美国需要提防通胀，而不是通缩

    信不信由你，就在其他方面的通胀压力不断堆积的时候，大宗商品价格正在向上突破。不相信？看看金价吧。今年初以来，金价涨幅已经超过了7%，而标普500指数（S&P 500）则下跌了1.5%。同时，路透商品研究局（CRB）商品价格指数年初以来已经上涨了4%。

    眼下的情况让人心神不宁，但跟通缩没什么关系。

    如果美联储（Federal Reserve）主席詹尼特•耶伦决定将削减购债规模的计划倒转过来以便“拯救”股市，由此产生的影响可能造成美元汇率下跌，同时促使投资者追逐收益率，由此可能导致抗通胀资产的价格上升，引发新一轮降低经济增长速度的大宗商品价格上涨。

    2011-2012年见顶后，大宗商品价格在2013年跌入低谷。受去年价格下跌影响，阶段性比较变得特别敏感，因此大宗商品价格的小幅上升看起来就是同比增长。但它只是一个表面现象，而非实际的经济走势。但制定政策的依据以及市场陷入恐慌的原因就是表面情况如何，而不是它实际表现如何。

    投资研究机构Hedgeye首席执行官基思•麦卡洛认为，我们不太可能看到2011-2012年那样的真正通胀（当时美联储并没有发现物价在上涨的情况）。但随着人们意识到大宗商品价格上涨以及与之相伴的经济增速放缓和股价下跌，就会有人怀疑美联储将再次放松政策，以便为正在失去动力的经济提供支持。如果耶伦在压缩购债规模方面开倒车，股市可能会短暂上行。但美元将在全球范围内下跌，进而造成通胀率以更快的速度上升。

    美国总统奥巴马下令提高工资之前，工资上涨的速度就已经在逐步加快。储蓄率向着历史最低点下滑，消费再次取代了储蓄。2013年第三季度，美国居民总负债出现了18个季度以来的首次正增长。居民去杠杆化延续了5年后，再次出现了以信贷为动力的消费增长。如果消费者因为买涨不买跌而开始担心通胀，过度消费现象就可能加剧。

    通胀可能造成股市估值水平下降，而这和大多数华尔街策略分析师的预期正好相反。去年经济增长和通胀上升的速度双双加快，乐观的投资者因此赋予股市较高的市盈率，物价也因此上涨。现在，大宗商品价格上涨的速度正在加快，但美国经济增长出现了放缓迹象。这种趋势不是什么好事，这种局面也不容易对付，而且政界没有谁希望听到别人说政策方面最好的方案就是按兵不动，静待这个阶段走到尽头。因为这样会增加美联储采取其他补救措施的风险。

    由于华尔街的预期过于乐观，投资者并没有为经济减速和股票估值水平下降做好准备。麦卡洛说，大宗商品价格似乎跑在了美联储政策的前面——如果耶伦倒转压缩购债规模的政策，针对通胀的投资就可能激增。随着股市下跌，CRB商品价格指数等广义通胀指标的最低点正在不断上升。

    Believe it or not, commodity prices are breaking out right now as other inflationary pressures continue to build. Don't believe it? Take a look at gold prices. They have already risen over 7% year-to-date as the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 1.5%. Meanwhile, the CRB Commodity Index is up 4% year-to-date.

    Something is stirring here, and it doesn't have the whiff of deflation.

    If U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen decides to "rescue" equity markets by reversing the central bank's plans to scale down its bond purchases, the impact could knock down the U.S. Dollar and trigger investors to chase yield, which would drive up inflation hedge assets and likely spark another round of growth-slowing commodity inflation.

    After peaking in 2011-2012, commodity prices cratered in 2013. Because of last year's price declines, period-to-period comparisons are especially sensitive, so even a moderate commodity price increase looks inflationary year over year. This is an optical effect, not yet an economic reality. But policy -- and market panics -- are made in response to how things appear, not how things actually are.

    Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says we are unlikely to see 2011-2012 style actual inflation (which the Fed did not see at the time). But, as people perceive the rise in commodity prices alongside decelerating growth and declining stock prices, there will be speculation that the Fed will again loosen policy to support flagging growth. If Yellen reverses plans to scale down the Fed's bond purchases, a process dubbed, "tapering," your stocks will lift temporarily. But globally the dollar will suffer, causing inflation to rise faster.

    Wage inflation was rising at the margin even before President Obama ordered wage increases. Savings rates are declining toward historic lows as consumption is again displacing savings. During the third quarter of 2013, aggregate household debt growth turned positive for the first time in 18 calendar quarters. After five years of household deleveraging, credit-driven consumption growth is back, and consumer overspending could spike if consumers start to worry about inflation as consumers chase rising prices.

    Inflation is likely to lead to stock market multiple compression, the very opposite of what most Wall Street strategists are calling for. Last year saw both growth and inflation accelerating, leading optimistic investors to assign higher price-to-earnings ratio multiples to stocks and driving prices higher. Now commodity inflation is rising, but U.S. growth is showing signs of slowing. This is not a good place to be, and not an easy one to work out of, and no politician wants to hear that the best policy option is to sit tight and wait it out. This increases the risk of new tinkering by the Fed.

    Thanks to over-optimistic Wall Street projections, investors are not positioned for slower growth and stock price multiple compression. McCullough says commodity prices seem to be front-running Fed policy -- an "inflation trade" that could explode if Yellen reverses the taper. Broad measures of inflation, such as CRB prices, continue to make higher lows as stock prices decline.