科技公司IPO市场远未形成泡沫

    今年早些时候，我曾写过一篇文章，提到了今年第一季度萧条的科技公司IPO市场（四家公司募得2.21亿美元），预示着2013年将是科技公司上市非常惨淡的一年。结果证明我错了。其他人认为，对经济的担忧只是短时间内抑制了寻求上市的公司，今年下半年，IPO市场将收获大丰收，实情确实如此。

    据复兴资本（Renaissance Capital）统计，美国今年共有165家公司上市，比去年同期增加了45%。2013年还剩11周，至少从2007年以来，今年将是IPO市场最繁忙的一年。2007年共有213家公司上市。

    这些IPO中，约五分之一是科技公司——大多数都是基于软件的商业模式，首次上市交易时的市值低于30亿美元。而且，这些公司没有一家像Twitter或规模庞大的Facebook、团购网站Groupon或社交游戏Zynga等公司一样，属于家喻户晓的品牌。但凡知名度较高的股票都出现了增长——尤其是在各自移动业务的推动下——这也吸引了投资者对许多新上市科技公司的兴趣。

    2013年的IPO主要由中小型公司组成。其中最大的公司所募得的资金并不突出。数据虚拟化公司Tableau Software在五月份募得2.54亿美元。面向小企业的IT产品零售商CDW在六月份募得3.95亿美元。网络安全公司FireEye在上个月募得3.04亿美元。

    相比之下，其他行业规模最大的IPO成绩更加出色，比如从辉瑞制药（Pfizer）拆分的硕腾（Zoetis）以及能源公司Antero Resources分别募得22亿美元和16亿美元。而募得160亿美元的Facebook，规模之大在美国IPO历史上排在第三位。

    Tabeau的上市似乎是今年IPO市场的关键转折点。它最初申请发行720万股，定价23美元至26美元之间，最终共发行了820万股，每股价格为31美元。之后，这家公司的股票在五个月内上涨了115%。在Tableau之前，据复兴资本统计，2013年共有七家科技公司上市。而这七家公司的交易价格均低于发行价，其中收入管理软件公司Model N的交易价格比发行价下跌了39%。在Tableau上市之前，市场上唯一一家表现不错的科技公司是云软件公司Rally Software，自上市以来股价上涨了108%。

    在Tabelau之后，共有22家科技公司上市。除三家公司之外，其他公司股票均出现上涨。其中有四家公司的股价翻了一番以上，它们分别是：电子商务平台畅路销（ChannelAdvisor ）、项目管理软件制造商Textura、广告网络Rocketfuel 和FireEye。

    这些公司之所以能有如此抢眼的上市表现，原因各有不同。其中，Tableau表明，今年前半年深受经济不确定性的困扰，在这样的状况下，中型科技公司更受市场欢迎。Tableau公司是一家财务健全的增长型公司。还有一个原因是，Facebook和其他上市网络公司报告了第二季度的收入，表明软件与互联网股票进入了移动驱动增长时期。

    另外一个原因是，历史上，科技公司IPO会有一个蜜月期，这些公司的股票会上涨一段时间，几周之后会缓慢下跌（自八月初以来，今年30家进行IPO的科技公司共有12家进行了初次上市交易）。例如，基于云的企业软件公司Benefitfocus在上个月上市，每股股价为26.50美元，上市后第一周便上涨到55.87美元，上周跌至37.32美元。

    Earlier this year, I wrote that the sluggish tech IPO market in the first quarter of the year (four companies raising $221 million) presaged a bleak year for tech offerings in 2013. Boy, was I wrong about that. Others argued that economic concerns were temporarily holding back IPO candidates and that a bumper crop of them would emerge in the second half of the year, and this is indeed what has happened.

    According to Renaissance Capital, 165 companies have gone public on U.S. markets, an increase of 45% over the same period in 2012. We still have 11 weeks to go in 2013, and the year is shaping up to be the busiest for IPOs since at least 2007, when 213 companies went public.

    Nearly a fifth of those IPOs are tech companies -- most with software-based business models and all debuting with valuations below $3 billion. None of them are exactly household names like the upcoming Twitter IPO or past giants like Facebook (FB), Groupon (GRPN), or Zynga (ZNGA). But those better-known stocks are showing growth -- especially from their mobile business -- that are drawing interest into many of the new tech listings.

    The IPO class of 2013 is largely comprised of small or mid-sized companies. The biggest among them raised relatively modest amounts. Tableau Software (DATA), a data-visualization software company, raised $254 million in May. CDW (CDW), a reseller of IT products to small businesses, raised $395 million in June. And FireEye (FEYE), a network-security company, raised $304 million last month.

    Compare those to some of the biggest IPOs of the year in other industries, like Pfizer (PFE) spinoff Zoetis (ZTS) or energy company Antero Resources (AR), which raised $2.2 billion or $1.6 billion, respectively. Or Facebook's $16 billion in proceeds, the third-largest of any U.S. IPO.

    The debut of Tableau seems to mark a key turning point for IPOs this year. Tableau originally filed to sell 7.2 million shares between $23 and $26 and ended up offering 8.2 million shares at $31 a share. The stock has since risen 115% over the past five months.

    Before Tableau, according to Renaissance, seven tech companies had ventured out into the public market in 2013. All of them are trading below their offering price, as much as 39% down in the case of revenue-management software company Model N (MODN). The only pre-Tableau IPO to perform well in the market is Rally Software (RALY), a cloud software company that has seen it stock rise 108% since its offering.

    Since Tableau, 22 tech companies have gone public. Of those, all but three have seen their stock prices rise. Another four have seen their stock prices more than double: ecommerce platform ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), project management software maker Textura (TXTR), ad-network Rocketfuel and FireEye.

    There are a few reasons for that overall strong aftermarket performance. One is that Tableau, a financially healthy and growing company, showed that a mid-sized tech deal could receive a warm welcome amid the economic uncertainty that plagued the first half of the year. The other is that Facebook and other listed web companies reporting second-quarter earnings showed that software and Internet shares are entering a period of mobile-driven growth.

    Another reason may be that tech IPOs have historically enjoyed a honeymoon period when their stocks rise for several weeks before sinking down slowly (12 of the 30 tech IPOs this year have debuted since early August). For example, Benefitfocus (BNFT), a cloud-based enterprise software company, went public at $26.50 a share last month, then rose as high as $55.87 a share in its first week of trading before falling as low as $37.32 last week.