Facebook市值被高估了吗？

    Facebook的价值被高估了吗？这家社交网络巨头2012年年中上市以来，股东们的收益其实相当不错。过去六个月，这只股票的价格一直在稳步攀升，当前股价较IPO价格上涨了80%以上。但就在两周前，一则消息让投资者不由得心里一顿：Facebook创始人马克•扎克伯格在他的主页上宣布，他的公司即将收购WhatsApp，一家年轻但人气急升的社交网络。收购价高达190亿美元，令人震惊。

    这不只是一个消化这则消息的问题。这家公司的股价已经体现出了投资者对其增长前景的豪迈预期。正如收购WhatsApp所示，在某种程度上，Facebook正在通过收购努力证明这些设想的合理性——它这样做有很充分的理由。至少从一个尺度来看，投资者预期的一个小波动就有可能撇去近十分之一的股价。

    就很多方面而言，收购WhatsApp都合情合理。规模对社交网络至关重要。把WhatsApp收入囊中只会让Facebook的市场地位变得更加难以撼动。“庞大且迅速增长的用户群有助于吸引新的广告商和零售商，” 尼德汉姆投资公司(Needham)分析师劳拉•马丁最近在一份报告中写道。“我们相信，Facebook的网络规模代表着一项显著的竞争优势，形成了一道难以跨越的市场壁垒。”

    然而，依靠天价收购来实现规模的增长有可能形成一个危险的循环。“这就像一只小狗不断地追逐自己的尾巴，”宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)沃顿商学院(The Wharton School)名誉教授劳伦斯•贺比尼亚克这样评价。如果更有趣的社交网络突然出现在这个不断增长的全家福之中，Facebook就不得不继续收购其他公司，以跟上市场趋势。

    尼克斯基金公司(Kynikos)掌门人、著名的做空投资者吉姆•查诺斯一直怀疑规模的重要性。他说，他担心“这些企业无法‘依靠扩大规模’实现盈利。”“每个人都把亚马逊( Amazon)看成自己估值框架的安全港，惘然不顾那些互联网明日黄花的最终命运。”（查诺斯目前与Facebook或类似公司没有关联。）

    投资者目前还不一定要选择站在哪一边。但鉴于投资者对Facebook增长前景抱有巨大的预期，认真考虑一下这家公司股价实际上有多么脆弱有好处。评估Facebook收购WhatsApp这宗交易时，分析师使用了一个不同于以往的衡量尺度。他们并没有采用收入倍数法为WhatsApp估值，而是计算出Facebook究竟为收购每一个WhatsApp用户支付了多少钱。这个神奇的数字是42美元（用收购价190亿美元除以4.5亿用户）。

    鉴于WhatsApp的运营状况（每位用户注册一年后，只能为该公司贡献99美分的收入），这个数字似乎太高了。但根据Facebook目前1,670亿美元的估值，我们可以计算出，每位Facebook用户价值122美元，前提是假设这家公司的用户人数如Evercore公司所预测的那样，在今年年底增长至14亿左右。

    但愿扎克伯格能够给WhatsApp用户抹上一层魔力酱，从而使Facebook公司也能够抬高他们的价值。但要做到这一点恐怕没有那么简单。首先，Facebook用户更有价值的原因在于，他们能够为公司带来更多收入。每位Facebook用户目前能够为公司营收贡献6.73美元。Evercore公司预计，至今年年底，这个数字有望增长25%，达到8.44美元。届时，每位Facebook用户的价值将是他们营收贡献值的14.5倍左右。

    此外，根据Evercore公司的预测，Facebook的用户人数将增长16%。投资者肯定希望这些数字无止境地增长下去。

    假如这些估计有点过头：每位用户的收入贡献值实际上增长了20%，至8.08美元。这个数字依然很高，但并没有达到投资者目前设想的水平。再假如用户数量实际上增长了10%，而不是15%。使用相同的倍数（14.5倍）来计算，每位Facebook用户价值117美元。考虑到用户总数（13亿）也低于预期，那么这家公司的估值就在1.51亿美元左右。再加上Facebook持有的70亿美元现金，这家公司的市值就是1.58亿美元左右，几乎比目前的价格低10%。

    一个需要不断扩大规模的商业模式一旦出现微调，那就可能带来危险的后果，尤其是当投资者抱着宏大的增长预期，以最高价购买股票的时候。（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    Is Facebook overvalued? The social network's shareholders have fared well since the company went public in mid-2012. Shares are up more than 80% since its IPO and have climbed steadily over the last six months. But investors have passed since Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's founder, announced on his page two weeks ago that his company was buying WhatsApp, a young but popular social network. The price tag: a shocking $19 billion.

    It's not just a matter of digesting the news. Investors already have lofty growth expectations built into the company's stock price. And as the WhatsApp acquisition shows, Facebook (FB) is working hard to justify those assumptions partly with acquisitions -- and it has good reason to do that. Based on at least one metric, a small blip to investors' forecasts could skim nearly a tenth off the stock price.

    In many ways, the WhatsApp acquisition makes sense. Scale is important to social networking. Bringing WhatsApp into the fold only makes Facebook that much harder to touch. "The large and rapidly growing user base attracts new advertisers and retailers," Laura Martin of Needham recently said in a report. "We believe the scale of Facebook's network represents a significant competitive advantage and a significant barrier to entry."

    However, paying top dollar to grow can turn into a dangerous cycle. "It can be like a dog chasing its tail," said Lawrence Hrebiniak, emeritus professor at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. If more interesting social networks photo-bomb this growing family portrait, Facebook will have to continue to purchase other companies to keep up.

    Jim Chanos, the prominent bearish investor who runs hedge fund Kynikos, is skeptical that scale matters in general. He says he is worried "about the inability of these businesses to 'scale' profitability." "Everyone points to Amazon as their valuation framework safe-harbor, not the scores of Internet road kill." (Chanos is not currently involved with Facebook or similar companies.)

    Investors don't necessarily have to choose a side just yet. But it helps to consider how delicate Facebook's stock price actually is, considering the outsize growth expectations for the company. Following Facebook's acquisition of WhatsApp, analysts started to kick around a metric different than one that's often used. Rather than value WhatsApp based on a revenue multiple, analysts showed how much Facebook was paying to acquire each individual WhatsApp user. That magic number was $42 per user ($19 billion for 450 million users).

    It seems like a lot considering WhatsApp's business: It takes in 99 cents per user one year after they have signed on. But Facebook's users are worth $122 apiece at its current enterprise value of $167 billion, assuming the company hits Evercore's expectations of around 1.4 billion users by the end of this year.

    The hope is that Zuckerberg will add some kind of magic sauce to WhatsApp users so Facebook can jack up their value too. But it may not be that simple. First, Facebook's users are worth more because they bring in more money for the company. Each Facebook user currently adds $6.73 to the top line. Evercore assumes this number will grow a quarter by the end of this year to $8.44, making each Facebook user worth some 14.5 times the revenue they contribute.

    Add that to the 16% more people Evercore assumes will join Facebook, and investors have to hope things continue on the up and up.

    Say those estimates are a bit off: Revenue per user grows 20% to $8.08. It is still a lot, but not what investors currently assume. And say that users grow a tenth rather than 15%. Each Facebook user at the same multiple (14.5 times) is worth $117, and there are fewer to boot (1.3 billion users), valuing the company at about $151 billion. Add back Facebook's $7 billion of cash, and the market cap of the company is about $158 billion, nearly 10% below its current price.

    Small tweaks to a business model that needs to be scaled can be dangerous, especially when investors are paying top prices based on lofty growth assumptions.