时候到了，欧洲银行业该瘦身了

    美国银行业经历了一个艰难的业绩报告期，但欧洲银行业的处境似乎更糟糕。从德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）到瑞银（UBS）再到荷兰合作银行（Rabobank），各种老问题和乏善可陈的表现似乎拖累了近乎所有综合性欧洲银行的收益。

    但欧洲银行的不良贷款问题更令人担忧。欧洲银行业不良贷款在过去的五年增长超过一倍，估计达1.2万亿欧元。这些银行曾希望利用未来盈利偿还债务，同时解决法律问题，但现实并非如此。时候到了，它们现在可能必须面对现实，真正开始变卖资产，以偿还债务并一劳永逸的清理资产负债表问题。

    欧洲最大的银行德意志银行本周早些时候震惊了市场，因为它公布了远低于分析师预期的业绩。在截至9月份的这一季度，德意志银行出乎意料地列支12亿欧元的诉讼费用拨备，导致它的净利润同比下滑了约94%，减少到4100万欧元，不足分析师预期的（4.3亿欧元）十分之一。

    在这方面，德意志银行远非个例。似乎每一家大型国际银行都面临着类似的问题，只不过严重程度各不一样。荷兰合作银行近期表示，它为参与伦敦银行间同业拆借利率（Libor）操纵案支付了约11亿美元的罚金。监管机构在这方面非常谨慎，正在敦促各大银行为未来的法律诉讼拨备必要的资金。瑞士监管机构已经责令瑞银在上一个季度提高诉讼拨备，尽管它已经就自身在伦敦银行同业拆借利率案中的相关法律责任达成了和解，并承诺支付约15亿美元的和解费。

    过去的几个季度，这些欧洲银行实际上已经在数年来首次开始下调法律诉讼拨备，因为许多银行家认为最糟糕的时刻已经过去。毕竟，从全球金融危机前夕到现在已经过去五年多了。如果未来出现任何法律问题，它们认为都可以用当季盈利支付。

    但不幸的是，他们的算盘打错了。不仅法律问题在继续侵蚀盈利，而且银行发现钱更难赚了。例如，德意志银行上个季度的整体收入下滑了10%，因为几个关键业务部门的经营业绩都不理想。这家银行庞大的固定收益交易部门的收入同比下降了约50%。

    这些银行在努力求生存的同时，还需要满足新的、更严格的资本储备要求。欧洲央行（European Central Bank）上周宣布，将对128家银行进行新的压力测试，看它们手头是否有必要的资金以应对新的金融危机。由于经营不善以及诉讼拨备，银行手头的现金已经减少。它们需要以某种方式提高股本，以满足欧洲的资本要求（要求银行随时有至少8%的资本在手）。

    欧元区的银行显然已经被逼到了墙角。欧洲央行将进行的压力测试预计比以往的更加严格，因此许多银行都将需要提振资本基础。雪上加霜的是，普华永道会计师事务所（PwC）的一份报告显示，欧元区银行账面上有约1.2万亿欧元的不良贷款。这意味着，这些资产很可能会要被冲减，进而迫使银行筹集更多的资本。

    银行有几种方法可以解决这个偿付能力方面的问题。它们可以削减放贷，从而囤积资本，但监管机构可能不会允许它们这么做。它们也可以出售更多的股票，但以这种方式发行股本就会稀释现有股东的权益，从而惹恼股东。陷入严重困境的银行也可以向各自政府寻求救助，但那会伤害银行的声誉，还会导致一大堆新的问题。

    Banks in the U.S. have had a tough earnings season, but their counterparts across the pond in Europe seem to be having an even harder one. From Deutsche Bank to UBS to Rabobank, it seems that old demons and lackluster performance have hit the purse of nearly every integrated European bank.

    But European banks have an even more worrisome problem in the form of nonperforming loans, which have more than doubled to an estimated 1.2 trillion euros in the last five years. And banks had hoped to pay off their commitments and square their legal woes with future earnings, but that hasn't gone very well. It may be time for them to finally face facts and start truly selling assets to cover their bills and clean up their balance sheets once and for all.

    Deutsche Bank (DB), Europe's largest bank, shocked the market earlier this week when it reported results that were well below analyst estimates. A surprise 1.2 billion euro provision for litigation charges in the quarter ending in September pushed the firm's net income down some 94% from the same time last year to 41 million euros. That was less than a tenth of the 430 million euros expected.

    And Deutsche Bank is far from alone here. It seems like every major international bank is facing similar issues -- to varying degrees of severity. Rabobank, the Dutch bank, recently said it paid some $1.1 billion for its role in manipulating Libor. Regulators aren't taking any chances here and are pushing banks to put aside the necessary cash to cover their future legal claims. Swiss regulators actually ordered UBS (UBS) to add to its litigation reserves last quarter even though it had already settled its Libor legal woes, promising to pay some $1.5 billion for its role in the worldwide scheme.

    In the last few quarters the banks had actually started to decrease their legal reserves for the first time in years as many had believed that the worst was behind them. After all, it had been well over five years since the lead-up to the financial crisis. If there were any future legal issues, they gathered they could simply pay for them using current earnings.

    Unfortunately it hasn't worked out that way. Not only have the legal issues continued to gnaw at earnings, the banks have had a hard time making money. For example, Deutsche took a 10% hit to its overall revenue in the last quarter thanks to poor operating performance in several key divisions. The firm's massive fixed income trading desk reported revenues that were down some 50% from the previous year.

    As the banks struggle to keep their head above water they will also be expected to meet new and stringent capital reserve requirements. The European Central Bank announced last week it would be conducting new stress tests on 128 banks to see if they have the necessary capital on hand to deal with another financial crisis. With diminished cash on hand due to the poor operations and even more stashed away in litigation reserves, the banks will need to somehow pump up their equity to meet the European capital requirements, which call for banks to have at least 8% of their capital on hand at all times.

    Banks in the eurozone have clearly been backed into a corner. The stress tests performed by the ECB are expected to be more stringent than the ones in the past, so many banks will need to shore up their capital base. This is made even more pressing given that the banks have some 1.2 trillion euros of nonperforming loans on their books, according to a report by PwC. That means that they will probably need to be written down, requiring the banks to raise even more capital.

    Banks have several ways to address this solvency issue. They could hoard capital by cutting back on lending, but regulators probably won't let them do that. They could sell more stock, but issuing equity in this manner dilutes current shareholders, making them very angry. Banks that are in real trouble could ask for assistance from their respective governments, but this really hurts the bank's reputation and adds a whole host of new problems.