为什么说美股牛市可能明天就会终结

    入市时机对于很多投资者而言是一门近似于算命或塔罗牌的神秘学问。理财专家总是警告散户：不要随便尝试。美股上涨已进入第六年，但徘徊于历史高点附近的牛市看起来日益脆弱。（欲了解空头担忧详情，请参见2014年4月7日即将出版的《财富》（Fortune）杂志文章《股市必跌五大理由》。

    从基本面投资者、定量分析师到技术分析师都做出了各自的解读，种种图表都指向“死亡交叉”、与1929年股市相似以及其他表明股市走势转向疲软的危险信号。但很少有人敢于预测市场是否会下跌、何时下跌、为何下跌以及下跌多少。毕竟，过去几个月来，每个所谓的市场“顶部”最后都变成了股市上涨过程中的中间小站，空头听起来就像是嘟嘟囔囔的后座乘客：“还没到吗？”

    不过，汤姆•狄马克是一个例外。这位精准掌握市场时机的分析人士曾经提前几个月就准确预测了标普500指数的2011年底部，误差仅1个点左右。本周，他告诉《财富》杂志，多头已经来日无多。“我们即将看空，”DeMark Analytics公司CEO狄马克预测；这家公司专门为交易员和投资者提供市场指标工具。

    他没有止步于此。在分析标普指数的过程中，他圈出了一个未来市场的轴心点：指数1,931点。“有一点很清楚，下一轮上涨，也就是我们目前所处的这轮上涨，将是一个大顶部，”狄马克说。“看起来这将是一个非常重要的顶部，至少要持续3个月。”他补充说，这期间跌幅至少将达到11%。

    但在下跌之前，标普500指数必须上破3月7日的历史高点1,878点(狄马克瞄准的是1,882点)，然后下破：“现在的回旋将迎来最后一轮猛冲，”他说。“可能还有一周时间。”

    就算你没有听说过狄马克，可能也已经看到过他的研究，特别是一幅将2013年道琼斯指数走势与1928-1929年走势相叠加的图，2013年的走势与导致大萧条的历史性股灾之前的市场表现惊人的相似。

    “不能太把它当真，”狄马克试图淡化这幅图的意义。这图自去年秋天以来快速传播，交易员和分析师们也在研究报告中反复提及。(狄马克补充说，走势在1月份出现了分化。)

    当然，狄马克现在预测的“顶部”也可能只是牛市重现前的一个更长的停歇期，只不过不像近几年股市经历的停歇期那么短暂而已。有理由怀疑，市场在不远的未来或许根本就不会调整，因为一人见之悲观，另一人或许就见之乐观。许多投资者仍在瞄着1月末新兴市场推动的近乎6%的下跌，考虑这是否算得上一次调整。

    “在我们看来，牛市观点仍是少数，”S&P Capital IQ首席股票策略是萨姆•斯托沃最近在一份致客户的报告中写道。“不完全调查样本显示，大量投资者仍在等待‘大调整'的到来。”因此，斯托沃变得更乐观了：他预计标普500指数将高涨至2,030点。然后，这个指数将必须大幅下跌，跌破1,627点后他才会考虑多头回归。他说，直到那个时候，每次调整才是买入机会。

    狄马克承认自己以前也犯过错，他给了当前牛市最多再两周的时间，两周后就会开始回落。他说：“通常我会在它发生前就提前知道。”

    不过，不管会发生什么，大多数投资者都无法预见。那么，最佳的策略是什么？尽可能久地享受牛市，最终多头还是会回来的。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    Timing the market, to many investors, is a science akin to fortune-telling or tarot cards. Financial experts warn retail shareholders constantly: Don't try this at home. Yet with the market going on a sixth year of gains and hovering near record-high levels, the bull seems more vulnerable every day. (For more on those concerns, see "Five reasons the market must fall"in the April 7, 2014 issue of Fortune.)

    Investors from the fundamentalists to the quants to the technical analysts have offered their readings of the tea leaves, circulating charts pointing to the "death cross," 1929 market parallels and other red flags that signal a market retreat. Still, few dare to make predictions about if, when, why or how much the market will drop. After all, in the last few months, each supposed market top has turned out to be just another rest stop on the climb up, leaving the bears sounding like whiny backseat drivers: "Are we there yet?"

    Tom DeMark is an exception. The market timing precisionist who famously called the S&P 500's 2011 bottom within a point or so, months before it happened, told Fortune this week that the bull had just a few days left to live. "We're about to become bearish," predicts DeMark, CEO of DeMark Analytics, which provides market indicator tools to traders and investors.

    He didn't stop there. Analyzing the course of the S&P, he circled a specific point at which he expects the market to pivot: 1,931 on the index. "It’s pretty clear that this next rally, the one we're currently in, will be a good top," DeMark says. "And it looks like it's going to be a pretty important top that should last at least three months." During that time, brace for a decline of at least 11%, he adds.

    Before that happens, though, the S&P 500 must break its March 7 record of 1,878 (DeMark is eyeing 1,882) -- and then break it again: "The gyrations here are setting up for one final burst," he says. "It may be another week yet."

    Even if you've never heard of DeMark, you might still be familiar with his work -- in particular, a chart overlaying the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2013 with stock movements in 1928 and 1929, showing an uncanny similarity to market performance just before the historic crash that led to the Great Depression.

    "That was more for entertainment," says DeMark, who has tried to play down the significance of the chart since it went viral back in the fall, and continues to be referenced in notes by traders and analysts. (The pattern, however, diverged in January, DeMark adds.)

    To be sure, the "top" DeMark foresees now may just portend a bigger breather than stocks have had for the last few years, before the bull comes roaring back. And there's reason to be skeptical that the market will correct at all in the near future, as one man's pessimism is another man's bull case. Many investors are still squinting at the almost 6% emerging markets-driven drop in late January, wondering if it even qualifies as a correction.

    "This bull market remains unloved, in our opinion," Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ, wrote in a recent note to clients. "Anecdotal samplings of audience opinions still point to an overwhelming number of investors who are awaiting "the big one.'" That makes Stovall all the more bullish: He expects the S&P 500 to fly as high as 2,030. The index would have to slide pretty far downhill, to lower than 1,627, before he'd consider that the bull had come home from pasture. Until then, he says, every correction is a buying opportunity.

    DeMark, for his part, admits he's been wrong before, but grants the current bull market two weeks at best before it begins to recede. "Usually I know right before it happens," he says.

    Whatever comes to pass, however, most investors won't see it coming. The best strategy? Ride the market out as long as you can, because the bull inevitably comes back, eventually.