中移动入选基金经理推荐的20大金股
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别人贪婪的时候要恐惧。这条投资哲理是拜沃伦•巴菲特所赐。按照这样的原则，在股指创新历史高、曾经遭到打击的投资者再次成群结队地重返股市的时候，我们就应该非常、非常小心。市场似乎早就应该稍作喘息了（甚至是进行全面休整），而这正是一个绝佳的机会，可以听一听那些无论在顺境和逆境中都表现出色的投资者有哪些想法，进而加以利用。为此，我们从顶尖的共同基金经理那里收集了各种各样的炒股思路。他们推荐的有价格较低的价值股，也有势头迅猛的成长股，有小型企业，也有庞然大物，有美国本土公司，也有来自海外的企业。其中的共性是：荐股者都有出众的长期业绩。经验压倒一切，特别是在牛市当中。 一批经受住了时间考验的精英基金经理人提供了2014年最佳的炒股思路。 |
The moment to be most fearful is when everybody else is blissfully unconcerned. That bit of investing wisdom comes courtesy of Warren Buffett, and by that standard, as stock indexes set new records and once-traumatized investors pile back into equities, we should be very, very cautious. The market is seemingly overdue for a breather (if not a full-fledged swoon), so it's the perfect time to take advantage of insights from investors who have thrived in good times and bad. To that end, we've assembled stock ideas from an eclectic assortment of top mutual fund managers. They've chosen low-priced values and roaring fast-growers; small fry and behemoths; U.S. companies and distant players. The one commonality: the superior long-term records of the people selecting the stocks. Because nothing beats experience, especially when times are good. A time-tested group of elite fund managers offer their best stock ideas for 2014. |
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Vitamin Shoppe 浓缩的都是精华。规模仅为2.60亿美元的特纳新兴增长基金（Turner Emerging Growth，交易代码：TMCGX）就是如此。1998年弗兰克•萨斯特思科开始担任经理人至今，这只基金的年化回报率高达18.9%，远远超过晨星公司（Morningstar）统计的小型增长基金9.1%的平均值。目前萨斯特思科看好的股票是Vitamin Shoppe。这是一家全国性连锁零售商，销售营养品、维生素和减肥产品。萨斯特思科说：“我喜欢那些无论经济形势如何都能不断增长的股票。”他指出，许多消费者都在寻找实现全面健康的方法。2013年Vitamin Shoppe的股价下跌了6%，原因是现有零售店的营业额增速放慢以及开店数量未达到10%的增长目标。萨斯特思科认为投资者反应过于激烈，他预计：“开店数量仍然可以增长8%或9%。”上个季度，这家公司现有零售店营业额小幅上升了2.6%，低于通常6%以上的水平。萨斯特思科认为，得益于电视节目Dr.Oz的推广，促进新陈代谢产品在2012年的销售额增长迅猛，这让该公司在上个季度很难再有什么作为。他说：“今后季度业绩实现增长将变得容易得多。实际上，大多数零售商都会不惜一切代价来实现2.6%的增长。” --J.B. |
Vitamin Shoppe Frank Sustersic Small can be sublime. So it is for the $260 million Turner Emerging Growth Fund(TMCGX), run since 1998 by Frank Sustersic. During that time it has delivered 18.9% annualized returns, obliterating the 9.1% average for Morningstar's small-growth category. His current favorite stock: Vitamin Shoppe, the national retail chain that sells supplements, vitamins, and weight-loss products. "I love to find stocks that are growing irrespective of what's happening with the economy," says Sustersic, who notes that many consumers are seeking holistic health approaches. Vitamin Shoppe's stock has slipped 6% in 2013 because of slowing sales growth at existing stores and missing a target for a 10% increase in new-store openings. Sustersic thinks investors have overreacted. "The store count will still be up 8% or 9%," he says. Sales at existing stores edged up 2.6% last quarter, below the company's usual 6%-plus. Sustersic contends the quarterly comparisons were tough due to gangbuster 2012 sales of "metabolism boosters" promoted by TV's Dr. Oz. "The quarterly comparisons become much easier going forward," says Sustersic. "The reality is that most retailers would kill for 2.6% comps anyway." --J.B. |
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Hain Celestial 势头迅猛，价格合理。这就是金伯莉•斯科特的投资哲学。10年来，Waddell & Reed新概念基金（Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund，交易代码：UNECX）在她的带领下实现了11.5%的平均回报率，好于95%的同类基金。目前斯科特看好Hain Celestial。首先，这是因为这家公司销售的天然有机食品有着极具爆发性的吸引力。但她指出，Hain Celestial不仅仅是全食公司（Whole Foods，交易代码：WFM，《财富》500强）那样的企业，传统杂货商都在增加天然有机食品的销售比重。Hain Celestial的聪明之处在于，它在自己销售的商品中不断地加入一些创新型品牌。比如5月份被该公司收购的英国婴儿食品生产商Ella’s Kitchen（从上个月开始，Ella’s Kitchen的婴儿果泥产品开始进入美国的4000家沃尔玛（Wal-Mart ，交易代码：WMT，《财富》500强）超市。3年来，Hain Celestial的盈利增幅一直接近40%。分析师还预计，今后3-5年该公司的每股收益还将以15%的速度增长。斯科特说，此外，Hain Celestial很重视发掘制造业务和供应链的生产率，这在成长型公司中“很少见”。结论：她保守预计，这家公司的股价将在4年内从目前的约85美元上涨到135美元。--S.M. |
Hain Celestial Kimberly Scott Burgeoning trends at a reasonable price. That's Kimberly Scott's philosophy. Her Waddell & Reed New Concepts Fund (UNECX) has averaged 11.5% returns over the past decade, better than 95% of its peers, and these days she favors Hain Celestial. The case starts with the exploding appeal of the kind of natural and organic foods the company sells. It ain't justWhole Foods (WFM, Fortune 500) either, she notes; traditional grocers are devoting more shelf space to the category. Plus, Scott says, Hain has been smart about adding innovative brands like the British baby-food maker Ella's Kitchen, acquired in May, to its existing lineup. (Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) began stocking Ella's squeezable pouches at its 4,000 U.S. stores last month.) Hain's earnings have been mounting at close to 40% for the past three years, and analysts project another three to five years of 15% EPS increases. What's more, Scott says, Hain Celestial is the "rare" growth company with a focus on squeezing productivity and profits from its manufacturing operations and supply chain. The upshot: Her "conservative" projections have the stock, currently trading around $85, reaching $135 in the next four years. --S.M. |
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百事公司 唐•亚克曼 唐•亚克曼的经营业绩独步全球的秘诀一直都是温和和稳定【他管理的亚克曼基金（规模为135亿美元，交易代码：YACKX）和焦点基金（规模为117亿美元，交易代码：YAFFX）10年来的年均回报率都在11%左右，远远胜过标普500指数（交易代码：SPX）3.2%的水平】。亚克曼的策略是，在大公司不受市场青睐时买进、持有它们的股票，而且基本上是永久持有。在市场屡创新高的情况下，亚克曼和他的儿子、基金联席经理史蒂芬•亚克曼一直在寻找让人放心的投资标的。史蒂芬说：“我们更注重防御性，而不是攻击性。”而剔除风险因素后，百事公司（PepsiCo）所承诺的正是他们眼中的最佳回报。通过分红和回购股票，百事公司将向股东返还4.5%-5%的现金。史蒂芬指出，加上预期中的股价上涨和2%-3%的销量增长，回报率应该可以达到9%-10%。考虑到百事在快餐领域的垄断地位以及它前瞻性地想到了推出健康饮品来取代原有产品，这样的回报率不会随着时间的推移而逐渐下降。唐指出：“你可以把这当作买进一只估值偏低的AAA级债券，它不会让你感到非常兴奋，但这就是关键所在：就算外面狂风呼啸，你也可以睡个安稳觉。”--S.M. |
PepsiCo Don Yacktman Slow and steady has always been the recipe for Don Yacktman's world-beating results. (His $13.5 billion namesake (YACKX) and $11.7 billion Focused Fund (YAFFX) have both returned about 11% a year for a decade, crushing the S&P (SPX) by 3.2 percentage points a year.) His strategy: Buy great companies when they're out of favor and hold them, more or less forever. With the market regularly hitting new highs, Yacktman and son and co-manager Stephen are craving comfort food. "We're focused on defense more than offense," Stephen says, and PepsiCo promises just about the best "risk-adjusted" returns out there. Between dividends and stock buybacks, the company is paying shareholders 4.5% to 5% in cash. Add in anticipated growth from price increases and 2% to 3% unit volume increases and you can expect to earn 9% to 10%, Stephen argues. Given Pepsi's stranglehold on the snack-food aisle and its forward thinking about healthy alternatives, that return won't be nibbled away over time. "Think of it like buying an undervalued triple-A bond," says Don. "It's not very exciting, but that's the point: You sleep at night when the wind blows." --S.M. |
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塔吉特公司 从多个角度来说，2013年塔吉特公司（Target）在加拿大开疆拓土是一场悲剧。这家公司计划中的第一家“124 Canadian”零售店3月份开张，随即就陷入价格较高而商品种类有限的困境。塔吉特今年跑输标普指数50%，这是原因之一。但管理着Invesco多元化分红型基金（Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund，规模为87亿美元，交易代码：LCEAX）的梅根•沃尔什认为，塔吉特的走势并不合理。10年来，她的基金实现了8.7%的平均年化回报率，高于标普指数7.8%的水平。这只基金寻找的是估值偏低的分红型公司。沃尔什说：“塔吉特已经知道问题出在哪里，它的股东马上就要从投资中受益了。”她认为，在加拿大方面的帮助下，明年塔吉特的资本开支将减少10亿美元，而且有可能将多余现金返还给股东。和竞争对手相比，光临塔吉特的消费者有着更高的平均收入，在非必需品上的支出也更多。沃尔什因此认为，塔吉特的同店销售额将上升。她指出，这将带动塔吉特的动态市盈率从14倍升至15.5倍的10年平均值。--S.M. |
Target By many accounts, Target botched its 2013 incursion into Canada. When the first of the retailer's planned 124 Canadian stores opened in March, it was hampered by high prices and limited supplies. That's one reason Target's shares have underperformed the S&P by 50% this year. But Meggan Walsh, who runs the $8.7 billion Invesco Diversified Dividend Fund (LCEAX), thinks the episode has been blown out of proportion. Her fund, which has averaged 8.7% annualized returns over a decade, vs. 7.8% for the S&P, looks for undervalued dividend-payers. "The problems have been identified, and we're at the point where shareholders will begin to benefit from the investments," she says. With the Canadian push behind it, she adds, Target will reduce capital expenditures by $1 billion next year and is likely to pass the extra cash to shareholders. And because Target's customers have higher average incomes and do more discretionary spending than the competition's, Walsh expects better same-store sales. That, she argues, will help nudge its forward P/E ratio from 14 back toward its 10-year average of 15.5. --S.M. |
