日本经济最大的敌人是……台风？

    就在台风“海燕”袭击菲律宾之前，正在冲绳岛附近的温暖海域游泳戏水的日本北部居民肯定注意到，今年的海水更温暖一些。具体来说，海水的温度大约为28摄氏度，高于空气温度（26摄氏度）。能够在漫长的冬季抵达东京之前享受最后一缕夏日骄阳自然是美事一桩，但对于一些太平洋沿岸国家及其经济而言，这种天气却是致命的。

    像海燕这样的热带气旋通常形成于大片相对温暖的水域之上。随着今年创纪录的高温，东亚海域周围的海洋已经提供了充沛的暖度，由此催生出的超级海浪已经重创菲律宾等国，遭受打击的不仅仅是物理实体，还包括这些国家的经济。

    自然灾害似乎将不可避免地引发进一步的苦难。世界第三大经济体、富裕的岛国日本也将承受经济负担。此外，恶性台风袭来时，日本也是首当其冲的受害者。一些专家估计，在不久的将来，恶性台风将变得更加强大，更加迅猛。

    日本地处所谓“台风胡同”(Typhoon Alley)地带的中央。慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re)估计，在亚洲地区1980年至2008年10次经济损失最严重的自然灾害中，有8次是日本遭受的台风袭击。东京大学(University of Tokyo)的气候学家米格尔•埃斯特万表示，可以肯定的是，如此高的代价或许应归因于日本人购买的保单显著增加。他在近期发布的一篇论文中写道：“除了严重的物理实体损害外，日本还遭受了这些天气系统导致的其他间接经济后果，其中包括因公共交通系统或港口等重要行业瘫痪而造成的经济生产力损失。”

    日本是一个食品和能源几乎完全依赖进口的经济体，比其他发达国家更容易遭受自然灾害的破坏性影响。根据英国驻日本大使馆发布的一份气候变化报告，日本在20世纪90年代因台风遭受的直接损失比70年代高35倍，因洪灾遭受的直接损失是70年代的8倍。

    但灾难还远未终结。日本的研究人员声称，气候变化的影响预计将在本世纪下半叶酿成“超级台风”，它们将以超过高速列车的速度形成摧枯拉朽之势。

    英国发布的《斯特恩气候变化经济学评述报告》(Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change)声称，这种风暴的经济影响将极其严重。“气候变化的整体成本和风险将相当于全球GDP每年至少损失5%，从现在一直持续至永远。如果把更广泛的风险和影响考虑在内，这种损失估计将上升至全球GDP的20%，甚至更多。”

    “台风当然损害经济，它们在各地造成的损害一直在增加，”埃斯特万说。“然而，损失的上升总的来说是因为暴露于灾害之下的生命财产数量增加了。跟50年前比起来，现在居住在沿海地区的人更多，人们拥有的财物也更多。所以，台风造成的经济损失也更大。”

    对于日本列岛而言，2013年无疑是一个台风“大年”。日本列岛每年平均经受26.7次台风，而今年迄今为止已经历了28次，年内很可能将超过30次。日本旋风（太平洋的台风和大西洋的飓风）通常生成于南太平洋，它经常搭乘的正是那股把环球航行者沿日本东海岸送往旧金山的急流——台风盟军(Typhoon Ally)。

    埃斯特万说：“鉴于全球变暖不断加剧，我们务必要理解这些现象造成的时间和金钱损失可能的上升趋势。”随着相关国家试图成长为类似日本这样的经济体，损失只会有增无减。

    Northern revelers swimming the balmy seas off Okinawa just before typhoon Haiyun struck the Philippines must have noticed the waters were warmer this year. Around 28 degrees Celsius, compared to an air temperature of 26 degrees Celsius. Great for a last bit of summer sun before the long winter in Tokyo but deadly for some of the peoples of the Pacific and their economies.

    Tropical cyclones like Haiyun typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. With record high temperatures this year, the oceans around the East Asian seas have supplied such warmth in abundance, generating megastorms, which have hit nations like the Philippines hard, both physically and economically.

    Further misery from natural disasters seems unavoidable. And the wealthier islands of Japan -- the world's third-biggest economy – will also share the financial burden. Japan also bares the brunt of vicious typhoons, which are forecast to grow even stronger in the near future, according to experts.

    Japan is located in the middle of what is known as Typhoon Alley. Reinsurer Munich Re reckons that, between 1980 and 2008, eight of the 10 costliest natural disasters in Asia were typhoons that hit Japan. To be sure, such high costs may be due to an increase in insurance policies taken out in Japan, says climate scientist Miguel Esteban at the University of Tokyo. "Japan has experienced severe physical damage and other, indirect economic consequences of these weather systems. These include the loss in economic productivity due to downtime in the public transportation system or other important industries, such as ports," he wrote in a recent paper.

    Relying almost entirely on imports of food and energy, Japan Inc. is more vulnerable to the disruptive effects of natural disasters than other developed states. According to a report on climate change by the U.K. Embassy in Japan, the cost of direct damage from typhoons in Japan in the 1990s was 35 times greater than what it was in the 1970s, while the cost of damage related to flooding was eight times as much.

    If that weren't enough, the effects of climate change are expected to spawn "super-typhoons," packing winds faster than a bullet train in the second half of this century, say Japanese researchers.

    The economic repercussions of such storms will be severe, says the U.K.'s Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. "The overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more."

    "Of course typhoons hurt the economy, and the damage they cause has generally been increasing," says Esteban. "Although this increase is generally attributed to increased exposure. There are more people in coastal areas, and people own more things these days than they did 50 years ago, so when something happens, the economic damage is greater."

    2013 has certainly been a typhoon bumper year for the Japanese archipelago, which usually averages about 26.7 annually. The tally has been 28 typhoons so far, with that number likely to surpass 30. Japanese cyclones -- typhoons in the Pacific, hurricanes in the Atlantic -- are normally spawned in the south Pacific and often travel up the same jet stream -- Typhoon Ally -- that sent pioneering circumnavigators along the east coast of Japan toward San Francisco.

    "With global warming on the rise, it is important to understand how the amount of time and money lost due to these phenomena could increase," says Esteban. As nations attempt to grow into economies like Japan, losses will only increase.