你的养老钱攒多了吗

    你的养老金是不是存得太多了？或者你认为这个问题本身就很无厘头？

    而事实是这样的：晨星投资管理公司（Morningstar）退休研究部主管大卫•布兰切特率先提出了这个问题，而且他发现， 20%左右的人对这个问题的回答是肯定的。布兰切特认为情况有些严重，他说：“养老储蓄金毫无疑问是大多数人人生最大的一笔投入。但想象和现实差距很大，人们以为自己需要存上100万美元来养老，实际上只要80万就够了。”

    那么，这种情况是否也出现在你身上？大家最好还是重新审视一下自己的养老储蓄计划，以及目前的开销。

    长期以来，根据概测法，人们应该存下退休前收入（即退休前的最终年收入）的70%到80%作为养老金。而且，算上通货膨胀的话，这个比例还应该逐年上调。但美国消费者金融调查报告（Survey of Consumer Finances）的数据显示，人们的实际开销并不会因为通胀的影响而上涨。

    通常，四十五至五十岁的人群开销最大。（这个年龄段的人通常要负担一个上大学的孩子，同时抚养一个一两岁的小家伙。）但之后，开支就逐渐减少了，尤其是等到孩子们都成年以后，父母们就会缩减开销，取消房贷抵押（尽管这种情况越来越少），处理掉多余的汽车。这种状态一直持续到晚年，直到医疗和交通方面的开销出现增长。根据年龄段的不同，人们退休后的年均最低花费在退休前收入中的占比从低于54%到超过87%不等。

    摩根大通资产管理公司（JP Morgan）退休部的主管迈克尔•法尔孔说，这对于年收入约5.6万美元的中等收入人群是个鼓舞人心的消息：这部分人群退休后的年度开支并没有像当初预料的那样，从65岁时所需的4.3万美元增长到90岁时的8万美元（受通胀影响），而是仅仅止步于5万美元左右。其中，社保资金弥补了相当大的缺口。

    但收入更高的人群，尤其是高于平均水平，但称不上富豪的那些人，在决定养老储蓄时不能掉以轻心。他们退休后的开支当然会较之退休前减少，但这并不意味着他们的储蓄足以维持这些开支。

    法尔孔说：“多攒钱是‘富人’不得不面对的问题。”他的解释是：“如果我一年能挣20万到30万美元，那么在退休前，我的开销可能是收入中较小的一部分，因为我得存钱，还得交税。我大概只会花掉总收入的50%。”而由于扣除各种费用后的实际收入更高，社会保险所能承担的退休后开支占退休前收入的比例也无法达到与较低收入人群相同的比例。而税款也是很大一笔开支，包括从退休账户取款需要缴纳的税款。

    当然，确定自己是否过度储蓄是明智之举。这样的话，你就不会在当下急需开支时瞻前顾后。比如，你可以把一部分储蓄用来替孩子还掉助学贷款，也可以把它用于休闲娱乐。布兰切特给出了一条私人建议：“和金融理财师交流5小时绝对有必要。遗憾的是，很少有人这么做。”如果你不想聘请理财师，利用网络工具和退休计算器也不失为明智的做法。

    另外，请记住，这篇文章要说明的道理之一是，制定退休储蓄计划不是一劳永逸的事。你的花销并不是一成不变，同样，你的健康状况、赚钱能力以及你的投资回报顺序也不是一成不变的，未来它们甚至会失去控制。即使你已设定了退休目标，而且正在为之奋斗，每隔几年重新评估一下也是相当重要的。这样做不仅有益于未来的生活，也有助于过好当前的生活。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓   

    Are you saving too much for retirement? Can you believe I'm even asking that question?

    Full disclosure: The folks at Morningstar Investment Management, specifically head of retirement research David Blanchett, asked it first. He found that for many people the answer is yes -- by an average of 20%. That, as Blanchett acknowledges, is a big deal. "Retirement is, by and large, the most expensive purchase of anyone's lifetime," he says. "For people who think they need $1 million but find they only need $800,000, it is a big difference."

    So how do you figure out whether it applies to you? You have to take a step back and look at both the retirement saving goals you've set for yourself and your current spending.

    There has long been a rule of thumb that says you should plan to replace 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income (that is, your final annual salary before you retire) in retirement -- and that that number should be adjusted upward, with inflation, each year. In real life, data from the Survey of Consumer Finances shows, spending, and therefore the amount you'll need, isn't that linear.

    People in their mid-40s to 50s spend the most. (As someone right in the middle of that range with one child in college and another starting in 18 months, I can totally see why that's the case.) From there, spending starts to decline as -- typically -- the kids leave the nest, you downsize, retire the mortgage (although that's getting less common), ditch the extra car, etc., etc., until medical needs drive expenses up again toward the end of life. Bottom line, the amount people need to replace varies from under 54% of pre-retirement income to over 87%.

    For average earners, whose pre-retirement income is roughly $56,000, this is welcome news, says Michael Falcon, Head of Retirement at JP Morgan Asset Management. Their annual spending in retirement seems not to be escalating as previously thought from around $43,000 at age 65 to nearly $80,000 at age 90 (due to inflation); instead, it climbs only to around $50,000. Social Security can cover a significant chunk of that.

    But higher earners -- particularly those who earn more than the median income but below what the country considers wealthy -- should be cautious before taking their feet off the gas. Their spending actually declines in retirement -- but that still doesn't mean they'll have saved enough to cover it.

    "Having to save more is an affluent problem," Falcon says. And here's why: "If I make $200,000 to $300,000 a year, I'm probably spending a lower percentage of my gross income pre-retirement because of saving and taxes," Falcon says. "I may be spending only 50% of my gross salary." Still, because of the higher take-home, Social Security will not replace the same percentage of pre-retirement income. And taxes -- including those on withdrawals from retirement accounts -- will take a bigger bite.

    Of course it pays to figure out if indeed you're over-saving. That would free you up to use the money in the present, whether you put it toward defraying student loan debt for your kids or enjoying yourselves. Blanchett recommends a personal touch. "Nothing can substitute for spending five hours with a CFP," he says. "But the percent of the population that will do that ... is a definite minority." For people who are not going to engage, utilizing the online tools and retirement calculators available is a step in the right direction.

    And remember, one thing this paper shows is that this is not a one-and-done experience. Your spending is not static. Neither is your health, earning potential, or -- even further from your control -- the sequence of your investment returns. Even if you've set retirement goals and are working toward them, revisiting the process every couple of years will pay off. Not just in how you're able to live in the long run, but in how you're able to live today.