安倍经济学的缺陷：移民政策

    美国和世界其他国家都在密切关注日本。一年前，日本首相安倍晋三提出了所谓的“安倍经济学”，希望借助一系列激进政策，来结束长达二十年的经济衰退，实现经济振兴；如果日本经济出现好转，将提振全球经济。

    上周四，日本公布七至九月的经济增速大幅放缓，原因是新兴市场需求下跌和国内消费疲软。据政府公布，该季度日本国民生产总值（衡量一国生产的商品与服务最广泛的指标）增长速度为1.9%，而之前两个季度的增速分别为4.3%和3.8%。

    日本财务大臣麻生太郎在上周的国会上曾表示：“日本不能依赖出口。我们必须以国内需求带动增长。我们未能预料到欧洲的经济困境会持续如此长的时间，而中国的经济增长速度也从8%下降到7%。”

    日本周四公布的疲软的经济数据，并不代表安倍经济学没有效果，但这也突出了日本总体规划中缺失的一环：移民政策改革。

    在上周发布的一份报告中，标准普尔（Standard & Poor's）全球首席经济师保罗•希尔德表示，日本可以通过引进更多外国劳动力加快经济增长速度。多年来，日本人口在持续减少。2010年，日本总人口为1.289亿人，预计至2048年，日本人口将低于1亿人。然而，日本政府并不愿意更多外国人的涌入，安倍经济学中更是对移民政策改革方案只字未提。

    诚然，日本为结束通货紧缩采取了许多大胆的措施。物价持续下跌，使得工资水平停滞不前甚至有所下降，但越来越多的投资者相信，这种状况很快将有所好转。高盛资产管理公司（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）在今年10月份，对1,000位日本零售业投资者进行了调查，其中一半以上的受访者（56%）表示，他们预计通货紧缩很快将会结束，物价将适度上涨，而有21%的受访者担心通货膨胀过高的风险。

    日本的问题有更深层次的原因。日本人口出生率目前为每名妇女生育1.39名儿童，达到历史最低。工资水平多年停滞不前，使日本男性对另一半的吸引力下降，由于经济不确定性，结婚和生育的时间也被推迟。此外，养育孩子的成本和负担过高，尤其是在城市，公立日托中心严重不足。

    而这将导致适龄劳动人口的巨大缺口。根据安倍经济学，决策者们希望日本在未来十年能保持2%的年均增长速度。之前十年，日本的年均经济增长速度为0.8%。而希尔德认为，要想实现这一目标，日本必须解决劳动人口减少的问题。

    日本一直在努力提高人口出生率，但即使从现在开始人口出生率有所提高，也至少需要经过一代人之后，才能解决人口问题。希尔德表示，一个更快捷的办法是改革移民政策。

    移民会增加人口，而且移民更有可能生育更多孩子。允许更多外国人移民，还可以鼓励更多女性继续工作。这是困扰日本多年的问题，因为日本女性往往在职业发展与照顾家庭之间左右为难。希尔德表示，明智的移民政策将放松对托幼机构的劳动力限制，为职场女性创造更多便利条件。

    这种观点得到了许多人的支持，但在日本政界，这依然是一个非常敏感的问题。因为日本政客极力反对引进更多外国劳动力。但根据未来十年日本经济的发展情况，这个问题或许将变得不再那么敏感。（财富中文网）

    翻译：刘进龙/汪皓

    The U.S. and the rest of the world have been watching Japan closely. Nearly a year ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched what has been dubbed "Abenomics," an aggressive plan to revive its economy from a two-decades long slump; the hope is that if Japan turns around, it could, for the first in a long time, lift the global economy.

    On Thursday, Japan's economy slowed sharply in the three-month period ended September, as demand from emerging markets fell and consumption at home weakened. The country's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, compared with 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively, during the previous two quarters, the government said.

    "Japan cannot rely on exports. We have to pursue domestic demand-led growth," said Finance Minister Taro Aso during a parliamentary session last week. "We didn't expect economic woes in Europe to last for so long, while China's economy has also slowed down to a growth rate of 7% from 8%."

    Japan's weaker data on Thursday doesn't suggest Abenomics isn't working, but it does highlight what's missing in Japan's master plan: immigration reform.

    In a report released last week, Standard & Poor's global chief economist Paul Sheard said Japan could accelerate the pace of economic growth by letting more foreign workers in. Japan's population has been declining for years. It was at 128.9 million people in 2010 and is set to fall below the 100 million mark in 2048, but Japan has been reluctant to allow more foreigners in and there's hardly any mention of such plans under Abenomics.

    To be sure, Japan has made bold moves to end deflation. Years of falling prices have kept wages stagnant or declining, but more and more investors are now convinced that could soon turn around. According to an October survey of 1,000 Japanese retail investors by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, more than half of respondents (56%) said they expect deflation to end soon and prices to start rising moderately, while 21% worry about the risks of too much inflation.

    Japan's problems run deeper. Its birth rate, currently 1.39 children per woman, has sunk to record lows. Years of stagnant wages have made Japanese men less attractive to potential partners, and couples have delayed getting married and having children because of economic uncertainties. What's more, the costs and burden of parenthood are high, as there's also a big shortage of public day care centers, especially in cities.

    All this translates to a huge shortage of working-age people. Under Abenomics, policymakers hope the country would grow an average of 2% a year over the next decade, compared with an average of 0.8% a year over the previous decade. If that's really going to happen, Japan will need to tackle its declining workforce, Sheard says.

    Japan has been trying to raise its birth rate, but even if it successfully did that tomorrow, it will take at least a generation before it solves its demographic problems. A shortcut cure would be immigration reform, Sheard says.

    Immigrants grow the population, plus they are more likely to have more children. And allowing more foreigners in could also encourage more women to stay in their careers -- a problem that's plagued Japan for years as women struggle to pursue a career while raising a family. Sheard says a smart immigration policy would ease labor restrictions over childcare facilities, helping to make it easier for working women.

    Others have supported this idea, but it remains a deeply touchy topic for Japanese politicians who have opposed bringing in more foreign workers. But depending how Japan's economy fares over the next several years, that idea may not be so far-fetched.