泰国怪现象：政治动荡，经济稳定发展

    过去两周，关注泰国的人肯定会再次感到沮丧，因为这个国家再次爆发了政治动荡。

    反政府示威者再次展开行动，占领政府建筑，破坏商业设施，挟持媒体，造成严重破坏，希望推翻现任政府。11月24日，冲突升级，泰国首都的警方发射了催泪弹和橡皮子弹。共有数百人在冲突中受伤，还造成四人死亡。

    上周二，泰国恢复了脆弱的平静，守卫总理府的警察向示威者打开大门。下午，示威者蜂拥而入，反对派宣布赢得“部分胜利”，并在总理府的草坪上欢庆胜利。然而，从对政府这一方来说，这只是一种比安抚政策稍显精明的应对方式：当天是泰国备受尊敬的普密蓬国王86岁生日，这样的场合需要庄重和平的庆祝氛围。

    很难想象在国王生日之后，示威者会不会很快重新走上街头。

    那么，这样的局面对于东南亚第二大经济体意味着什么？

    或许，影响并没有想象中那么严重。

    虽然这次政治动荡的时机非常糟糕——泰国已经进入旅游旺季，旅游业必将受到打击——但许多分析师认为，示威活动“不会造成严重的经济破坏”，杰富瑞集团（Jefferies）的分析师戴仕文便是其中之一。

    这在泰国似乎已经成了的一种惯例：几乎没有哪个国家能在这样的环境之下还能保持政局的稳定。自1932年以来，泰国共经历了18次政变——频率几乎赶上美国的总统选举周期。最近的一次是在2006年，时任总理他信•西那瓦被推翻。这位备受争议的媒体大亨2001年出任泰国总理，有人认为他是民粹主义者，有人认为他是腐败的政客。他信目前居住在迪拜，一直密切关注着泰国政局。

    2006年至今，泰国发生了很多事情，但也可以说没什么变化。在此期间泰国政府却经历了七次更迭，政局时而缓和，时而动荡。2008年，泰国“黄衫军”关闭曼谷机场数天。2010年，“红衫军”关闭了曼谷市中心的商业区，持续时间长达数周；政府进行了镇压，造成92人死亡，并导致曼谷最大的超级购物中心和泰国证券交易所被烧毁。2011年，他信的妹妹英拉继任总理——然而，这一民主选举的结果却引发了更多的麻烦。比如在最近几周，英拉政府提出一项特赦法案，从2004年至今所有政治冲突的罪犯将获得赦免，其中最著名的就是她的哥哥他信。

    或许大家认为这样的局面即使不会给这个国家带来全面的灾难，也会令投资者和游客望而却步，但瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师沙迪拉泰进行的调查显示，历史上，泰国的政局动荡对其GDP增长或其他经济指标并没有造成太大的负面影响。因此，记者给这个国家冠以“特氟龙泰国”的称号（特氟龙一般被用于制造器皿涂层，外表光滑，不易粘连食物——译注）：2010年虽然发生了血腥镇压，但泰国经济仍保持了7.8%的增长速度。股票市场上涨了40.6%，游客人数创历史新高。据万事达卡（MasterCard）统计，曼谷仍是2013年“全球旅游目的地”之一。

    当然，这并不意味着即使泰国政局恢复正常，它的经济也不会变得更好。戴仕文表示，占泰国经济6.5%的旅游业此次到严重冲击；他将泰国经济的恢复能力大部分归结于持续的国外直接投资，泰国在国际贸易中的有利地位，以及强劲的信贷增长。

    不过，他同时也警告，近几年，保持泰国经济相对健康的那些条件正在发生变化。全球经济疲软，信贷增长遇到瓶颈，“最大的担忧是国外直接投资将会转移到其他国家。”

    而戴仕文在12月3日的报告中写道，“投资者需要警惕的”并不是泰国的政治，而是它的货币政策——上个月，泰国银行突然降息以促进增长，分析师一片哗然。

    瑞士信贷分析师沙迪拉泰也警告称，当前政治动荡对经济的负面影响可能要超过以往。他在11月28日的报告中写道：“目前，泰国的GDP增长更多依赖旅游业和政府的基础设施投入。”虽然旅游人数（再次）创历史新高，2013年前九个月增加了23%，但持续的暴力冲突必将影响到今年剩余的时间和2014年的旅游预订情况。而且，持续的政治紧张局势将使政府的大规模基础设施建设项目、包括曼谷的公共交通系统被推迟，让情况变得更加复杂。

    他补充道，政治动荡可能使政府冒险采取民粹主义政策。此举虽然能够促进短期发展，从长期来看却会对泰国经济造成伤害。

    但瑞士信贷仍预测2014年泰国的GPD将增长4.5%；杰富瑞集团预计的数字是5.2%。

    目前，泰国“资深”政客、炙手可热的反对派领袖宣称，要建立一个由“好人”领导的议会，因此，相比泰国的民主，押注泰国市场或许更加安全。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪浩

    For Thailand watchers, the past couple of weeks have surely brought that too-familiar sinking feeling: Here we go again.

    Anti-government protestors are back in action -- occupying government compounds, crippling business, hijacking media, and generally wreaking havoc -- in an effort to bring down another government. On Sunday, events escalated so much that police in the capital issued tear gas and rubber bullets. A few hundred were injured, and four were killed.

    On Tuesday of this week the country had settled into a tenuous calm, when police defending Government House -- the Prime Minister's compound -- opened the gates to anti-government protestors who spilled in and spent the afternoon, declaring "partial victory" and merry-making on the premier's lawn. But that was a more shrewd than conciliatory strategy on the government's part: Today marks the 86th birthday of the nation's much adored monarch, King Bhumibol, an occasion that calls for sober celebration and peace.

    It's hard to imagine the protestors won't be back on the street soon after the King's special day has passed.

    So what does this mean for Southeast Asia's second largest economy?

    Not as much as you might think.

    Though this bout of unrest is certainly ill-timed -- Thailand's tourism high season is barely underway and will surely take a hit -- analysts like Jefferies' Sean Darby believe the protests are "unlikely to cause major economic disruptions."

    This would seem to be the norm in Thailand: Few countries pull off political instability quite so well. Since 1932, the country has experienced 18 coups -- that's a rate that almost matches the American presidential election cycle. The most recent of those was in 2006, when Thaksin Shinawatra, the divisive media tycoon who became Prime Minister in 2001 -- populist to some, corrupt politician to others -- was overthrown. Shinawatra, now in Dubai, has haunted Thai politics ever since.

    Both a lot and very little has happened in the intervening years. The government has changed seven times, against a backdrop of chronic, and at times, serious political turmoil. Yellow-shirt protestors shut down Bangkok's airports for days in 2008. In 2010, red shirt protestors shut down Bangkok's central business district for weeks; the government responded with a crackdown that resulted in 92 deaths, and provoked the torching of Bangkok's biggest megamall and the nation's stock exchange. Shinawatra's sister, Yingluck, became Prime Minister, in 2011 -- a democratic development that nonetheless promised only more trouble, like that of recent weeks, when her government proposed an amnesty bill that would forgive all -- most notably Thaksin Shinawatra -- accused of crimes committed in political conflict dating back to 2004.

    You'd expect developments like these to spook investors and tourists, if not create outright catastrophe for a country, but research by Santitarn Sathirathai, an analyst with Credit Suisse shows Thailand's political instability has had remarkably little negative impact on its GDP growth or other economic measures over the years. Journalists dub the country "Teflon Thailand" for this very reason: Despite the bloody crackdown, the Thai economy grew 7.8% in 2010. The stock market was up 40.6%, and tourism numbers hit record highs. Bangkok ranks as 2013's top global destination according to MasterCard.

    That's not to say the economy wouldn't be in better shape if Thailand had its political house in order. Darby notes that tourism -- which accounts for 6.5% of the Thai economy -- has been dampened at times; he chalks much of the economy's resilience up to continued foreign direct investment, conditions that have favored Thailand in global trade, and strong credit growth.

    But he also warns the conditions that kept the Thai economy relatively healthy in recent years are changing. The global economy is weak, credit growth is at its limit, and "the major fear is foreign direct investment will be diverted to other countries."

    But rather than politics, Darby, in a Dec. 3 report, wrote it's the country's monetary policy -- the Bank of Thailand surprised analysts with an interest rate cut last month to boost growth -- that "ought to be setting the alarm bells ringing in investors ears."

    Sathirathai, the analyst with Credit Suisse, also cautions that political turbulence may have a more potent effect on the economy now than in the past. "GDP growth is now much more reliant on tourism and the government's infrastructure spending," he wrote in a Nov. 28 report. Though tourism numbers were (again) at record highs, up 23% for the first nine months of 2013, further violence would certainly jeopardize bookings for the rest of the year and in 2014. And continued political tension will delay and complicate government action on big infrastructure projects, among them work on Bangkok's mass transit system.

    He adds the political unrest may tempt the government to adopt populist policies that would boost short-term growth, but that could hurt in the long-run.

    Still, Credit Suisse forecasts Thailand's GDP to grow 4.5% in 2014; Jeffries has it at 5.2%.

    For now, with the leader of the opposition, a longtime politician and establishment figure, calling to install a council of "good people" to govern, the Thai market seems a safer bet than Thai democracy.