末日博士：中国可能会推迟经济改革

    末日博士又回来了。

    因为准确预测房地产泡沫破裂和金融危机而名满天下的纽约大学(New York University)经济学家努里尔•鲁比尼上周五表示，2014年将是美国经济另一个令人失望的年份。与几年前相比，鲁比尼其实对美国经济更加乐观了一些。但随着经济前景有所改善，再加上华盛顿的政治僵持出现一定程度缓和，其他经济学家纷纷上调了他们的经济预测值。

    因此，鲁比尼认为经济学界的共识再次超前。

    相反，这位纽约大学经济学家认为经济增速将回升，但还是不足以提升美国普通工人的收入。这种情况将限制美国人购物和偿债的能力，而经济的持续增长恰恰需要这两方面来维系。与此同时，企业盈利正在放缓。虽然股票还没有泡沫，但鲁比尼认为目前的股价看起来有些昂贵。他还认为，日益增长的能源供应在2014年对美国经济的推动或许不如很多人认为的那么大。

    “现在的问题是，我们是否已经踏上了脱离泡沫的可持续增长轨道，”鲁比尼说。“答案是，还没有。”

    上周五，在时代公司(Time Inc)主办的一场早餐会上，鲁比尼发表了这番见解。欧亚集团 (Eurasia Group)的伊恩•布雷默也参加了这场由《时代》周刊(Time)财经编辑拉娜•弗鲁哈尔主持的早餐会谈。

    布雷默也认为，经济学家的预测过于超前。但他指出，2014年的主要风险将来自政治领域，而非经济。他最担忧事情的是，奥巴马在第二任期的外交政策议程似乎不那么雄心勃勃。他说，爱德华•斯诺登曝光的美国政府监控计划已经伤害了美国的海外形象。“其他国家或许不爱我们充当世界警察，”布雷默说。“但他们的确非常不喜欢我们成为世界的私家侦探。”

    布雷默认为，这起事件的负面印象将减少美国公司的海外机会。最重要的是，包括巴西在内的许多新兴市场国家将在今年举行大选。他说，这一点可能会导致比以往更大的政治动荡。

    鲁比尼与布雷默对中国经济的前景持不同意见。布雷默认为，中国或许将驯服金融部门。“会不会有银行倒闭？会，”布雷默说。“中国人正处在必须得挑出赢家和输家的时点。这将导致不稳定。”

    鲁比尼则认为，出于对增长前景的担忧，中国在未来几年很可能会推迟经济改革。“中国经济今年不会硬着陆，”鲁比尼说。“但中国经济增长的50%来自政府推动，这是不可持续的。”

    中国的问题或许会对美国产生正面影响。布雷默说，中国领导人将再次把经济增长的希望寄托在美国身上。他认为，这将促使中国加大在美国的投资。

    Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who is famous for having predicted the housing bust and financial crisis, said on Friday that 2014 will be another disappointing year for the U.S. economy. Roubini is actually a bit more optimistic about the U.S. than he has been in previous years. But as the outlook has improved, and the stagnation in Washington has lessened a bit, other economists have upped their economic prognoses.

    As a result, Roubini once again thinks the consensus has gotten ahead of itself.

    Instead, the NYU economist says growth will pick up, but not enough to produce raises for average American workers. That will limit Americans' ability to shop and pay down debt, two things the economy needs for sustained growth. At the same time, corporate earnings are slowing. And while stocks aren't in a bubble, Roubini says they now look expensive. What's more, he says the U.S. may not get as much of a boost from its growing energy supply in 2014 as many think.

    "The question is whether we have gotten to sustainable growth that is not based on bubbles," says Roubini. "Not yet."

    Roubini made his comments at a breakfast event hosted on Friday by Time Inc. The conversation, which also included the Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer, was moderated by Time's Rana Foroohar (who had her own take on the discussion).

    Bremmer agreed that economists have gotten ahead of themselves. But he says the main risks in 2014 will be political, not economic. His biggest concern is that the Obama Administration's foreign policy agenda appears to be less ambitious in the president's second term. And he says the revelations from Edward Snowden have hurt the U.S. overseas. "Other countries don't love us being the world's cop," says Bremmer. "But they really don't like us being the world's private eye."

    Bremmer thinks the fallout will lead to fewer opportunities for U.S. companies abroad. On top of that, Bremmer noted that many emerging market countries wild hold elections this year, includingBrazil. He says that could lead to more political instability than usual.

    Roubini and Bremmer differed on China. Bremmer believes China will likely rein in its financial sector. "Will there be banks that go bankrupt? Yes," says Bremmer. "The Chinese are at the point where they are ready to pick winners and losers. That will cause instability."

    Roubini, on the other hand, thinks that China, worried about growth, is likely to put off economic reform for another few years. "We won't see a hard landing this year," says Roubini. "But 50% of China's economic growth comes from the government. That's not sustainable."

    Problems in China may offer an upside to the U.S. Bremmer says Chinese leaders are once again looking to the U.S. for growth. He thinks that will lead to more Chinese investment in the States.