欧洲经济好转之前还会进一步恶化

    降低利率并不足以长时间抵御欧洲面临的通缩威胁。上周四，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）出人意料地下调了欧元区再融资利率和边际贷款利率。这就像让感冒病人吃退烧药——也许能降低他的体温，但却无法让他痊愈。

    欧洲需要的是真正的经济增长。如果欧盟政府机构和经济实体的自信以及人们对欧元本身的信心不能恢复，这样的增长就不会到来。眼下，欧洲各国领导人基本上无法达成任何协议。有鉴于此，情况可能会首先变得更差，而不是好转。

    欧央行行长马里奥•德拉吉冷不防宣布将上述两种利率下调0.25个百分点，让市场吃了一惊。调整后，二者分别降至0.25%和0.5%，都属于极低的水平。此前，分析师认为，就算要降低利率，欧央行也只会在12月份，即公布最新经济预期后进行。

    但德拉吉觉得他再也不能袖手旁观。11月初，在他决定降息前公布了两项重要经济数据。首先是非常低的通胀率——9月份欧元区物价水平上涨了0.7%，远低于欧央行2%的目标值。随后是低迷的经济增长率——欧委会（European Commission）将2014年欧元区经济增速预期从1.2%下调到了1.1%。要知道，就在几个月前，欧委会还预测2014年欧元区经济将增长1.4%。

    第一个问题，也就是低通胀确实让央行官员感到害怕，因为这可能带来通缩，也就意味着商品和服务的价格可能下跌。也许大家觉得这是件好事，对吧？毕竟，欧洲的实际工资处于负增长状态（就是说人们的可支配收入正在减少），物价下跌可能是件好事，因为它有望促进消费。

    但经济学家对此有不同看法。他们担心通缩会促使个人和银行囤积现金，从而妨碍投资。利率下降到这么低的水平，经济学家认为银行和个人不会冒险把现金用于贷款或投资。原因是，他们会发现，只要把现金握在手里不花，就可以在购买力方面获得可预期的回报。这将导致流通中的现金减少，造成物价进一步下跌，从而形成恶性通缩循环。

    所有中央银行官员似乎都认为通缩对经济的破坏作用最大。因此，“通胀有利而必要”的理论成了现代货币政策的基础。这个理论认为，如果货币贬值，银行和个人就会更倾向于借贷和投资，以便保护手中资金的价值。

    为了消除通缩，央行官员一般都需要制造通胀。这可以通过降低利率来实现，就像欧央行所做的那样。但欧央行和美联储（Federal Reserve）都面临着这样一个问题——利率已经接近于零。随着利率更贴近零点，欧央行抵御通缩的能力就会减弱，最终会让欧央行陷入所谓的流动性陷阱。

    Slashing interest rates won't be enough to fend off Europe's deflationary demons for very long. The surprising move by the European Central Bank Thursday to decrease refinancing and marginal lending rates in the eurozone is the economic equivalent of giving Tylenol to a patient suffering from the flu -- it might lower the fever, but it's no cure.

    What Europe needs is bona fide economic growth, and that won't come until confidence returns to the political and economic institutions of the European Union, as well as to the euro itself. But with European leaders unable to agree on basically anything, things will probably get worse before it gets better.

    The markets were taken aback after ECB President Mario Draghi announced a surprising 25 basis point cut to both the refinancing and marginal lending rates in the eurozone. The move brought rates down to 0.25% and 0.5%, both extremely low. Analysts had expected any cut, if at all, would have come in December after the central bank issued its latest economic forecasts.

    But Draghi felt that he could no longer sit back and do nothing. His decision to lower rates was predicated on two major economic data points released in the last week. The first is very low inflation -- the eurozone experienced a 0.7% increase in prices last month, well below the central bank's target of 2%. The second is poor growth -- the European Commission lowered its 2014 economic growth forecast for the eurozone from 1.2% to 1.1%. Bear in mind that they were predicting 1.4% growth only a few months ago.

    The first issue, low inflation, really scares central bankers, as this could lead to deflation. This means prices for goods and services would fall. You might think that's a good thing, right? After all, since real wage growth in Europe is negative (meaning people are taking home less money), lower prices might be a good thing as it would encourage consumption.

    But economists see it differently. They worry that deflation would discourage investment as it would induce people and banks to hoard cash. With interest rates so low, they figure banks and people wouldn't risk lending or investing cash when they can see a measurable return in purchasing power by simply holding on to that cash and not spending it. This would decrease the amount of cash in circulation, causing prices to fall even further, leading to a destructive deflationary spiral.

    Every central banker seems convinced that deflation is the most destructive thing that could ever happen to an economy. As such, modern monetary policy is based on the theory that inflation is healthy and necessary. If the value of money is decreasing, the theory goes that banks and people would be more inclined to lend and invest in order to protect the value of their capital.

    In order to fight off deflation, a central banker needs to basically create inflation. This can be done by lowering rates, just as the ECB has done. But the ECB, like its counterpart in the U.S.,the Federal Reserve, has a problem -- interest rates are already close to 0%. As the rate closes in at zero, the effectiveness of the ECB's power to fight deflation wanes, eventually pushing the central bank into a so-called liquidity trap.