拨开中国经济数据迷雾

    最近这些天，阅读中国的经济新闻可能会扭伤你的脖子。某个月，怀疑论者高举虚弱的工业产出数值，惊呼“中国经济即将崩溃！”下个月又轮到乐观主义者大肆庆贺中国GDP增长7.7%这样的向好数据。

    中国经济前后摇动的最新迹象是近期的一波股票抛售潮。过去几个月，中国股市下跌了15%，跌幅是其他新兴市场的两倍，似乎是股票交易者发出的恐慌信号。他们担心中国可能无法抵御即将到来的挑战，包括收紧失控的信贷，大规模的经济转型，也就是摆脱对庞大的基础设施项目的依赖，走上一条更具可持续性的经济发展之路。

    过去六个月的中国经济报告时好时坏，但它们总体上在暗示，乌云就在前方。本文试图逐一解析各项经济指标的近期走势，一窥中国经济目前的状况及其未来的发展方向。

采购经理人指数

    半年前，中国的采购经理人指数 (PMI，这是衡量一国经济实力的重要指标之一)冲上16个月以来的最高点。经历了两个令人失望的季度之后，中国经济似乎正在趋稳。来自PMI的好消息提振了市场的信心，促使人们相信习近平主席和李克强总理领衔的中国新一代领导集体有能力应对猖獗的影子银行体系和银行超额放贷问题，同时又不至于扼杀经济增速。当时的主要忧虑似乎是，美联储削减国债购买规模的计划到底会对中国经济造成多大的伤害。

房地产

    紧跟在这份好心情之后的是一直延续到去年年末的房价疯涨势头。去年12月份，北京和广州的房价同比上涨了近30%。与此同时，一些三四线城市的房价开始下跌。中国的房地产市场现在出现了一道裂痕：最富裕的城市仍然红红火火，而一些小城市已经开始趔趄。“房价持续下跌意味着银行将出现更多的不良贷款，它们将不得不进一步收缩贷款规模，”清华-布鲁金斯公共政策研究中心(Brookings-Tsinghua Center)代理主任、中国人民大学（Renmin University）经济学教授陶然这样说道。“如果最终出现信贷紧缩，房地产泡沫可能就会破灭。”这一幕可能会率先从小城市开始，然后逐渐向大城市蔓延。房价上涨对任何其它经济体而言都是经济基本面健康的体现，但在中国，飙涨的房价意味着，房地产市场崩溃的几率正在与日俱增。

救助

    今年1月份，一位未透露身份的接盘人（很有可能是政府）救助了一个规模高达5亿美元、名为“诚至金开1号”(Credit Equals Gold No. 1)的风险投资产品。虽然中国避免了信托行业的第一起违约事件——根据上一次测算，专为有钱人寻找高息投资机会的中国信托业已经发展到大约1.6万亿美元的规模——但它并不是一个鼓舞人心的消息。其他潜伏在暗处的不良投资是否也面临着类似的命运？它是不是让人联想到贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns )旗下那两只于2007年年中崩盘、暗示其他金融机构存在同样问题的对冲基金？

还是采购经理人指数

    二月初，中国的PMI指数下降到了50.5，抵达6个月以来的最低点（PMI指数50为荣枯分水岭。大于50说明经济在发展，小于50说明经济在衰退）。就在这些数字出炉前，中国政府刚刚发布消息称，中国2013年GDP增速为7.7%，依然令人印象深刻。这个PMI数字非常可怕，因为它预示着，随着中国收紧信贷，同时逐渐摆脱对出口的依赖，中国经济有可能严重放缓。谁都知道中国最终需要调整经济发展模式，但这个过程不一定会顺利。不断下降的PMI指数就是在提醒人们注意这一点。

股票抛售

    最后来谈一谈新兴市场在过去几个月的股票抛售浪潮：仔细审视相关数据之后，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)发现了一个发人深省的问题。分析师重点研究了中国H股指数和A股指数之间的股价表现差异（H股在香港上市，由全球投资者广泛持有；A股在大陆上市，不对外国人开放）。他们发现，在截止2月中旬的两个月，A股指数仅下跌了6%，而H股指数则下跌了16%。这些分析师总结称，股市并不是在刻意惩罚中国，而是在惩罚所有其他新兴市场时顺带着打压了一下中国。他们写道，“对H股指数与A股指数跌幅相差10个百分点这一现象唯一有意义的解释是，全球投资者正在不加区分地抛售新兴市场股票。”

    从许多指标来看，中国经济目前起伏不定，但股市多少让我们对世界第二大经济体的前景抱有一丝乐观情绪。（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    You can get whiplash from reading the economic news coming out of China these days. One month the skeptics hold up weak industrial output and exclaim, "Crash ahead!" The next month, the bulls are back celebrating things like China's 7.7% GDP growth last year.

    The latest sign of China's economic to-and-fro was the recent stock selloff. Chinese shares dropped by 15% over the last couple months, doubling the decline of other emerging market shares, in what seemed like a panic signal from traders worried about China's ability to weather upcoming obstacles, including tightening runaway credit and undergoing a massive pivot away from huge infrastructure projects to more sustainable economic growth.

    The reports have been back-and-forth for the past six months, but overall they hint at some dark clouds ahead. Here, then, is a breakdown of the indicators' recent history, where the economy is now, and where it could be headed.

PMI

    Six months ago, China's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, a key gauge of the economy's strength, was hitting 16-month highs. The economy looked to be stabilizing after a couple disappointing quarters. The PMI news boosted confidence that the country's new leadership in President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang could tackle rampant shadow banking and banks' excess-lending without killing growth. The chief concern back then seemed to be how much the Fed's cutback in bond purchases, or tapering, would hurt China's economy.

Real estate

    The good spirits were followed by skyrocketing housing prices through the end of last year. Prices rose nearly 30% year over year in December in Beijing and Guangzhou. At the same time, prices in some of the country's smaller third- and fourth-tier cities fell. There's now a break in the market: China's most affluent cities are still booming while smaller ones are starting to falter. "If they continue to drop, that will mean banks will have more nonperforming loans, and they will have to further contract lending," says Ran Tao, Acting Director at Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and professor of economics at Renmin University. "Finally, if there's a credit crunch, the housing bubble may burst." That could start in the smaller cities, and then make its way to the bigger ones. Rising real estate prices can be healthy for any economy, but in China they're rising so fast that the odds of a crash are growing with them.

Bailouts

    In January, an unnamed source -- most likely the government -- bailed out a $500-million risky bank investment called Credit Equals Gold No. 1. While China averted the first default in its trust industry-- an industry that last measured around $1.6 trillion in size and is tailored for rich people searching for high-interest investments -- the news wasn't encouraging. What does it say about other bad bets lurking in the shadows? Was this reminiscent of two Bear Stearns hedge funds blowing up in mid-2007, which intimated problems elsewhere in the financial system?

PMI, again

    In the beginning of February, China's PMI fell to 50.5, a six-month low (above 50 signals growth). The numbers came just after the news that China posted still-impressive 7.7% GDP growth in 2013. The PMI number was scary because it portended a potential deep slowdown as the country tightens credit and shifts away from a reliance on exports. Everyone knows China eventually needs to shift its economy, but that process won't necessarily be smooth. The falling PMI was a reminder of that.

Stock selloff

    And about that emerging markets selloff the past couple months: Deutsche Bank took a closer look at the figures and found something revealing. The analysts focused on the difference between the stock performance of China's H share index and A share index -- the difference being that H shares are listed in Hong Kong and widely held by global investors, whereas A shares are listed in the mainland and not open to foreigners. What they found was that during the two months leading to mid-February, the A share index fell only 6% while the H shares dropped 16%. They concluded that the stock market wasn't punishing China, but throwing it out with all the other emerging markets. They wrote, "The only meaningful explanation for the 10% under performance of the H share index is the indiscriminate selling of emerging market equities by global investors."

    The stock market offers some optimism for the Chinese economy facing plenty of other ups and downs.