为什么说金价有可能再次腰斩

    2013年遭到重创的黄金出现了温和反弹——年初以来，金价已经上涨了近10%。

    不过，目前的反弹能让金价再次进入持续多年的上升通道吗？还是说，这个反弹只是昙花一现？为了回答这个问题，分析师克劳德•埃布在他新发表的研究报告里探讨了金价和黄金股的关系。埃布的结论是，从历史上看，金价和黄金股一直联系紧密。

    The golden bloodbath of 2013 has given way to a modest recovery for the precious metal, as the price of gold has risen nearly 10% since the beginning of the new year.

    But is this turnaround the beginning of another years-long run-up in the price of gold or just a temporary blip? In a new research paper, analyst Claude Ebb looks at the price of gold as it relates to gold mining stocks to find an answer. He points out that, historically, the price of gold and gold miners' stocks have been closely linked.

    上图为1993年9月至2013年9月金价与黄金股指数之间的走势曲线。其中蓝色曲线为纽约证券交易所ARCA黄金类股票指数，红色为黄金价格。数据来源：彭博

    可以看到，金价和黄金股的关联性很高。但最近几年，黄金股下跌的幅度远远超过了金价。因此，如果今后二者继续维系这样的紧密联系，要么金价得下跌50%，要么黄金股得上涨100%左右。

    那么，是金价影响黄金股呢？还是黄金股影响金价呢？埃布提出了以下观点：

    • 金价体现的是已开采黄金的供给和需求关系

    • 黄金股的价值体现的是未开采黄金的现值

    如果这两点正确无误，那么金价最终会跟随黄金股的脚步，而不是相反。毕竟，如果黄金股的价格告诉我们的是未来黄金的现值，我们就应该认为金价将随着黄金开采公司的价值相向而动。

    当然，黄金股和黄金本身的联系有可能已经土崩瓦解。也许投资者只是对黄金开采公司的管理层或者它们黄金开采业务的盈利能力失去了信心。研究及投资机构Behind the Numbers证券分析师威尔•贝克尔去年发表过一篇有关黄金开采公司的报告。他在报告中指出，这些公司面临着一连串的问题，比如无法获得资金，采矿权使用费和开采税上升以及金矿石质量下降等。

    实际上，金矿石的平均品位已经降至每吨1.5克。贝克尔在报告中写道：“这么说吧，1950年美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的平均金矿石品位是每吨12克，2009年是每吨3克左右。”换句话说，世界上易于开采的黄金可能已经很少了。当然，对金价来说这可能是个非常有利的迹象，原因是全球黄金供应的增长速度可能大幅度下降。

    说到底，黄金的价值将取决于今后它在全球货币体系中发挥的作用。如果开采黄金的难度真的越来越大，有钱人就会用其他漂亮金属来打造珠宝首饰，同时通过其他一些投资渠道来对冲通胀和尾部风险。

    相反，在政府让其他形式的货币全面贬值的情况下，如果黄金最终成为投资者的唯一避难所，它的价值就会大幅度上升。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    As you can see, the price of gold and gold miner stocks are highly correlated, but the decline in stock prices in recent years has far outpaced the decline in the price of the actual metal. So, if this relationship is to hold in the future, either the price of gold will have to depreciate by 50%, or the price of mining stocks will have to appreciate by roughly 100%.

    So, then, does the price of gold drive the price of gold mining companies or vice versa? Ebb suggests the following:

    • The price of gold reflects the supply and demand of already mined gold

    • The value of a gold miner reflects the present value of yet-to-be-mined gold

    If these two ideas are accurate, then the price of gold will eventually follow the price of gold mining stocks rather than vice versa. After all, if the price of gold mining stocks tells us the present value of gold in the future, then we should expect the price of gold to follow the value of gold mining companies.

    Of course, there's always the possibility that the relationship between gold mining stocks and gold itself has broken down. Perhaps investors have simply lost faith in the management of the gold mining companies or their ability to profitably mine gold. Will Becker, a securities analyst at Behind the Numbers, released a research report last year on gold mining companies in which he argued that mining companies are facing a slew of troubles, like an inability to secure financing, increased royalty fees, taxes on mining, and the declining quality of gold ore.

    In fact, the average grade of gold mined has fallen to 1.5 grams per tonne of ore. "To put this in perspective, average ore grades in the U.S., Canada, and Australia were at 12 grams per tonne in 1950 and around 3 grams per tonne in 2009," Becker writes. In other words, the world might simply be running low on easily mineable gold. That, of course, could be a very bullish sign for gold prices, as the increase in world supply of gold could be slowing dramatically.

    In the end, gold's value will hinge on the future role the precious metal will play in the global monetary system. If gold is, in fact, becoming more difficult to mine, the wealthy will find some other pretty metal to adorn themselves with and some other investment to hedge against inflation and tail risks.

    If, on the other hand, gold will ultimately function as the only refuge for investors in a world where governments are debasing every other form of currency, then the precious metal stands to appreciate far beyond its current value.