特斯拉汽车天价股价新解

    特斯拉汽车公司（Tesla Motors）的价值为什么会达到令人震惊、难以置信、甚至有些不现实的149亿美元（914.86亿元人民币），人们众说纷纭。

    我也有我的看法。

    上个季度特斯拉汽车亏损了4亿美元（24.56亿元人民币），共售出S型轿车1.5万辆。这是这家公司的唯一产品，不过由于三辆S型轿车发生起火事故，联邦安全机构已经介入调查。

    人们经常用市盈率来衡量一只股票的价格。由于特斯拉汽车没有盈利——至少上个季度没有——因此无法计算它的市盈率。

    有人说，投资者追捧特斯拉汽车的原因是电动汽车早晚会流行起来，就像智能手机一样。也有人认为，一家大型汽车制造企业正打算收购特斯拉汽车，摘取电动汽车技术的果实，同时获得政府的碳排放额度——所有汽车厂商都需要这样的额度来抵消能耗较低车型所产生的影响。

    我认为特斯拉汽车的价值和史蒂夫•乔布斯留下的光环有很大关系，这和克里斯•安德森在《财富》（Fortune）杂志上发表的文章观点类似。乔布斯是硅谷的少年英才。他跟人联合创办了苹果公司（Apple），还在1980年带领公司实现了上市。考虑到股票分割因素，当时的发行价约为4美元。目前，苹果公司的股价约为515美元，而且一度逼近700美元。

    许多投资者仍在念叨，要是当初只买进苹果公司的股票，而且一直拿在手上，那得挣多少钱。

    众所周知，乔布斯脾气暴躁，这和另一位业界明星、特斯拉汽车创始人兼首席执行官埃隆•马斯克很像。很多很多人，包括我在内，都曾敦促乔布斯就Mac操作系统进行大范围授权，就像微软（Microsoft）就MS-DOS系统对外提供授权那样。如果他这样做了，苹果产品的克隆版本就会大行其道，就像个人电脑那样。

    就在乔布斯犹豫不决时，微软的操作系统成了行业标准。后来，乔布斯被迫离开了苹果公司，但这只是他以胜利者的姿态重返这家公司的序曲。乔布斯的眼光很适合苹果公司，由此产生的回报就是，现在苹果公司价值4630亿美元（28428.2亿元人民币），而微软的价值为3090亿美元（18972.6亿元人民币）。

    现在的马斯克和那时的乔布斯一样斗志昂扬。有些人认为电动汽车市场规模有限，要么质疑特斯拉汽车采用的电池技术，要么把联邦政府机构的安全调查挂在嘴边，马斯克从不向这些人低头。据报道，联邦机构正在调查的三起特斯拉S型轿车起火事故都是由于碰撞引起。

    马斯克已经在Twitter上以及其他场合回应说，许多车都会在发生交通事故后起火。情况确实如此，但截至目前还没有关于日产（Nissan）的Leaf电动汽车起火的报道，无论是在发生事故后，还是在其他情况下。日产公布的数据显示，截至9月份，聆风电动汽车在全球共售出了8.3万辆。

    从许多方面来看，马斯克已经成为科技领域中的第二个史蒂夫•乔布斯。他才华横溢，工作勤奋，勇于挑战传统，而且不会欣然接受别人的愚蠢（看看谁和穆斯克意见不一）。质疑乔布斯的投资者都错过了苹果公司股价飙升所带来的机会，他们可能把特斯拉汽车看成弥补这个疏忽的一条途径。

    现在买进特斯拉汽车的投资者有可能在今后电动汽车销量上升时，或者某家大型汽车厂商决定全面收购特斯拉汽车时套现，从而大赚一笔。

    我对乔布斯的看法是错的，他在计算机领域的眼光很正确。但对于穆斯克，我不知道该怎样判断，因为电动汽车一直销路不畅。但我确实知道，就目前的股价而言，特斯拉汽车的上升空间看来相当有限。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Theories abound as to how Tesla Motors could be worth a stunning, incredible, improbable $14.9 billion.

    I have my own.

    Tesla (TSLA) lost $400 million in its latest quarter, has sold a grand total of 15,000 Model S sedans, and is facing a federal investigation after three vehicle fires raised questions about its only model's safety.

    Stock price often is measured as a multiple of earnings per share. Since Tesla posted no earnings, at least in its latest quarter, it doesn't have a P/E or price to earnings ratio.

    Some say investors are bidding up Tesla because they're sure it's only a matter of time before electric vehicles catch on, like smartphones. Others are theorizing that a big carmaker is planning to buy tiny Tesla to avail itself of electric-vehicle technology and governmental clean-air credits that all automakers need to offset their relatively inefficient models.

    Similar to what Chris Anderson argues in Fortune, I believe the aura left by the late Steve Jobs has much to do with Tesla's value. Jobs was a Silicon Valley wunderkind who took Apple (AAPL), the company he co-founded, public in 1980 at about $4 a share, on a split-adjusted basis. Apple stock currently sells for about $515 a share and briefly has traded at nearly $700 a share.

    Lots of investors are still muttering about the money they "could have made" if they'd only bought Apple shares and hung on.

    Jobs was famously irascible, like another shining star of the business world, Tesla founder and chief executive officer, Elon Musk. Lots and lots of people, me among them, urged Jobs to license Apple's operating system broadly, as Microsoft had done with its MS-DOS system. Had he done so, Apple clones would have proliferated, just like PCs.

    Jobs balked, while Microsoft's (MSFT) system became an industry standard. Jobs was eventually forced out of his company, only to return in triumph. Jobs' vision was the right one for Apple. The payoff: Today, Apple is worth $463 billion, compared to Microsoft's $309 billion.

    Musk is as combative today as Jobs was then, challenging skeptics who say the market for electric vehicles is limited, who question Tesla's approach to battery technology or who point to the federal safety investigation. The Feds are investigating the three fires in Tesla Model S cars that are reported to have hit debris in the road.

    Musk has responded in Tweets and elsewhere that lots of cars catch on fire after road accidents. True, but so far no reports of fires to Nissan Leaf electric vehicles, in accidents or otherwise. Nissan reported global sales of 83,000 Leafs as of September.

    In many ways, Musk has stepped into the tech sector as a replacement for Steve Jobs. Musk is a brilliant, driven, iconoclast who doesn't suffer fools (read: those who don't agree with him) gladly. Investors who doubted Jobs and missed the spectacular run-up of Apple stock may see Tesla as a way to offset their missed opportunity.

    By buying Tesla shares now, investors could cash in handsomely down the road, when the share values soar due to a rise in electric vehicle sales -- or perhaps when a major automaker decides to acquire the entire company.

    I was wrong about Jobs; his vision for computing was valid. I don't know about Musk: Electric cars have been a tough sell.

    What I do know is that the upside for Tesla shares at their current price looks quite limited.