三大隐患影响中国未来

    如今，对于如何评价和解读中国，大家众说纷纭。然而，无论是外交官、投资者还是商业人士，大家都普遍持有这样一个观点，即：中国是一个高风险、高回报的国家。这个论断并不是空穴来风，原因很简单：的确，回报有可能是巨大的，但是，中国的业务并不好做，而且并不一定保证能够取得成功。真正让人头疼的事情在于，人们难以发现、划分和量化在中国开展业务所面临的实际风险。没错，中国房地产市场、影子银行部门都存在风险，而且还有少数民族问题。除此之外，一位顶级的中国问题专家最近在谈话中还提到了下面三大风险：

    首先，有一点需要说明的是，毫无疑问，中国新一届领导人眼下的工作千头万绪。如今，中国人口规模空前，而且中国与全球经济的联系比以更为紧密，利害攸关，程度空前。再加上世人对中国的关注度越来越高，而且透明度也在不断提升。试问，有多少人知道，1972年尼克松总统首次访华的时候中国GDP是多少？如今，42年过后，我们所有人都在屏息等待中国公布这个数字。因此，在一定程度上，习近平主席和李克强总理如今所做决策的重要性并不亚于毛泽东和邓小平，可能还有过之而无不及。

    任何举措都同时存在影响和风险。例如（风险1），大家都知道中国现在正在推动大规模的城市化进程。有专家质疑：“一旦4亿人口全部涌入城市，情况到底会变成什么样？他们的价值观呢？这些人肯定会发生变化。”而这种改变会给城市的方方面面带来重大的影响，包括购物习惯、健康以及社交媒体等等。问题在于，如果不先调整社会发展趋势，就贸然把相当于整个美国总人口一半还要多的人安置到城市之中，显然行不通。而且，没有人能确切到底怎样才能实现这一幕。

    其次，（风险2）最近中国强制划定了防空识别区，与日本之前所划定的发生了重叠。这起事件会带来什么样的影响？防空识别区本身倒不是问题，问题在于事态会如何发展。一旦中国划定了识别区，那么，下一个识别区在哪？这类举措会带来问题，而问题可能会进一步升级。历史告诉我们，第一次世界大战的导火索就是源于事态的不断升级。

    朝鲜的存在（风险3）。这个国家是韩国、中国和美国的心头痛，也是世界其他地区的隐患。最近朝鲜明目张胆地处决金正恩的姑父、国家高层领导张成泽就是一起重大事件。张成泽是中朝关系的核心人物，而人们尚不清楚他的消失会带来什么样的影响。虽然让金正恩下台可能并不难，但是此事一旦发生，朝鲜将出现权力的真空期，进而有可能导致社会动荡。全世界包括中国都会头疼不已。

    中国的前景并非一片黯淡，但是这些风险值得拿出来探讨。谈到中国和中国蕴藏的风险，了解再多都不嫌多。（财富中文网）

    注：本文作者为《财富》杂志主编

    There are myriad ways to view and understand China these days. And one that is quite common amongst everyone from diplomats to investors to businesspeople is seeing China as a high risk, high reward proposition. There is some validity to this, simply because, yes, the gains can be great, but the work is hard and success isn't guaranteed. The really tricky part is identifying, prioritizing, and quantifying the actual risks one faces in China. Yes there are risks in the real estate market, the shadow banking sector, and with ethnic minorities, but here are three that recently came up in a conversation with a top Sinologist.

    First, let's be clear that there's no question that the new leadership in China has its hands full. The stakes have never been higher simply because of course China has more people than ever and is more interconnected than ever to the global economy. Couple that with the fact that the levels of interest and transparency have never been higher. For instance, how many people had any idea what China's GDP growth rate was in 1972 when President Nixon first visited? Now 42 years later we all wait for that number with bated breath. So in a way President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are making decisions today that are just as momentous -- maybe more so -- as those made by Mao and Deng.

    And there are consequences -- and risks -- to every move. For instance (and risk No. 1), we all know about the great urbanization push being made in China today. "But what actually happens when 400 million people move to the city?" asks one expert. "What about their values? They will change." And this change will have huge consequences in terms of everything from shopping habits, to health care to social media. The point is you can't simply relocate a population greater than that of the United States without a reordering of the social dynamic. And of course no one really knows how that will play out.

    Next, (risk No. 2) what about the recent imposition by China of an Air Defense Identification Zone in an area that overlaps an older zone claimed by Japan? It's not the zone itself that is a concern; it's where does this lead. It's as if the Chinese put down a marker. The question is, Where's the next marker? These kinds of moves can create problems, which could lead to an escalation, and escalations are what caused World War One for instance.

    And then there's North Korea, (risk No. 3) a worry for South Korea, China, the U.S., and the rest of the world too. The recent and very public removal of Jang Song Thaek, the uncle of supreme leader Kim Jong Un, was a significant event. The uncle was the primary point person in North Korea's relationship with China, and the consequences of his removal are unclear. It might not take much for Kim Jong Un to fall from power, and if that happened it would create a vacuum that could be a potentially destabilizing. All of us including the Chinese would be left wondering.

    It's not all doom and gloom in China, but these risks were worth talking about. When it comes to China and risk, it's hard to know too much.