巴菲特绝口不谈股市

    这些天，奥马哈先知——沃伦•巴菲特的水晶球里一定是一片模糊。

    周六上午，巴菲特发表了致伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）股东的年度公开信。他在信中基本上没有提到股市，也没有预测股票动向。像过去一样，巴菲特说他仍然对美国充满信心。2013年，伯克希尔在工厂和设备方面投资了110亿美元。巴菲特指出，其中89%的资金都用在了美国。

    身为伯克希尔的董事长兼首席执行官，巴菲特在信中写道：“虽然我们也有海外投资，但美国才是机遇的主要源泉。”但他没有说股票是不是目前美国最好的投资对象。显然，拥有一家让伯克希尔成为买主的公司是一件了不起的事。这封股东信中有一段话谈到了巴菲特及其合作伙伴查理•芒格对投资的看法——本刊已经在上周早些时候节选刊登了这部分内容。巴菲特列举了自己最成功的两项投资，它们都出现在房地产领域。

    此前巴菲特每年致伯克希尔股东的信也曾经要么对股市避而不谈，要么不会预测股票走势。但在过去的几年中，他至少曾经用过一些文字来专门探讨股市。两年前，巴菲特用三页半的篇幅详细解释了为什么他认为投资于股票要远好于黄金或债券（请参见《沃伦•巴菲特：股票为什么胜过黄金和债券》（Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds））。他还说，自己看好美国楼市。

    去年，巴菲特用了四段内容来专门讨论股票。他还说，他认为股市仍将“表现良好”。而就在一年前，巴菲特对股市的热情似乎还在下降。他在信中写道，股市投资者会时不时地遇到挫折。如果这是意在暗示2013年股市将回落，那么巴菲特的预言没有成真。2013年，标普500指数（S&P 500）的总回报率达到了32%。

    The Oracle of Omaha's crystal ball must be cloudy these days.

    In Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) shareholders, released Saturday morning, he says little about the stock market or where shares might be headed. Buffett does say, as he has in the past, that he still believes in America. Berkshire spent $11 billion on plant and equipment in 2013, and Buffett notes that 89% of that money was spent in the U.S.

    "Though we invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America," writes Buffett, who is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire. But he doesn't say whether stocks are the best investment opportunity in America these days. Clearly, owning a company that makes stuff that Berkshire buys is swell. There's a section about how Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger think about investing, which Fortune excerpted earlier this week. Buffett cites two of his best investments, and both are in real estate.

    Buffett has gone other years without commenting on the stock market or making a prediction where shares are headed in Berkshire's annual letter. But in the last few years, Buffett has dedicated at least some of his letter to opining on the market. Two years ago, Buffett spent three-and-a- half pages on a detailed explanation of why he thought stocks were a much better investment than, say, gold or bonds. (See Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds.) He also said he was bullish on U.S. housing.

    Last year, Buffett devoted four paragraphs to the case for stocks, and he said that he thought the market would still "do well."

    But even a year ago, Buffett's enthusiasm for the market seemed to wane. He wrote that investors should expect setbacks in the market from time to time. If that was supposed to be a wink that one could come in 2013, Buffett missed that call. In 2013, the S&P 500's total return was 32%.