印度经济为什么陷入困境

    继新兴市场增长放缓的忧虑引发全球性股市抛盘后，印度央行总裁拉吉拉姆•拉詹日前指责坚持执行缩减月度债券购买计划的美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）。“国际货币政策合作已经瓦解，”拉詹表示，并且补充说，“美国应当考虑它的政策对全世界其他地区产生的影响。”

    拉詹后来改口, 但他此番言论凸显了印度经济的脆弱性。理论上，美联储“逐步缩减”债券购买量，加上投资者预期利率上涨将导致资本逃离印度，流往美国。由于海外拥有更高的投资回报，投资者对印度卢比的需求将出现下降，进一步压低卢比和推升通胀。实际上，印度经济增长率在2013年已经下降到了4.5%，低于过去10年的平均值9%；通胀率已经高达9.9%。如果印度央行必须通过继续加息来支撑卢比，只会进一步损伤印度的经济增长步伐。

    不过，这样的两难境地也是印度自己一手缔造的。

    虽然印度经济增长一直很强劲，但它的全国基础设施严重落后。道路坑坑洼洼、交通堵塞不堪、公共交通服务糟糕，供水供电缺乏稳定，此外，教育标准不断下降【微软（Microsoft）新任CEO萨蒂亚纳德拉是个例外，并非常态】，印度的国家基础并没有跟上私营部门的发展步伐。

    部分原因是因为人口过多和资源紧张，其余则是因为公共和私营部门对发展基础设施缺乏兴趣。电信和信息科技等行业持续增长，但这些增长只能让印度人口中的一小部分人获益，大部分人仍身处贫困和农村被遗忘的角落。（印度的人均收入在金砖四国中最低。而且四分之三的农村人口生活在贫困中。）

    中国的人均收入没有高出太多，但中国的小城镇已经变成欣欣向荣的制造枢纽，使得中国能够最大化地利用自己的资源和劳动力。（中国制造业最近的收缩是由于信贷市场收紧造成的，并不是中国经济增长策略变化的征兆。缺乏这样一些关键的投资，印度经济的长期增长可能会受到阻碍。

    谈到通胀，印度的高速增长已经造成物价飙升，但由于财富集中在非常少数的一些人手中，普通印度人无法承担物价的上涨。作为对策，印度央行调高了利率，但这只会降低对所有经济领域的推动力。借贷成本的上升会侵蚀企业利润率，但不能遏制通胀，只要另外一个源头，也就是腐败，仍在推高物价。

    去年，印度在透明国际（Transparency International）清廉指数（Corruption Perception Index）调查的176个国家中排名第94位。一个更大的问题是虽然商界对于政府的腐败行为怨声载道，但他们仍然愿意借助贿赂绕过法律，结果导致腐败状况进一步恶化。涉及电信、建筑、煤矿和其他行业大公司的腐败丑闻司空见惯。毕马威（KPMG）2011年进行的一项研究显示，至少在某种程度上，私营部门实际上引起了印度的腐败。

    结果是贪腐文化甚至影响到了基本的政府服务，增加了商业经营成本。这种情况抬高了所有东西的价格，包括制成品、服务、电力、水和电话服务，造成了事实上的通胀。它也阻碍了外国投资，特别是来自美国和欧洲的机构投资。这些机构不喜贿赂，担心会违反本国的反腐败法。所有这些都给印度卢比带来了更大的压力。

    如果考虑到现在被抑制的需求，印度经济肯定还会保持增长，印度公司也将继续在国际舞台上竞争出击，但如果拉詹想在抑制通胀的同时将经济增长最大化，印度政府就必须解决好腐败问题，投资国内基础设施，提高劳动力利用率。不论是印度、还是美国，单凭货币政策并不能解决这些问题。（财富中文网）

    本文作者是一位政治和商业评论家。他曾在知名投行Lazard Freres和Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein就职，并曾服务于对冲基金Ramius。他现任中型市场电台运营商Board of Davidson Media Group的董事，拥有哥伦比亚商学院MBA学位。他还是两本惊悚小说的作者。

    In the wake of a global stock market selloff driven by worries over slower growth in emerging markets, the head of India's central bank, Raghuram Rajan, criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve as it pressed on with plans to dial back its monthly bond purchases: "International monetary cooperation has broken down," said Rajan, who added that "the U.S. should worry about the effects of its polices on the rest of the world."

    Rajan later backtracked, but his remarks highlight the vulnerabilities of India's economy. Theoretically, the Fed's taper, and investors' expectations of a rise in interest rates would cause capital to leave India for the U.S. With higher returns available abroad, investors' demand for India's rupee would fall, further weakening the currency and raising inflation. Already, India's economic growth has declined to 4.5% in 2013 from an average of 9% over the past decade; inflation is high at 9.9%. If India's central bank has to keep raising interest rates to prop up the rupee, it could further impair the nation's economic progress.

    India's Catch-22, however, is of its own making.

    While economic growth has been robust, its national infrastructure is severely underdeveloped. From crumbling roads, traffic congestion, and poor public transportation to unreliable electricity and water supply and declining educational standards (Microsoft's new CEO Satya Nadella being the exception, not the norm), India's national foundation has failed to keep pace with the financial prosperity of its private sector.

    Part of this is due to overpopulation and a strain on resources, but the rest is due to a lack of interest both in public and private spheres for developing infrastructure. Industries such as telecommunications and information technology continue to grow, but the benefits of that growth accrue to a small subset of the population, leaving the bulk of the country in poverty and rural limbo. (India's per capita income is the lowest of the BRICs nations. and three out of four people in rural areas live in poverty.)

    China's income per capita isn't that much better, but its small towns have become thriving manufacturing hubs that have allowed the country to maximize the use of its resources and labor force. (The recent contraction in Chinese manufacturing is the result of a tightening in credit markets, not an indictment of the country's growth strategy). Without such critical investments, India's long-term growth could be jeopardized.

    As for inflation, India's rapid growth has caused prices to soar, but since that wealth is concentrated in very few hands, average Indians cannot afford the higher prices. In response, the central bank has raised interest rates, but that will only lower the tide for all boats. Higher borrowing costs hurt business profitability but won't stop inflation as long as price hikes are also being fueled by another source: corruption.

    Last year, India ranked 94th out of 176 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. An even bigger problem is that while the business community complains bitterly about government corruption, it also exacerbates it through its willingness to pay bribes to bypass the law. Large corruption scandals involving major companies in telecommunications, construction, coal mining, and other industries are commonplace, and a 2011 study conducted by KPMG suggests that the private sector actually induces corruption in India, at least to some degree.

    The result is a culture of venality that affects even basic government services and increases the cost of doing business. This raises the price of everything, including produced goods, services, electricity, water, and telephone service to create de facto inflation. It also discourages foreign investment, especially from institutions in the U.S. and Europe, who dislike paying bribes and worry about violating anti-corruption laws in their home country. All this, in turn, puts even more pressure on the currency.

    The Indian economy will certainly keep growing, if for no other reason than pent-up demand, and Indian companies will continue to compete aggressively on the world stage, but if Rajan wants to curtail inflation and maximize that growth at the same time, then his government must address the problem of corruption properly, invest in the infrastructure of the nation, and expand the utilization of its workforce. Monetary policy alone -- in India or in the U.S. -- cannot solve these problems.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. Sanghoee sits on the Board of Davidson Media Group, a mid-market radio station operator and has an MBA from Columbia Business School. He is also the author of two thriller novels.