投资高手：谨慎看好希腊回归资本市场

    希腊政府上周宣布，它很快就会重返国际资本市场。消息引起了不小的振动。理应如此。希腊的债务重组给投资者带来了相当大的损失，也切断了它主动吸引民间资金的渠道——现在，希腊政府又可以开始自主发行债券，这可是一件大事。

    希腊的整体失业率为27%，年轻人失业率更是高达58%。在这种情况下，几乎不会有人笨到把希腊重新进行自主市场融资的可能性和希腊经济发出了安全信号混为一谈。不过，这并不是真正的风险之所在。风险在于，重新获得吸引民间资金的能力将延误尚未完成的经济改革，而不是为它提供支持。

    重新进入市场是这几年希腊致力于解决金融严重失衡问题的直接成果，也源于欧洲邻国和国际货币基金组织（IMF）的大力支持。

    为寻找日益稀缺的收益，投资者对低质量债券交易似乎有着无穷的胃口，这种市场现象引人关注，但不怎么具有可持续性，希腊和其他一些国家都已经从中受益。

    话虽如此，但我们应该记住，希腊政府用了六个多月的时间才跟机构债权人就迟迟没有落实的第二批国际援助资金的发放问题最终达成协议。在这个过程中，一些政策措施遭到了延误，另一些则只是部分得到了执行。

    鉴于谈判耗时漫长，希腊政府对商讨新的援助方案并不是非常热心。如果说重新获得通过债券筹集民间资金的能力有什么吸引力的话，那就是希腊可以借此降低对机构资金的依赖程度，同时在这个过程中削弱外界通过机构资金制约本国政策的能力。

    这样的行动很可能证明希腊政府目光短浅；而且，这样做还会让新的债券投资者在今后面临风险，原因有三。

    首先，虽然希腊证券的市场收益率暴跌，但从债务可持续性的角度来说，目前希腊政府所期望的借款成本（约为7%）仍然高于人们心里认定的安全水平。同时，这样的借款成本是机构债权人对希腊贷款的两倍。

    其次，希腊的现有债务仍然处于令人不安的高水平。同时，希腊的债务结构已经朝着增加高级机构债券【包括相当多的欧洲央行（European Central Bank）和IMF债务】的方向发生了显著变化，因而提高了重组难度，而且也变得更不灵活。

    最后，希腊经济依然增长乏力，导致希腊失去了提高债务人生活水平同时解决遗留债务问题的手段。

    这场危机给希腊带来了沉重灾难，让数百万民众陷入贫困，还迫使许多希腊人为了寻找更好的生活而移民。要彻底摆脱它的影响，希腊还有相当长的一段路要走。如果即将回归国际资本市场成了推迟必要改革的借口，那就是一场悲剧。（财富中文网）

    本文作者默罕默德•埃尔-埃利安曾在太平洋投资管理公司担任首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。现在，他是安联集团国际执行委员会成员、管理委员会首席经济顾问兼总裁全球发展委员会主席。他撰写的《市场冲撞之时》曾经登上《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》畅销书排行榜。

    译者：Charlie

    The Greek Government caused quite a stir this week when it announced it would soon re-enter the international capital markets. Rightly so. It is a big deal for a sovereign to be able to place its first voluntary bond issuance after having undergone a debt restructuring that imposed considerable losses on investors and shut voluntary access to private capital financing.

    With the overall unemployment rate at 27%, and with youth joblessness at 58%, few are daft enough to confuse Greece's likely return to voluntary market funding with an all clear sign on the economy. However, the risk is elsewhere -- that the renewed availability of private financing will defer rather than support the yet-to-be-completed economic reform effort.

    Renewed market access is a direct consequence of the multi-year efforts Greece has made in overcoming its massive financial imbalances, as well as enormous backing from European neighbors and the International Monetary Fund.

    Like others, the country is also benefiting from a notable, albeit less sustainable, market phenomenon -- namely, a seemingly insatiable investor appetite for the "down in quality" bond trade in search of increasingly scarce yield.

    Having said that, we should remember that it took over six months for the Greek government to finally reach agreement with its official creditors on the release of delayed funding under the country's second international bailout package. In the process, some policy measures were deferred; others only partially implemented.

    Given the protracted negotiations, the government is not very enthusiastic about negotiating a new package. If anything, the temptation is to use the renewed availability of private bond financing to reduce dependence on official funding and, in the process, dilute outsiders' policy conditionality that comes with that.

    There are three big reasons why such a course of action would likely prove short-sighted for Greece; and it would also expose new bond investors to risks down the road.

    First, notwithstanding the massive decline in market yields on Greek securities, the level at which the government would likely borrow these days (around 7%) is still above what would be deemed safe in terms of debt sustainability. It is also a multiple of what it pays on loans from official creditors.

    Second, the existing stock of Greek debt remains uncomfortably high. It is also less flexible now that its composition has shifted markedly in favor of more senior, and therefore harder to restructure, official debt (including considerable obligations to the European Central Bank and the IMF).

    Third, economic growth remains anemic, depriving Greece from the one remedy that allows debtors to improve living standards while also dealing with legacy obligations.

    Greece still has quite a way to go before it can decisively emerge from a crisis that has caused havoc, impoverished millions of citizens, and caused many others to migrate in search of a better life. It would be a tragedy if its impending return to international capital markets were to serve as an excuse to delay the required reforms.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian, former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, is a member of the International Executive Committee at Allianz and chief economic advisor to its management board, chair of the President's Global Development Council, and author of the NYT/WSJ bestseller When Markets Collide.