigger global economic chaos. "It's the most serious thing that could happen," Lagarde said. "If it's not addressed, if it's not tackled, it will be very, very damaging – not only for the U.S."

    Lagarde's comments come after her recent public warnings that failure to reach a deal would wreak "massive disruption the world over." Other world leaders have echoed her concerns. During the IMF's annual meetings this weekend some 300 ministers of finance and governors of major central banks convened to talk about how to bolster the recovery. But instead of talking about the global economy's fragile growth prospects, "The only thing that was on their mind was, 'When is this [debt-ceiling fight] going to end?'"

    Lagarde Tuesday had more cheerful things to say about the European political process. "Mario Draghi [president of the European Central Bank] has done an extraordinary job," she said. Trying to unite 18 countries with a single currency and a single set of fiscal policies, is incredibly difficult: "It's a job," she cracked. But she added, "they're not going to let it drop like that because of lack of courage. The courage will eventually be there to respond to the challenge. It's a huge challenge."

    As for the U.S., Lagarde espouses a two-pronged approach: "I summarize it for my simple mind as, slow down but hurry up." "Hurry up" by taking measures quickly to rein in entitlement spending and inflation. Those issues "will come to haunt the economy in 2020 if nothing is done before," Lagarde said. And "slow down" by not making any cuts so sweeping or drastic that they would thwart a recovery.

    Unemployment will be an increasingly critical issue, Lagarde said. There has been marked progress in the U.S. since the crisis. The unemployment rate has fallen from 10% to 7.3%. But gains are still fragile, particularly in a rapidly changing economy. "I think we are facing huge transitions," she said. Going forward, "[Americans] had better have jobs, otherwise we're not just facing economic problems, we'll be facing social problems."

    Lagarde was the first woman appointed finance minister in a G8 country, and became the first female chief of the IMF in 2011. She has spoken previously about not wanting quotas for women on corporate boards, though she later reversed her stance. "Look it's working," she said. But she added that "quotas should not be a long-lasting feature because we can do better than that."

    Even before she was making strides for women in the policy world, Lagarde had a colorful history. She was briefly a guide for French tourists at Alcatraz Island prison, got turned down from an elite French school twice (once because she was distracted: "I was in love that year," and once because she missed the deadline), and she was an accomplished synchronized swimmer. The takeaway from her swimming days: "Grit your teeth and smile."

    In politics lately, it's a skill that has no doubt proved particularly useful.