伊朗核问题协议出炉，但华尔街高兴得太早

    华尔街可能是伊朗和美国之间长期博弈的最新受害者。有消息称，伊朗和所谓的“五加一”国家已在上周末达成协议。协议将限制伊朗的铀浓缩活动，也会减轻该国受到的经济制裁。受此影响，本周一原油价格下降，各国股市全面飙升。

    但细看之下，这份协议几乎没有令人兴奋的地方，至少在伊美博弈刚刚开始的时候是这样。虽然有人希望这能成为和平解决争端的第一步，但局势激化的可能性依然很高。

    奥巴马总统对美伊外交官周末签署的这份协议发表了评论。听了他的话，人们可能会觉得他应该再得一次诺贝尔和平奖，因为这份协议避免了一场你死我活的核战争。然而，尽管这是美国和伊朗首次签署官方协议，具有历史意义，但它在历史上的作用并不像其他协议那么重要，比如说化解古巴导弹危机的1962年美苏协议。

    这份协议的主要目的是让双方都获得一些喘息空间，为后续谈判做好铺垫，除此之外别无他用。双方将在六个月到一年时间内拟定一份更为全面的协议。在此期间，美伊都将向对方示好，但相互的馈赠非常之少。双方的坚定立场都没有真正动摇，因此只是有限地改变了实际状况。

    想想看，伊朗给了美国什么呢？首先，他们同意国际原子能机构（IAEA）检查员对伊朗的核设施进行监督。但这不是什么大的让步，因为IAEA检查员已经可以进入大多数伊朗核设施，而且还在8月份发表了最新的监督报告。

    其次，伊朗方面同意停止修建可能用于生产钚的设施。同样，这也只是后退了一小步，原因是据报道，该设施一直未完工，是因为更为严厉的制裁造成伊朗无论如何也得不到让该设施投产所需的零部件。

    最后，伊朗同意停止铀浓缩活动，但在此之前伊朗生产的浓缩铀将超过某些类型的核反应堆投入运转所需要的数量。这似乎也不是什么了不起的成就，因为IAEA的最新报告指出，伊朗拥有的铀中，纯度令人担心的铀只占总量的4%，而且这种铀的产量一直很少。看来，这份协议并没有让伊朗放弃太多东西。相应的，美国及其盟友的让步也不大。

    Wall Street may be the latest victim in the long-running chess game involving Iran and the U.S. Equity prices shot up across the globe as oil prices fell Monday on the news that Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 had reached an agreement over the weekend, which would curb development of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.

    But a closer look at the deal suggests there is little to be excited about, at least not this early in the game. While one hopes this could be the first step to a peaceful resolution, there still remains a good chance that things could blow up.

    Listening to President Obama speak about the agreement his diplomats sealed with Iran over the weekend, one might think he deserved another Nobel Peace Prize for averting all-out thermonuclear war. But while the deal is historic, as it marks the first time the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran have officially penned an agreement together, it isn't as historic as, say, the agreement between the U.S. and the USSR in 1962 that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    The Iranian deal is primarily about giving both sides a little breathing room, setting the stage for upcoming negotiations and shouldn't be seen as anything but that. The two sides have six months to a year to hash out a more comprehensive agreement. During that time, each side will get a little something as a good faith gift -- a very little something. Neither side really budged from its hardline position, limiting the amount of change in the status quo.

    Consider what the Iranians gave to the other side. They first agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to monitor their nuclear facilities. That wasn't much of a giveaway, though, considering that IAEA inspectors already have access to most of Iran's facilities, with their most recent report issued in August.

    The Iranians also agreed to halt construction of a facility that could possibly make plutonium. That too is a bit of a weak giveaway as the facility reportedly remains unfinished because the tighter sanctions have prevented Iran from acquiring the necessary parts to bring the sucker online anyway.

    Lastly, Iran agreed to halt the enrichment of uranium to levels that are higher than what is required to feed certain types of nuclear reactors. That also doesn't seem to be a big deal as the latest IAEA report points out that only around 4% of the nation's uranium stockpiles have been enriched beyond that worrisome threshold and that production remains low.

    The Iranians don't seem to be giving up too much in the deal. As such, the U.S. and its allies aren't either.